Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 3rd, 1:00 PM EST
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: LAC -6, O/U 40.5 via OddsShark
Network: CBS
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Justin Herbert struggled against a powerful Baltimore defense on Sunday night, but things are looking up this week, as the Chargers travel cross-country to New England. I typically don’t like betting on West Coast teams traveling east in December, but the Patriots’ defense is not the force they once were, and after losing both LB Matt Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez earlier in the year, there is very little to be concerned about. New England (surprisingly) comes in 9th against opposing QBs, but with Keenan Allen projecting as PFF’s best overall matchup against JC Jackson, this should be a prime bounce-back spot for Herbert. Despite the Chargers doing everything they can to lose on a weekly basis, Herbert continues to compete at an elite level, which unfortunately for him means putting his body on the line with a lot more rushing attempts. For fantasy purposes, that has resulted in 73 and 47 yards on the ground over the last two weeks, respectively. Assuming there isn’t terrible weather on the horizon, I’m leaning into Herbert as a QB1 this week, with a team-implied total of 22.75.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB2), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
Austin Ekeler has not looked like himself over the past two weeks, averaging just 67 all-purpose yards, no touchdowns, and a lost fumble in each game. Baltimore was an extremely difficult matchup on Sunday, but Green Bay’s young defensive line has been beatable, and Ekeler’s three-down skillset typically makes him matchup-proof. The Patriots come in 15th in PPG to opposing RBs, and were just able to hold Saquon Barkley to 52 yards on 13 touches, however, I expect Ekeler to revert back to his normal self this week, taking back his reign as the red zone King. The Chargers offensive line can’t block anybody, but Ekeler’s receiving chops make him a safe, high-end RB2 this week.
herbert to allen to ekeler 🤯
📺: @snfonnbc pic.twitter.com/9Jx7f3BwWx
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 27, 2023
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Jaylen Guyton (Start, FLEX), Josh Palmer (Sit, FLEX) Quentin Johnston (Sit), Gerald Everett (Start, Low-TE1), Donald Parham (Sit)
Keenan Allen has been absolutely dominant in his age-31 season, currently sitting at the WR2 on the year. He leads the league with 97 receptions, has had three straight weeks of over 100 yards receiving, and is averaging 11.7 targets/game in that span. We at QBList wish the best of luck to JC Jackson in coverage, who is a shell of what he was years ago, and is also listed as PFF’s number one rated WR/CB matchup on the week. Bill Belichick has a history of taking away your best player, but nothing the Patriots have put on film this season should concern you. Allen is a WR1 until further notice.
With Josh Palmer on IR, Jaylen Guyton has served as the Chargers’ de facto WR2. After missing Week 11 with a groin injury, Guyton finished third on the team with five targets against Baltimore. Unfortunately with those targets, he could only bring in one reception for four yards. Despite a down performance, it’s important to note that Guyton was receiving targets early in the game, and saw a red zone target as well (Herbert missed him for what should have been a touchdown), confirming his trust in the young WR. On paper, Guyton is at a disadvantage against SCB Myles Bryant, however, with Quentin Johnston in the doghouse, his volume on a high-scoring offense makes him a low-ceiling FLEX option this week.
*If Palmer is activated for this game, this bumps down Guyton for our purposes, and I will not be recommending either in your lineups.
Gerald Everett returned to action just in time to wreck my hometown Dynasty matchup last week, and I may never get over it. Although the Patriots come in 4th to opposing TEs this year, Everett has a favorable matchup against Ja’Whaun Bentley, PFF’s 40th-ranked coverage LB (out of 78 qualified players). Everett provides a sure-handed safety valve for Herbert, and will be a fringe TE1 against New England. After catching all four targets for 43 yards and a touchdown last week (ugh), he is a solid, but low-ceiling streaming option at a weak position.
GERALD. EVERETT.
