Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 7th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting Odds: NO -3, 42.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Startable in Superflex, QB2)
After having his two best games of the season in Weeks 15 and 16 (20.3 and 26.0, respectively), Derek Carr returned to form in Week 17, finishing with 15.6 points. The Atlanta Falcons give up 18.38 points per game to quarterbacks, a middle-of-the-pack number. Though the matchup is average and not tough enough to scare me off of a player, there are too many quarterbacks I prefer over Carr to start him at this point in the season.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1 if Healthy), Jamaal Williams (Start, High-end RB2 if Kamara is OUT, Flex otherwise)
Alvin Kamara left the game in Week 17 game after only ten rushing attempts and two targets for 49 total yards due to an ankle injury. Kamara is a game changer for the New Orleans Saints when healthy, but missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday as a result of his injury. If Kamara misses this week, which is looking increasingly likely, Jamaal Williams will see a huge bump in usage. Williams carried the ball 19 times for 58 yards and caught all four of his targets for 13 yards in Kamara’s absence. While Williams represents a big gap in talent from Kamara, the volume opportunity will offer a huge bump. I like Williams as a high-end RB2 if Kamara misses time, and a FLEX if Kamara does play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR2*), Rashid Shaheed (Flex), Juwan Johnson (Start, TE1), Taysom Hill (Start, TE2)
Chris Olave struggled last week and this week goes against an Atlanta Falcons defense that’s allowing only 16.5 points per game to wide receivers, the league’s fifth-fewest total. Though the talent is there, the circumstances are not; I have Olave as a high-end WR2* this week, assuming he plays; he has been a limited participant in practice so far this week. Rashid Shaheed hasn’t had consecutive games in double-digits since Weeks 1-2. Shaheed is too inconsistent to start in the final week of fantasy.
Last week, Juwan Johnson had as many targets as every Saints wide receiver combined (12). He was able to capitalize on that volume, bringing in eight of those targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Johnson is poised to be a top tight end option this week against a Falcons defense that allows the tenth most points to tight ends (7.38 points per game). Taysom Hill caught both of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. Hill continues to be a wildcard with touchdown upside, though I probably don’t risk starting him in Week 18.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke (Sit)
As of Thursday evening, Taylor Heinicke is doing what he can to get ready to play in Week 18 despite an ankle injury that has forced him into being a limited participant in practice. Heinicke had his best game of the season last week, finishing with 18.1 points despite throwing three interceptions. The Saints are better than average against quarterbacks, only allowing 16 points per game to the position. Given the combination of injury, lackluster talent, and the matchup, I’m not starting Heinicke this week.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1), Tyler Allgeier (Start, Flex), Cordarrelle Patterson (Sit)
In an attempt to save his job, Arthur Smith has finally been feeding the ball to Bijan Robinson. Robinson has rushed for at least 72 yards in each of the last two weeks, with ten targets in Week 16 and four targets in Week 17. Tyler Allgeier only stole away five rushes and one target, but he took that target to the house for 75 yards and a touchdown. Cordarrelle Patterson didn’t register a carry or target last week. Bijan continues to be an RB1 going into the final week of the season, while Allgeier is a Flex with some upside depending on what kind of chaos Arthur Smith installs this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR3), Van Jefferson (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Sit, Unreliable TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
Drake London had ten targets last week but unfortunately was only able to bring in four of them for 56 yards. His fantasy managers like to see that volume, but that was only the third time this season that London reached double-digit targets. I value consistency above all else this late in the fantasy season and don’t consider London more than a WR3.
As a certified hater, it brings me great joy to say Kyle Pitts had his worst fantasy game of the season in most people’s championship week. Maybe now people will learn that Kyle Pitts cannot be trusted. His volume was there, Pitts had five targets. However, he was only able to bring in one target for five yards. The volume might be there but I do not like Pitts in my lineup this week. Jonnu Smith was somehow even worse than Pitts, failing to bring in any of his four targets.