Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 6th 1:00 pm EST
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: DET – 3.5 O/U 45.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Nick Mullens (Sit)
Look, Jaren Hall looked terrible last week, but I can’t say Nick Mullens lit up the room, either. Hall had 5 completions on 10 attempts, threw a pick, and fumbled one away. Mullins just about doubled Hall’s output of 65 yards by notching 133 yards while completing 13 of 22 passes and tossing a touchdown pass. Even though the Detroit Lions secondary has fallen on hard times in recent weeks, it’s hard to cobble together a convincing argument to start Mullens, especially in a fantasy championship matchup. The Vikings just want to get to the offseason already. If he’s somehow your only option, just concede. Just kidding…well, kinda.
Running Backs
Ty Chandler (Start, Flex), Alexander Mattison (Sit)
There are only two Vikings worth a spot in a Week 18 championship fantasy roster. Ty Chandler is the first as a low-end RB2 recommendation. Still, Chandler has produced decent fantasy numbers the past two weeks following his monster 24.7-point outing in Week 15. I think Chandler is, or at least should be, the Vikings’ immediate future at the position. He has been a more impactful runner than Alexander Mattison this year.
A good portion of Chandler’s decrease in production over the past half month is directly the result of Minnesota simply not running as much. This past week, Chandler saw 10 carries; the week before, he only handled eight. His monster week came on the strength of 23 carries in a game in which he benefitted from a more balanced plan of attack. With little to gain other than a modicum of false pride, I would look for Kevin O’Connell to give a few more looks to Chandler to see what he could be rebuilding with next year. One thing seems certain, and that’s Mattison won’t be it. Over the past two weeks, Mattison has seen three carries and two receptions for a total of 30 yards. In the previous week, he had 2 carries for -1 yards and didn’t see a single target. I will be surprised if Mattison is wearing purple and gold next year and SHOCKED if anybody wins a Week 18 championship with him in the lineup.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Jordan Addison (Sit), K.J. Osborn (Sit), Brandon Powell (Sit), Johnny Mundt/Josh Oliver (Sit)
I cannot sit Justin Jefferson, regardless of matchup, when he’s healthy. Yet in a completely meaningless road game for Minnesota with nothing to gain and a series of befuddling questions as options at quarterback, the temptation is there to knock him down a notch or two. Then I consider that two weeks ago, JJ put up 141 yards and a touchdown on 6-for-10 receiving against this same Detroit Lions defense, and I can’t deny his capacity for an end-of-the-year clinic, especially after the thrashing CeeDee Lamb threw on these guys.
Jefferson is the only receiver I can recommend in this matchup, though. Jordan Addison has a lot of better days ahead of him, but has only exceeded 44 yards once in the past six weeks, and against the Lions in that last game, caught all of one ball on four targets for two yards. K.J. Osborn wasn’t present at all against Green Bay last week – no receptions, no targets – and while he had a great showing in that last Lions game (5-of-7 for 95 and a score), I don’t trust a repeat performance. Brandon Powell was targeted twice a week ago and caught neither. His high water mark for the season was a 64-yard performance in Week 6 and he has a whopping total of one touchdown on the year. Pass on all of them. I can’t sign on to either tight end here either, mostly due to a lack of data. Johnny Mundt, who I legit never heard of until last week, had a career day of 39 yards and a touchdown once Mullens came on in relief, but I wouldn’t even glance at him or Josh Oliver in a Week 18 championship game.
Detroit Lions
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (Start, QB2)
A logical man would look at a game like this and surmise that possibly, just maybe, the Detroit Lions would use this week to rest a few guys on the way to their first playoff trip since The Bible was written. Those of us who watched the Dallas/Detroit game last week know the secret, however: Dan Campbell is not a logical man, and that’s what makes him awesome. I fully expect Detroit’s head coach to come at the Vikings with the fury of a thousand suns this week, and the recommendations below may reflect some of that belief. I’m also hoping to see a quadruple-reverse on 4th and 13 from Detroit’s own seven-yard line because that would be fun. Please note: if there is some indication or direct report that indicates the Lions are going to do something relatively sensible and rest some guys, adjust accordingly.
Regardless, Jared Goff hasn’t put up 20-plus fantasy points more than once (per Sleeper, full PPR) since back in Week 10. Could that change against a Minnesota secondary that played an innovative ‘no coverage’ scheme against the Packers last week? It sure could, but I don’t love the idea of a repeat performance in inefficiency by the defense as a reason why I would turn to a quarterback who has only finished in the Top 10 at their position once in that same timespan (and five times all season). If he’s what got you there, by all means, stay the course, but don’t expect much more than what you’ve been getting, which has been three finishes outside the Top 20 in the past month.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, RB2)
If both these guys get a regular workload this week, I would expect to see David Montgomery continue his remarkably consistent run since returning to the lineup on November 11th. He has averaged 73.8 yards per game (with a low of 55 yards, and a high of 116) during that time, and scored a touchdown in five of those seven games. During that same period, Jahmyr Gibbs has contributed an average of 79.3 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns of his own. It’s an incredible backbone to the Lions’ success, and should neither get a rest day on Sunday, put them in and don’t think twice.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Kalif Raymond/Josh Reynolds (Sit), Jameson Williams (Sit*), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE2)
I’ll mention it once more because clarity is important: these prognostications are based on my firmly-held belief that Dan Campbell is going to go Fully-Unchained-Human-Monster-Drink on the Vikings Sunday out of a combination of frustration from last week’s hose-job, his season-long strict adherence to a playbook consisting of only one page that says ‘GO FOR IT’ scrawled in blood, and his general wiring akin to a man who has been electrocuted several dozen times and just plays through it. So if we accept that as the premise, we have no option but to hit the same beats we’ve been hitting for most of the Lions’ season: Play Amon-Ra St. Brown at all costs, and throw Sam LaPorta in there, too. I ran both in my lineup last week in my championship game, and while things looked grim for both almost the entire day, Campbell’s no-score-left-behind approach pulled St. Brown to 101 combined yards, the most thrilling chunk of which came on the final drive that loaded LaPorta up with 60 of his total 84 yards on the way there.
Here is a disclaimer: LaPorta has popped up on the injury report with an ankle issue that hampered his practice participation on Wednesday. Even if Detroit does what I think they will and goes helter-skelter all day, I could see LaPorta getting a limited pitch count to better his playoff health. Combine that with his paltry output in the previous Week 16 Vikings matchup (3-for-3 for 18 yards), I would temper expectations if he’s not a full participant in Friday’s practice. If he happens to sit, pass on any backup tight end pressed into duty.
None of the other receivers listed above (Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds) has made more than two catches in the past three games, save for Jameson Williams, who is starting to find a place in this offense. He’s currently very questionable with an ankle injury, so I’m putting a bookmark on him for next year. If he does get the green light for Week 18, I’m not entrusting him to have a big day unless LaPorta sits. Then, maybe Williams will see additional work (unless they just use more Gibbs) and could bring you a sneaky win as a flex play. That’s a mighty big risk to take with a championship on the line, though.