Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 6th, 4:25 pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: GB – 3.5 O/U 44 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields (Start, QB1)
Fun stat: in his nascent career against the Green Bay Packers, Justin Fields is 0-5, with an average of 187.6 passing yards and 0.8 passing touchdowns per game. As for rushing, that thing that makes him “fun,” he’s averaged 53.4 yards with 0.4 touchdowns over those same five games. As a quarterback against the Green Bay Packers, Fields is historically a good flex play at running back, passing stats aside. But, I digress; Fields has been on a tear as of late and has crushed three of the last four games statistically, placing as a third-best fantasy QB twice and the fourth-best once in the past month.
As a dyed-in-the-wool Packers fan, I prefer their chances at shutting down the Chicago Bears passing game with the rookies Carrington Valentine and Corey Ballentine WAY more than with the now-IR denizen Eric Stokes and weirdo-malcontent-of-the-week Jaire Alexander. However, Jaire will at least be back this week (we assume) to potentially contribute some press conference quips and point at a couple of caught balls he was three yards off on.
Green Bay looked tough last week, but they did so against Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens, who glued and soldered together, aren’t capable of cobbling together half of a Fields game as of late. This should be a fistfight of a game, and I like Fields for your fantasy championship. Do I prefer him over Jordan Love? That might be a coin toss because a lot of that answer depends on Green Bay’s effectiveness against Fields’ legs. I might give the edge to the more assured Love, if those are my choices, but that’s a personal preference. Against this defense, Fields should be good for another QB1 performance.
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert (Start, RB2), Rochon Johnson (Flex) D’Onta Foreman (Sit)
Much like Aaron Jones (see below), Khalil Herbert is on a tear right now. Despite a surprisingly improved Green Bay defense that showed up in Minnesota last week, I still don’t trust them. Herbert has posted his two best games of the season over the last two weeks: 20 carries for 112 against the Arizona Cardinals and 18 for 124 against the Atlanta Falcons, with a touchdown in each. He has a commanding lead in backfield touches and is finally playing like the Khalil Herbert everyone drafted late and thought they were going to look like geniuses for grabbing. Better late than never, Khalil!
While Green Bay did hold the Vikes to 67 yards on the ground last week, they gave up about a hundred in the previous two weeks and were stomped for 209 against the Giants. They’ve shown statistical improvement of late, but I don’t trust that everything is miraculously fixed and would look for a heavy dose of Herbert this week. While Roschon Johnson hasn’t been a world destroyer this season, he has scored between 8 and 15 points in three consecutive weeks, and while I don’t love the idea of starting him, he should be just fine as a flex. D’onta Foreman was inactive last week, so it should be safe to assume he’s already looking for offseason options.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Velus Jones/Equanimeous St. Brown/Tyler Scott (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, TE2), Robert Tonyan (Sit)
I’ll keep this one brief because you already know this if you’ve managed to advance to your league’s championship: D.J. Moore is the only wide receiver you should be playing from the Chicago Bears this week. It’s a decent matchup, and he’s the best thing the Bears have to offer in the passing game. Darnell Mooney should return after missing the Atlanta game with a concussion, but he hasn’t exceeded two catches since early November and hasn’t seen an endzone since Week 1. Speaking of November, that’s the last time “The Other” St. Brown (Equanimeous St. Brown) caught anything. Tyler Scott has posted exactly one game above two catches and twenty yards. Velus Jones, Jr. was a mistake.
Should Cole Kmet return to the lineup this week, he’ll be the only other set of trustworthy hands that the Bears have employed this season. If he misses again, and you’re in a real pinch, you could close your eyes and believe real hard that there’s some “revenge game” or hidden narrative at work for Robert Tonyan, whom the Packers opted to not pay last offseason. But if you’re going to believe in fairy tales, then we might as well consider a Marcedes Lewis story arc.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB1)
For those trapped helplessly in a Week 18 championship league, two things: 1) bless you, and 2) here’s a game where everybody will be playing hard. The Green Bay Packers have somehow regained the keys to their future and are in the always-delightful “win and you’re in” seat, while the Bears have been eliminated (okay, technically they have a 0.1% chance of still making it in), but hold perhaps the more enticing opportunity to ruin the Packers’ playoff chances on the last day of the season. While the Vikings have become Green Bay’s more glorified long-term hated rival over the last four years by way of Minnesota’s ability to field a regularly competitive team, let’s not forget that the Bears were their first…and they’re playing better as of late. Oh, and Jordan Love rolled them in Week 1 of this season, so there’s motivation.
