Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 7th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: FedEx Field, Washington, DC
Betting Odds: DAL -13, O/U 46 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Before we begin, I feel it’s important to address that you should not be playing season-long fantasy football in Week 18. There are far too many variables to consider, including playoff implications (or lack thereof), team motivation, individual player bonuses, and more. We at QBList sincerely appreciate your support and input throughout the year, but now is the time to advocate that your league should be finishing in Week 17. You will not regret making the change.
With that said, let’s dig in.
Dallas Cowboys
With a win in Week 18, the Cowboys will be playing for the NFC East title and the No.2 seed. There is no reason to believe they will be resting their starters unless the game gets out of hand. Unfortunately, that’s just a risk you’ll have to take.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
No need to overthink this. Dak Prescott has been amazing this year, coming in as QB4 on the season, and taking on a Commanders defense ranked 31st in PPG to the QB position. The Cowboys have a league-high 29.5 team-implied total, and with 10+ (and counting) starting QBs already being granted a “rest” week, Dak has a clear path to finish as the QB1 overall in Week 18.
Bombs away pic.twitter.com/EieVfNXkhB
— Arrogant Dak Prescott (Parody) (@ArrogantDak) December 31, 2023
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, RB2), Rico Dowdle (Sit, FLEX), Malik Davis (Sit)
Maybe the expectations for Tony Pollard were too high this season. I blame the Cowboys coaching staff for how they have used him, and if you’ve been following this article all season, you’re well aware of that. Either way, Pollard is still the RB14 on the season, which will probably be surprising to most and is far better than how he has been treated in the fantasy community.
Pollard is still the leader in this backfield, playing 76% of snaps and handling 14.3 touches/game over the past three weeks. While he has not been overly efficient with those touches, the Cowboys’ passing game has been outstanding, and they have not needed him as much as in recent years. The Commanders come in 26th in PPG to RBs, and PFF ranks the Dallas OL as the second-highest mismatch in terms of rushing. The Cowboys also have the league’s highest team-implied total and are favored by -13, which is typically a game script that favors RBs. Pollard should be in your lineup for all these reasons, but he is also the Cowboy I worry about the most, as almost all of Rico Dowdle‘s “big” games have come in “garbage time,” when the game has already become a blowout. Because of this, the health of the Cowboys’ backup RBs will be important to monitor.
Dowdle was inactive last week due to an ankle injury and has been limited in practice so far this week. With Deuce Vaughn (ankle) being placed on IR, it would be Malik Davis called up from the practice squad if Dowdle can’t go. If Dowdle is available, however, there is a world where he has another 8-10 touch game if the Cowboys can get a big lead; but there is also a world where he plays just a few snaps. If Malik Davis gets the call, he will likely mirror the eight snaps that Deuce Vaughn played last week. All in all, it will be difficult to trust anyone besides Pollard in this backfield.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Brandin Cooks (Start, FLEX), Michael Gallup (Sit), Jalen Tolbert (Sit), Jake Ferguson (Start, Low-TE1)
CeeDee Lamb has overtaken Tyreek Hill as the WR1 on the year, taking on a Commanders secondary ranked 31st in PPG to WRs. Start him.
2023 Fantasy WR Leaders (0.5 PPR) 🎉
🥇CeeDee Lamb – 306.7 FPTS
🥈Tyreek Hill – 299.2 FPTS
🥉Amon-Ra St. Brown – 247.5 FPTS
4️⃣ Mike Evans – 239.3 FPTS
5️⃣ AJ Brown – 237.2 FPTS pic.twitter.com/BxgF088eU4— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 4, 2024
Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks has become everything this team hoped they had in Michael Gallup, serving as the perfect complementary WR2 for Dak. Although his games have been a bit boom-or-bust, he is playing 77% of snaps over the past three weeks, and averaging 5.3 targets/game in that span. Cooks has one of the lowest floors and highest ceilings of all WRs, but has all the upside in the world this week, with great matchups across the board on the league’s highest-scoring team. I have Cooks ranked as a safe FLEX, simply because he has only topped 50 yards in three of his last 10 games, and the game script does not project for a shootout. With that said, he has shown a nose for the end zone, and is the perfect high-upside dart throw in your fantasy Championships and DFS leagues this week.