📺: @snfonnbc pic.twitter.com/9MfRH3Dtqe
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 27, 2023
New England Patriots
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones (Sit), Bailey Zappe (Sit), Will Grier (Sit), Malik Cunningham (Sit)
Mac Jones was benched once again against the Giants last week, marking the fourth time this season. Bailey Zappe entered the game at halftime, just to put up a Jones-esque QBR of 20.5. For those of you unfamiliar with the QBR, that is not good.
Naturally, the New England coaching staff has been noncommittal as to who will be starting this week, but even at home against a defense ranking 30th in PPG to opposing QBs, I cannot recommend whoever gets the nod on Sunday. The Patriots have a team-implied point total of just 16.75 this week, higher than only the Bengals, Panthers, and Jets. Anything higher than a low-end QB2 finish would be a near miracle.
Bailey Zappe is out here doing his best Mac Jones impression pic.twitter.com/aSHamZlMfu
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) November 26, 2023
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB1), Ezekiel Elliott (Start, FLEX)
Rhamondre Stevenson has finally been putting together the RB1 performances we’ve been hoping for all season. Against the Giants, Rhamondre handled 26 touches (including five receptions) for 107 all-purpose yards and a touchdown, good enough for the RB7 finish on the week. This was his third straight game with over 100 yards from scrimmage, and most importantly, he has separated himself in this timeshare, out-touching Ezekiel Elliott 26-11 last week. This is another great matchup for Stevenson, with the Chargers ranking 20th in PPG to opposing RBs, but even more notably, they have given up the fourth most receiving yards to the position, which is where Stevenson may see a lot of success this week. Regardless of game script, we can expect another 15+ touches for Stevenson, and another RB1 finish.
Ezekiel Elliott has continued to look fresh after the NFL and fantasy community collectively left him for dead, averaging over 5.0 YPC against the Giants last week. He has had touch counts of 15 and 11 over the past two games, gaining 50+ yards in each, and I’d expect around the same this week with all the uncertainty at QB for the Patriots. Zeke remains a volume-based FLEX play, but has a low ceiling in a poor offense.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Demario Douglas (Start, WR3), DeVante Parker (Sit), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Sit), Tyquan Thornton (Sit), Jalen Raegor (Sit), Kayshon Boutte (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit, TE2)
Demario Douglas was not practicing on Wednesday, despite avoiding a concussion and near decapitation on a punt return this past week (this was not called for a penalty). We will need to monitor his health throughout the week, but if he is active, he will remain one of the few playmakers and lone bright spots on this offense. He’s had nine targets and six receptions in each of the past two games, and the Chargers come in bottom-three to opposing WRs. PFF projects him in a very good matchup with SCB Essang Bassey, their 99th-ranked CB (out of 120 qualified players). If he’s healthy enough to play, he’ll be a low-ceiling WR3 due to the offense, but it’s hard to ignore his 25% target share last week, despite only playing three quarters.
This hit on Demario Douglas was brutal pic.twitter.com/DprCK2vAxh
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) November 26, 2023
DeVante Parker (concussion) returned to action for the first time since Week 8, gaining 42 yards on three receptions (five targets) last week. The WR2 conversation between him and JuJu Smith-Schuster is still up for debate, but despite a good matchup, I have no interest in any other receivers in this offense. Somehow, even without taking the lack of QB into account, every Patriots receiver (outside of Douglas) projects horribly against this Chargers’ 30th-ranked secondary. Now that is saying something.
We made note last week of the Giants’ success against TEs this season, and that statistic could have only improved with Hunter Henry receiving zero targets. This week, his matchup gets significantly better, facing the 26th-ranked defense to opposing TEs, specifically against LB Eric Kendricks, who comes in 59th (out of 78) LBs in coverage rankings. Henry has an extremely low ceiling, but should get back to his typical 3-5 targets this week, and could be a reasonable streaming option due to his touchdown upside in a positive game script.
Meanwhile, Mike Gesicki continues his fall from grace, playing just 26% of snaps last week and receiving zero targets. His single-game high is 36 yards, and with just one touchdown on the year, he should not be in consideration this week.
Thank you for being here, and best of luck to your teams this week!
– Nick Beaudoin