Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 7th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: NE -1.5, O/U 30.5 via OddsShark
Network: CBS
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Before we begin, I feel it’s important to address that you should not be playing season-long fantasy football in Week 18. There are far too many variables to consider, including playoff implications (or lack thereof), team motivation, individual player bonuses, and more. We at QBList sincerely appreciate your support and input throughout the year, but now is the time to advocate that your league should be finishing in Week 17. You will not regret making the change.
With that said, let’s dig in.
New York Jets
As far as we know, Head Coach Robert Saleh will not be resting his starters, despite this game being meaningless for his team. This is exactly how Week 18 was handled by the same coaching staff last year, and despite the risk of injury, we have no reason to believe that any of these players will rest. The Jets have not beaten the Patriots since 2015 (15 straight games), which I believe will be their main motivation coming into this week.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian (Sit)
Trevor Siemian has officially been named the starting QB for the season finale of the Jets disappointing season. Siemian has volumed his way to low-end QB2 performances over the past two weeks, but with a league-low team-implied total of just 14.5, he can be safely avoided in a meaningless game on the road against New England. Moving on.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, High-RB2)
Breece Hall has been a league winner in the fantasy playoffs, coming in as the RB1 over the past two weeks. He has been dominant on the ground, but is, more importantly, seeing an elite target share, and posting numbers you’d be happy to see from your WR1. Over the past two weeks, Hall has seen 25 targets, converting those into 21 receptions for 138 yards with one touchdown. He is also just 105 yards shy of 1,500 scrimmage yards on the season, which would make him the fourth RB in team history to do so.
New England’s record does not represent how great their defense has been this year, especially against the run. They come in allowing just 87.4 yards/game on the ground, ranking second in the league, and 3.2 YPC, which ranks first overall. Hall’s floor remains high due to his target share, but his upside may be limited in what is projected to be a tough, low-scoring matchup. Regardless, Hall should be in your lineup as a fringe RB1/RB2 this week.
Breece Hall calls his shot for 2024 🔥 pic.twitter.com/p3RwuHNGZz
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) January 4, 2024
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR2), Jason Brownlee (Sit, FLEX), Xavier Gipson (Sit, FLEX), Allen Lazard (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2)
Garrett Wilson continues to outperform expectations, coming in as WR23 on the season, and officially becoming the ninth WR in NFL history to record 80+ receptions in each of his first two years. Wilson is seeing 10.2 targets/game with a 30.5% target share and matches up well with the Patriots secondary, who come in 18th in PPG to WRs. Belichick has a history of taking away your best player, but I would happily bet on Wilson’s talent to overcome in this situation. Fire up Wilson as a WR2 this week, and keep your fingers crossed he plays the whole game.
Garrett Wilson Appreciation Tweet pic.twitter.com/SnN2RPJqLN
— 𝙅𝙀𝙏𝙎 𝙈𝙀𝘿𝙄𝘼🛫 (@NYJets_Media) December 27, 2023
UDFA and training camp standouts Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson are both names to monitor in deeper Dynasty leagues, but should not be in consideration for your fantasy Championship. Brownlee has led in snap share over the past two weeks (89% to 66%), posting PPR games of eight and five in doing so, while Gipson has managed FLEX status (5-10 PPR points) in four of the last five games. However Gipson is seeing more opportunities, including rushing attempts, and looks more electric with the ball in his hands. If I needed to choose between the two, I would lean towards him since he has more big-play ability, but I’d personally be looking for (much) higher upside plays if this is my fantasy championship.
Meanwhile, Allen Lazard has become an afterthought, which is saying something in an already unimpressive offense. Perhaps he can have a resurgence with Aaron Rodgers next year, but it’s certainly not coming in 2023.
Tyler Conklin will look to continue his quietly impressive, touchdown-free campaign this week, but will unfortunately be taking on a Patriots defense ranking second in PPG to TEs. Conklin is TE18 on the season, which feels like an appropriate ranking for him this week as well. Conk, Conk, baby.
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick also does not have a history of resting players, and although this game is “meaningless” for his team (some, like me, would argue that tanking for the pick is more valuable), Belichick is on a quest to become the winningest Head Coach in NFL history. Every game matters to him, and he will be treating it as such. “No Days Off!”
No days off – Bill Belichick pic.twitter.com/mep86Cpfx4
— render Ⓚ (@0x_render) April 24, 2021
Quarterbacks
Bailey Zappe (Sit)
Fresh off a three-interception performance against Buffalo, Bailey Zappe is in line for another difficult day against the Jets, who rank third on the season in PPG to opposing QBs. It was nice to see a rushing floor last week (37 yards and one touchdown), but it is clear that Zappe is not the long-term answer at QB for the Patriots and not a start-able option this week against New York. Zappe has been the QB20 in PPG since taking over in Week 13 and will be playing for a future roster spot on the team, but with a team-implied total of just 16.5, he will likely need to rely on another day of scrambling to get back into the QB2 range.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (Start, Low-RB2)
In the absence of Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott continues to dominate this backfield and represent the Patriots in style. He has been quietly successful over the past three weeks, finishing as the RB13 in that span, while playing 84% of snaps and averaging 17.3 touches/game. Although his 2.8 YPC is not impressive, he has made up for it in the receiving game, seeing a minimum of five targets (and four receptions) in four of the past five games. New England’s OL has been nothing special this season, but the Jets have been a matchup to target against RBs, coming in 26th in PPG to the position. With no reason to sit him, Zeke should see another 15+ touches in a good matchup this week, making him a rock-solid RB2.
Ezekiel Elliott has been an EXCELLENT Patriot.
Need him back next seasonpic.twitter.com/HoloIpfiuW
— Savage (@SavageSports_) December 28, 2023
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Demario Douglas (Start, FLEX), Davante Parker (Sit, FLEX), Jalon Raegor (Sit), Tyquan Thornton (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit, TE2)
Demario Douglas remains a lone bright spot on this tough-to-watch Patriots offense but is simply a volume play against arguably the league’s best secondary. Douglas is projected to take most of his snaps against SCB Michael Carter II, who PFF ranks 14th in coverage this season, of 126 qualified players, and if they decide to line up him outside, well then he’ll get Sauce Gardner. “Pop” looks to have a bright future, but with zero touchdowns to his name, he has become the team’s new Jakobi Meyers, and cannot be trusted as more than a volume-based FLEX play this week.
DeMario Douglas became a human joystick on this play — the #Patriots rookie is insanely elusive.https://t.co/rsdhBMje16
— Carlos (@LosTalksPats) December 31, 2023
Davante Parker has quietly finished in (at least) FLEX territory in four of his past five games, but cannot be trusted this week, with PFF ranking his matchups “Poor” across the board. Stay away.
Hunter Henry missed last week due to a knee injury but was limited in practice to start the week. On paper, this is a good matchup, with the Jets ranked bottom-5 in PPG to TEs but coming off an injury with one of the lowest team-implied totals, his floor is just too low for me. If he plays, he is a good streaming option as the favorite red zone target but will be an entirely touchdown-dependent option. If he is unable to go, that boosts Mike Gesicki into TE2 range, but I wouldn’t be excited about it.
Thank you so much for being here this season.
Best of luck to you in your Championship Week!