Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 30th, 8:15 pm
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX
Betting Odds: DAL -9, 47.5, ESPN-BET
Network: Prime Video/Twitch.tv
Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Sit)
Smith has put up more than 16 fantasy points in only three of his 11 games played this season, two of which came before their bye in Week 5. Over his last five games, Smith is averaging just under 13 fantasy points per game, and that’s including his one good game in Week 10 when he managed to post 24 points against a Washington Commanders defense that had just traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. That was the only game since Week 5 in which he threw for over 300 yards; he threw for under 200 yards in two others.
While he gifted his managers a couple of points by rushing the ball last week, the last time Smith managed 20 or more yards on the ground was back in Week 6; it’s not something we can rely on. Since the bye week, Geno has an even 7/7 touchdown to interception ratio…and now he’s traveling to Dallas? I’m out. The Cowboys have not allowed an opposing offense to score more than 20 points against them at home this season. In their last three home games, Dallas has frustrated opposing quarterbacks Matthew Stafford, Tommy DeVito, and Sam Howell; say what you will about the latter, but he has been a Top 5 fantasy quarterback this season. Smith is a clear sit, even with extended garbage time as a strong possibility.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III (Sit), Zach Charbonnet (FLEX)
As of Wednesday night, Kenneth Walker III is officially listed as questionable. Based on recent reporting, he may very well be listed as doubtful by the time this article goes live on Thursday morning. I do not think Walker suits up; if he does play, he’s not worth the risk, given that he’s likely to split carries against a tough defense, with minimal incremental recovery time due to a Thursday night kickoff.
I have Zach Charbonnet as a mid-range FLEX option. The Cowboys are weaker against the run than they are against the pass, but the last two backs they’ve faced (Saquon Barkley and Brian Robinson, Jr.) ended up with carry totals in the teens and about 7 to 8 fantasy points. I see that trend continuing in this game. In his last two games, Charbonnet had about 14 carries for just over 3 YPC. The Dallas run defense is not as strong as the previous two Seattle opponents, so I could see him producing more than he has in his past two games. What is encouraging for those in PPR leagues is Charbonnet’s target volume. He is averaging 5 targets per game over the last three contests; if that trend continues for this game, that alone could elevate him to the border of Flex/RB2, especially if he logs significant work inside the red zone. You could do worse in a week with six teams on bye.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR3), Tyler Lockett (Start, Flex), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Start, WR3), Noah Fant (TE2)
The Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles are the only teams to have a pair of cornerbacks ranked in the top 10 of the NFL for passes defended this season; that includes the league leader in interceptions, DaRon Bland. Dallas is a Top 5 pass defense in many statistical categories such as completions and yards allowed, as well as interceptions. They are also in the top 5 in air yards per completion as well as yards after the catch allowed. Combine that with a pass rush that has been forcing quarterbacks to either get rid of it quickly or throw on the run, and I’m tempering my expectations for Seattle’s outside receivers.
DK Metcalf is a bit harder to predict as his last four games have seen a roller coaster of ups and downs. In four of his last five games, Metcalf logged 9 or more targets but seems to only bring in about half of them for receptions. Against the Ravens, he proved he only needs one catch to go 50 yards downfield and return 11 fantasy points in one play. That said, that happened to be his only play of that game, proving that projecting upside for Seattle receivers against upper-tiered defenses is a bit of a blindfolded dart throw. Metcalf managers are in the middle of some rough times: after coming off the 49ers game last week, the Seahawks stare down the Cowboys this week; a rubber match against the 49ers awaits next week. Dallas has not allowed a WR1 to go for more than 78 yards in their last five games. They’ve kept the likes of Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin to 50 yards or fewer at home while keeping A. J. Brown relatively in check (66 yards allowed) on the road. Tyler Lockett seems to have similar ups and downs in his fantasy production and will be subject to the same issues as Metcalf with Stephon Gilmore covering whoever DaRon Bland is not.
That leaves the receivers that will be covered by the nickel back. If Seattle is smart with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, they will look at what worked for Washington last Thursday and see that the slot receiver shredded the Cowboys for 100 yards on 9 receptions. The slot receiver was a weak point for Dallas last season and has caused a bit of damage this season, as well. “But what about Adam Thielen in Week 11? Isn’t he the team’s WR1?” I hear you asking. A fine question, my friend. I invite you to look up his routes that day and see that not only did he line up in the slot for half of his targets, but almost all of his receptions came inside 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. Factor in his 26 yards after the catch and you’ll see that the air yards were very shallow for his 8 receptions that game.