The Bears have allowed just 203.75 passing yards per game over the last month, and even that’s skewed a little heavily by the 348 yards put up by the Cleveland Browns three weeks ago. They aren’t straight-up pushovers here, but they also roll in at the league’s fourth-worst in terms of touchdowns allowed at 29 over the year (1.5 per game over the last month). That said, Love is hot right now and looks the part of the lightning-strikes-thrice anomaly, one that the division was dreading, and the Green Bay faithful dared not believe possible. Love has thrown only one interception in the past seven games, compared to 16 touchdowns in that same time frame. I think this will be a legitimate scrap, a much more competitive game than the first-week rout, but as the fifth-ranked QB per Sleeper PPR league settings for Week 18, there’s zero chance you shouldn’t believe in Love this week.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), AJ Dillon/Patrick Taylor (Sit)
The Packers called 39 rushing plays last week against the Vikings, a season-high for an offense that eclipsed 30 attempts for the second consecutive week. Aaron Jones had over twenty of those (also in consecutive weeks) and managed to compile over 120 yards in each. Wild what a healthy Jones can do to improve a running game. The last time Jones faced down the Bears, he put up 127 combined yards and two touchdowns. I’m wary to read a whole lot into that, however; this isn’t the same Bears team, at least not defensively.
Jones is in the groove right now, averaging 6 yards per carry against the Vikings, and has historically had success against Chicago, be it rushing or receiving. So, I’m super comfortable running him in the RB2 spot. Between AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor, Green Bay tacked on another fifteen rushes from the backfield against Minnesota, but Dillon has been playing while banged-up as of late. He didn’t finish last week’s game, and neither he nor third-option Taylor has provided more than change-of-pace. For a fantasy championship, which is what you’re in this week, neither is worth consideration.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton (see below), Tucker Kraft (Start, TE1)
Just like last week, this receiving crew comes with a ton of considerations and options that will give a man a migraine. Let’s start with the big names: Christian Watson hasn’t played in about a month, but was running warm-ups pregame, albeit not suited up. Jayden Reed set a team record for receptions by a rookie while racking up 89 yards on 6 for 8 receiving, and added a pair of touchdowns before exiting the game early with a vague “chest injury” designation. If we assume Green Bay approaches this week with the level of urgency required for a team playing for its playoff hopes, I would assume all available hands will be on deck, if at all possible. I would therefore run an active Reed as a WR2 and Watson as a WR3 (if active), then shy away from the rest.
However, let’s assume one or both sit this week and work through the list: Dontayvion Wicks didn’t practice at all during the previous week due to double injuries to his chest and ankle. The news has been much better this week: he was a limited participant on Wednesday and returned to full participation on Thursday. I’d consider him as a flex option this week. Romeo Doubs has been fairly unproductive from a fantasy perspective over the past month, topping off at four catches per game, and only breaking past 32 yards receiving once, against the lowly Panthers (nearly half of those yards came off one play). He’s also only found the endzone once in that time, so he’s a sit for me. That brings us to Bo Melton, who earned himself a regular contract this week. Melton was seeing usage with Reed on the field, and raised his target share in one week from six to nine, leading the team in targets and yardage (105 last week). We have to leave it all on the table this week. If somehow Reed and Watson are both playing, I don’t think I’d touch him. If either receiver sits, I’d hold my breath and expect production commensurate with a WR3.
Tucker Kraft is an angry animal and approaches every play with the goal of destruction in mind. I love him very much. He has scored over ten points per week for a straight month now and will absolutely be geeked up out of his skull for this Bears game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to eat a Bears’ jersey on the sideline just to establish a mental edge, and I’m starting him without hesitation as a quality streaming option if he’s still available in the free agent pool.