Jake Ferguson is the TE9 on the year, seeing 6 targets per game and the most red zone targets (24) of anyone at the position. Believe it or not, TE is the only position that the Commanders play well against, coming in 10th in PPG, and holding Ferguson to one reception for 35 yards in their last meeting. In a week where starters will be scarce, I have no fear firing up Ferguson as a low-end TE1.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders will be a wild card going into Week 18. With a loss, they secure the No. 2 overall pick (and their QB of the future), and with a win, they get… pride and a worse pick. It is unclear exactly how they will treat this, but with Head Coach Ron Rivera potentially coaching for his job, we can expect him to treat this as a “must-win” game.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (Start, QB2)
Rivera has officially named Sam Howell the starter in Week 18, but he will be in for a tough night against a Cowboys defense ranked eighth in PPG to QBs. Despite the difficult matchup, Howell has plenty of upside in a favorable game script as +13 underdogs. He is second in the league in pass attempts, and although he may not be the answer for the Commanders long-term, he has shown that he’s not afraid to run, and still comes in as QB11 on the season, even with Jacoby Brissett taking a few starts over him. If he plays the whole game (and survives the Dallas DL), we should easily expect another 40+ pass attempts, making him a solid QB2 play.
Sam Howell "fell to the fifth round because of certain deficiencies," @CraigHoffman says. "And what he's done is display those deficiencies and never really improved on them."
The Commanders' QB has proved he's capable but hasn't shown consistency https://t.co/u2CftYIXKb
— The Team 980 (@team980) January 4, 2024
Running Backs
Brian Robinson (Start, Low-RB2), Antonio Gibson (Sit, FLEX), Chris Rodriguez (Sit)
Brian Robinson (hamstring) returned from a two-game absence, immediately taking his backfield over with 13 touches for 76 yards against the 49ers. Robinson has had a surprisingly impressive year, showcasing a three-down skill set that most NFL and fantasy analysts didn’t know he had. The Cowboys are right in the middle of the pack (15th) in PPG to the RB position, but given the expected game script, Robinson can only be treated as a touchdown-dependent RB2. Their last meeting resulted in 17 touches for 64 all-purpose yards, which feels like a reasonable stat line to close out a solid season for Robinson.
Antonio Gibson may see slightly more playing time if this game gets out of hand early, but even in a similarly game-scripted loss to the 49ers last week, he saw just six total touches for 36 yards. Gibson may benefit from a change of scenery next year, where fifth-round rookie Chris Rodriguez appears poised for the backup role in DC and will be a solid Dynasty stash going into the offseason.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin (Start, Low-WR2), Curtis Samuel (Start, WR3), Jahan Dotson (Sit, FLEX), Logan Thomas (Start, TE2)
Terry McLaurin has come back to life the past three weeks, averaging 84 yards/game and scoring twice in the process. While McLaurin doesn’t match up especially well against the Cowboys’ secondary, especially PFF’s No. 2 ranked CB DaRon Bland, he should easily see 6-8+ targets as Washington’s most talented receiver in a highly positive game script. McLaurin is still Uber-talented, and I hope he can get out of Washington sooner rather than later, but for this week, he can be treated as a fringe WR2/WR3.
https://twitter.com/SamHowellMVP/status/1741533418750451827
Curtis Samuel is another boom-or-bust style player who is clearly loved by this Washington coaching staff. If Samuel (hamstring) can go, he will be taking the majority of his snaps against SCB Jourdain Lewis, who has arguably been the Cowboys’ weakest link in their secondary. PFF ranks Lewis 121st of 126 qualified players in coverage, which makes Samuel and his “Swiss army knife” usage a sneaky play this week. Samuel was a DNP on Thursday after being a full participant on Wednesday — this could simply be for maintenance, but we’ll have to follow his status as the week goes on. If available, I like Samuel as a WR3, and will likely be using him as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments.
Jahan Dotson‘s playing time has increased as of late, but that unfortunately has not turned into production. He has only averaged 14.3 yards/game over the past three weeks and will be a touchdown-or-bust option in Week 18. It has been an unfortunate and disappointing season after a promising rookie year, and perhaps a “buy low” target heading into the offseason, with a likely change at QB coming in Washington. I’m out on him this week, but if Samuel is inactive, I would bump him into FLEX status purely based on an uptick in volume.
Logan Thomas has plodded his way to TE15 this season; a respectable number for the 32-year-old. Thomas will be a reasonable TE2 this week but will need a touchdown to get any higher, as he has only reached 40 receiving yards twice in the past eight games. He is a low-floor, low-ceiling option, and can likely be avoided in standard leagues.
Thank you so much for being here this season.
Best of luck to you in your Championship Week!