Is there anything better for a quarterback running for his life (and cursed with a need to get the ball out lightning fast after the snap) than finding an open big man on a shallow crossing route? Noah Fant will log a season-high fantasy point total this week and will even catch a touchdown (Source: Dude, trust me)! I mean, what could possibly go wrong? It’s not like the team will keep their TE1 inside to chip and block against one of the more ferocious pass rushes in the league so that said TE1 continues his streak of two or fewer receptions in every game since (checks notes) Week 3.
You can find better tight end options in your free agent pool. Just consult Brian Hartman’s Week 13 Streaming Tight End article right here on QBList.com. Friends don’t let friends stream Noah Fant, especially in a year in which 26 other teams are throwing to tight ends more regularly than the Seahawks.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
Do you know what Dak Prescott does at home? He throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns. In his last three home games, he’s done just that in each of them. He’s the number two quarterback in the league in both completion percentage and touchdowns thrown. The Cowboys lead the league in points scored, and with Dak’s 18 touchdowns over his last five games, he is on pace to overtake the entire New England Patriots team in points scored for the season. Dak is a no-brainer QB1.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, RB1), Rico Dowdle (Sit, Flex)
I remember like it was just three weeks ago when six different Cowboys scored a touchdown. I fell to my knees in a Walmart when I learned that Tony Pollard was not one of them. Times have changed since then: Walmart is now way too packed with holiday shoppers to fall down on one’s knees, and Pollard has rediscovered his mojo. After a drought that would make the Chihuahuan Desert blush, Pollard managers are looking for him to find the end zone for the third week in a row. Pollard is back to getting work in the passing game as well, with at least five targets in three of his last four games. Seattle sits about the middle of the pack in overall run defense and Bottom 10 in first downs allowed by a rushing play. They are also a Bottom 5 team when it comes to keeping opposing rushers out of the end zone, so I like the odds of Pollard extending his touchdown streak to three games. Few running backs offer a more tantalizing Week 13 matchup, so start Pollard everywhere.
Rico Dowdle now has a touchdown in two of his last three games, but that’s all you’re really banking on if you start him. He hasn’t seen more than 35 percent of the backfield’s snap share at all this season. The best-case scenario for those pinning their hopes on Dowdle as an emergency flex option: the Cowboys blow out the Seahawks early and opt to rest Pollard for the remainder of the game. Dowdle has a dangerously low floor, so he isn’t a good bet for the risk-averse so close to the fantasy playoffs. Then again, with six teams on bye, you may not have a better choice.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Brandin Cooks (Start, FLEX), Michael Gallup (Sit), Jalen Tolbert (Sit), Jake Ferguson (Start, TE2)
The 5th overall pick in this year’s draft class, Devon Witherspoon, has been leaving his mark already on the field; he ranks among the Top 5 in passes defended and even has an interception and a forced fumble on the season. He can certainly make life difficult for someone in a Dallas Cowboys jersey Overall, however, Seattle is just above the middle of the pack in pass defense on the season. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 28 points per game over his last five games and has just been a point shy of hitting the 18-point mark in each of his last two games. You don’t need me to tell you to start him.
So far this season, Brandin Cooks has either found the end zone en route to a big game or finished with basic flex numbers at best, with little in between. I am not expecting him to find the end zone in this one, and I expect he will face Witherspoon the most in this game. The odds are not in his favor; Cooks has posted his biggest games come when he can get behind coverage, and his only 100-yard game this season came against a Giants defense that was so banged up that I would not have been surprised if they held walk-on tryouts for their secondary the next day. Outside of that one matchup, Cooks hasn’t recorded more than four receptions in a single game.
Michael Gallup looks to be in for a solid matchup on paper, but the odds of that happening are just too high for me. His snap count has been reduced in every single game since Week 5. We’re now getting close to a sub-30 percent snap count. He’s found the end zone only once this season and has not had more than three receptions in a single game since Week 4. I would not be surprised if he achieves a high-end flex finish in this one, but it’s too risky for me. Keep an eye out for Jalen Tolbert. I’m not going to tell you to brake to a complete stop in the middle of the highway to grab him in your dynasty league, but the second-year receiver out of South Alabama has seen his stock rise in these last few games. He is jumping Gallup on the depth chart, as evidenced by a higher snap share in three straight games.
Seattle has not allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 8 and Jake Ferguson is on a bit of a drought since his three-game post-bye week hot streak. The tight end slot in many fantasy teams is far from fluid, so many fantasy managers are thirsty for production at the position; nevertheless, I’m tempering my expectations here. Ferguson offers the potential for a high-volume game out of nowhere, but he continues to cede some valuable red zone work to rookie Luke Schoonmaker, who was on the field for 41 percent of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in Week 12.