Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 7th, 7:20 PM CST
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Betting Odds: BUF -3, 49 total via Odds Shark
Network: NBC
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Having Josh Allen on your fantasy team in a shootout is always a great thing. No matter what, you’re starting Allen on a week-to-week basis, especially when his game over/under is 49 points. Allen is the definition of a gunslinger, and he’ll get a ton of opportunities in Week 18. The Miami Dolphins have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (16.9 PPG) this past season, so they’re not well-positioned to prohibit Allen from putting up big numbers. If you’re in the championship, there’s no reason to get cute and bench Allen under any circumstances. I expect him to finish as the overall QB1 for Week 18.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
James Cook has had some very big ups and downs over the last few weeks. In Week 14, he scored 25.1 points against the Kansas City Chiefs and things started looking up. Cook was even better in his next game, scoring a whopping 36.1 points. Unfortunately, in Weeks 16 and 17, Cook cooled off considerably, combining for only 10.4 points in those two contests. Even though I love targeting running backs in high-scoring contests, it would be irresponsible to project Cook as more than an RB2, especially since the Dolphins have allowed the 10th-fewest total of fantasy points to running backs (19.61 PPG) in 2023. As we’ve seen this past year, Cook’s upside is through the roof, so benching him isn’t an option. It might feel like a leap of faith to bank on a bounce-back with Cook, but if it’s going to happen, it’ll be in this high-scoring affair.
Latavius Murray is an obvious sit this week, just like every other. Murray is averaging 5.2 points on the year but hasn’t scored a single point since Qeek 15. Please don’t play Murray; despite being listed as the backup, he’s touched the ball just once in the last two weeks.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR2), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Khalil Shakir (Sit, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE2)
During the past four weeks, Stefon Diggs has been abysmal. Diggs hasn’t scored over 10 points since Week 12, making him one of the year’s biggest fantasy disappointments, given the timing of this slump. That said, Allen has to throw the ball to someone in this high-scoring game, and Diggs is likely to draw a large chunk of those targets. I can’t project Diggs as a WR1 anymore, but he should settle in as a WR2 with upside in Week 18. The Dolphins have allowed the 14th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (34.24), but if you need any more convincing, Diggs has a matchup advantage score of 76.1, which rates as “Good,” according to Pro Football Focus.
Anyone who says they know exactly what to expect from Gabe Davis is a liar. Davis is coming off a 4.1-point performance, but he scored 23 points the week before that. Davis and his incredible upside make him a WR3 weekly, but I like him much more in potential shootouts. It’s also worth noting that Davis has a WR/CB matchup score of 56.8, which is considered “Average.” There’s no way to feel great about putting Davis in a lineup with a championship on the line, but he has a chance to explode with this Week 18 game script.
Khalil Shakir is an easy sit for me if everyone is healthy. Shakir is averaging 6.0 PPG on the year and is coming off 8.9 and 7.5-point performances. Despite playing a bit more recently, there’s no way I can ever justify putting Shakir in my lineup when he’s drawn more than five targets only once this season.
Dalton Kincaid looked like he could be a league winner, but things have changed after the return of Dawson Knox. Kincaid is listed as the starter, but they’ve both been seeing the field; neither has been very fantasy-relevant since. I’m still projecting Kincaid as a TE2 because of his upside, combined with the fact that the Dolphins have allowed the 10th-most FPPG to tight ends (12.5). Although Kincaid is coming off a 12.7-point week, it’s tough to project him as a TE1 given the situation and his recent history of production.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB2)
The Dolphins offense as a whole is very banged up heading into Week 18, which clearly hurts Tua Tagovailoa‘s fantasy prospects. However, Tagovailoa will be in a shootout and will likely play from behind. Through a fantasy lens, Tua has shown he can be productive, averaging 16.4 PPG in 2023. The Buffalo Bills have allowed the 6th-fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (14.27), but everything comes down to how healthy the Dolphins offense is. If several key players for the Dolphins sit, Tagovailoa should be a QB2; if everyone plays, I have him as a low-end QB1 for the week.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2 – Questionable), De’Von Achane (Start, RB2 – Questionable), Jeff Wilson, Jr. (Sit; RB2 or FLEX if Mostert and/or Achane is ruled OUT)
Raheem Mostert is questionable for Week 18, and his playing status is widely expected to be known sometime today (Friday). I’d be mildly surprised if the Dolphins decide to run Mostert out in Week 18. He missed Week 17 and hasn’t practiced this week, yet there’s still a chance he’ll play. At the end of the day, if Mostert is on the field, he’s still worthy of a start. He failed to total more than 50 total yards in either of his last two games, but he offers RB1 upside based on his touchdown production, which as been as consistent as any player in the NFL this season. It’s also worth mentioning that the Bills have allowed the 15th most FPPG to running backs (21.22) this season.
Unfortunately, De’Von Achane has been banged up down the stretch this year, a trend that unfortunately continues. Achane is questionable for Week 18, but he’s a must-start as a RB2 if he plays. After all, we saw what Achane did last week, scoring 23.7 points on 14 carries. Monitor Achane’s health. If he plays, his upside would be wasted on benches during a fantasy championship game. If both Achane and Mostert sit, Jeff Wilson, Jr. warrants consideration as an RB2; he should offer FLEX value if either player sits. Wilson should be left on benches if Achance and Mostert both play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1 – Questionable), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR3 – Questionable ), Cedric Wilson, Jr. (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
Tyreek Hill is a player I believe will sit, but he’s still officially questionable with an ankle injury. However, a fire at his house, caused by one of his children, was the primary cause of his absence from practice on Thursday. Since the Dolphins game has playoff implications, there’s a chance Hill will play; however, he was spotted in a boot by cameras during the house fire (thankfully, everyone is okay). It has been a rough week for Hill, to say the least. If he ends up playing, it would be malpractice to not project him as a WR1; the Bills have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers (29.42 per game), and Hill is an absolute freak of nature on the football field.
Jaylen Waddle is also questionable for Week 18, and many don’t expect him to play. Head coach Mike McDaniel has said that he’s not ruling out Waddle yet, so there’s a decent chance he’ll suit up. Waddle has put up WR2/WR3 numbers all year, so starting him in a shootout is the move if he’s cleared to play. Temper expectations a bit, however; Waddle won’t be 100 percent and has a matchup advantage score of 61, which rates as “Average,” per PFF.
If Hill and Waddle are both forced to the sidelines, one of Cedric Wilson, Jr., Braxton Berrios, and Durham Smythe will emerge as a low-end start. None have been fantasy-relevant all year, but Tagovailoa has to feed someone in a pass-heavy matchup. Of the three, I would rather play Smythe because he’s scored 10.6 and 8.4 points over the last two weeks and has a more secure role. However, the Bills have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (10.59 PPG), which scares me. Wilson, who played over 85 percent of the Dolphins’ snaps last week, scored a touchdown but was only targeted once. That touchdown may stick in our short-term memories, but he has drawn only five targets during his 495 snaps this season.