Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, January 6th, 2024, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Betting Odds: Texans -1.5, O/U 47.5 via OddsShark
Network: ESPN
Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (Start, QB1)
In a week filled with crazy seeding and playoff scenarios, the mission for C.J. Stroud and the Texans is simple: Win and In. The Texans still have an outside shot at the AFC South title if the Jaguars also lose, but they can at least clinch a playoff berth with a win against a Colts defense allowing the 10th-fewest points to opposing QBs. Stroud played well enough in his return from a concussion in Week 17, throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown in a rout of the Titans, and will likely be asked to do more in a do-or-die game for Houston. Stroud ranks as a QB1 this week, especially with several options headed to the bench to rest up for the playoffs.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), Dameon Pierce (Sit)
Devin Singletary has seized control of the Texans backfield in the second half of the season, operating as the primary early-down and pass-catching option over Dameon Pierce. Singletary now faces a Colts defensive line that allows the fifth-most points to RBs, setting him up nicely to post RB2 numbers and deliver a strong performance in the final week of the regular season. Still, things may be tougher for the Texans’ O-line if Laremy Tunsil is forced to sit out this game. Nevertheless, Singletary’s control of the backfield makes him a solid start in Week 18. Dameon Pierce, meanwhile, has struggled in his sophomore season in the league and has faded down the stretch, making him a firm sit for those looking to bring home a title.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, WR2), Noah Brown (Sit, FLEX), Robert Woods (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)
Operating as C.J. Stroud‘s primary target has done wonders for Nico Collins‘ fantasy value, as the third-year receiver has enjoyed his best NFL season as long as he’s been healthy. Primarily lining up on the outside, Collins will face coverage from Colts CBs Jaylon Jones and JuJu Brents, both of which grade as favorable matchups for Collins. He profiles as a strong WR2 in this must-win game for the Texans.
Noah Brown is nursing injuries in the early practices this week but would still be an inadvisable FLEX option if he plays, as most of his production has come in weeks where Nico Collins has sat. He would likely need to score to return fantasy value for managers starting him. If he sits, Robert Woods would likely see a bump in usage, but he hasn’t finished higher than WR33 in any given week this season and would remain a ‘Sit’ recommendation.
While it has been an up-and-down year for Dalton Schultz, he should rank as a TE1 in Week 18, especially with other options such as Travis Kelce likely to sit. Schultz could also see a bump in target share if Noah Brown is unable to go on Saturday. PFF gives Schultz a relatively favorable matchup against Colts LB E.J. Speed in the final week of the regular season.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew (Sit, QB2)
As a whole, Gardner Minshew II has filled in admirably following the season-ending injury to Anthony Richardson, keeping the Colts in the playoff hunt up until this must-win Week 18 game. Facing the same stakes as the Texans, Minshew and company will be going all-out to secure a playoff berth, but it’s more likely they will rely on the run game to get them there. When Jonathan Taylor is healthy, Minshew tends to throw the ball less, meaning it’s less likely to get a productive fantasy outing from the Colts’ signal caller. Minshew could still come through in a pinch, especially in Superflex leagues, but he still ranks as a mid-range QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Zack Moss (Sit)
In a tumultuous season of contract disputes and various injuries, Jonathan Taylor has the chance to end the year on a high note in this must-win game. The Texans are fairly stout against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest points to opposing RBs, but PFF still grades this matchup as largely favorable for the Colts’ O-line. Taylor has averaged nearly 20 carries over the past two weeks since returning from injury and will be asked to do the same with the Colts’ season on the line. Taylor ranks as a no-doubt RB1 this week. Zack Moss, meanwhile, missed the last two weeks with an injury but appears on track to return to action this week. He will spell Taylor occasionally but shouldn’t be trusted to return meaningful fantasy production in his first game back to action during the fantasy championships.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. (Start, WR1), Josh Downs (Sit, FLEX), Alec Pierce (Sit), Kylen Granson (Sit)
With Gardner Minshew II under center, Michael Pittman Jr. has been amongst the most trustworthy PPR options in the league, functioning as a true target hog in the Indianapolis offense. Pittman returned to action in Week 17 following a brief injury and recorded an 89 percent snap share, and those numbers should push even higher in Week 18’s must-win. The Texans are middling against receivers from a fantasy perspective but boast a pair of impressive corners on the outside in Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson, meaning Pittman will have his work cut out for him this week. Nevertheless, Pittman has a great chance to post WR1 numbers operating as the team’s alpha receiver and Minshew’s go-to target to complement the run game.
Josh Downs has been one of the more under-the-radar rookie receivers of the 2023 class, having amassed an impressive 723 receiving yards thus far in his rookie campaign. Still, he hasn’t eclipsed 10 PPR fantasy points since Week 8 and last found the end zone in Week 7, making him a tough start this week. In deeper leagues, Downs could return FLEX value while other options rest up for the NFL playoffs, but Alec Pierce should be left on benches due to his low usage in the passing game despite playing nearly every snap. Kylen Granson and the other Colts TEs can also be left on benches, as none of them have been reliable options throughout the fantasy season.