Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 13th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: JAC +9.5, 50.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Start-able QB2)
The second-year quarterback has shown improvement since his rookie season, but Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy output remains inconsistent and difficult to predict.
The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the ninth-most passing yards this year. Plus, Vegas predicts this will be a high-scoring game, which means plenty of opportunity for Lawrence if he finds himself in a shootout.
I’m ranking Lawrence as a high-end QB2 this week and believe he should have a decent showing against a subpar Kansas City defense. He won’t be starting in most 1QB leagues, but Lawrence is one of the better streaming options this week if you’re in a bind.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. (Start, RB1)
What a difference a trade can make! Travis Etienne Jr. has been a fantasy workhorse since James Robinson was traded to the Jets two weeks ago. The simplest explanation for Etienne’s production is his increased opportunities lately. Travis was averaging just 9.7 carries per game while Robinson was in Jacksonville. Now he’s averaging 26 carries and 25.9 fantasy points per game since Robinson’s departure. Etienne had more carries than any other NFL back in Week 9.
There’s a bit of uncertainty regarding this week’s match-up. The Chiefs’ defense has conceded the fifth-fewest ground yards yet allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this year. Either way, Etienne’s volume alone should keep him in the “must start” category for the foreseeable future.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR2), Zay Jones (Sit), Marvin Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
Leading the Jaguars with a 19.7% target share, Christian Kirk has seemingly become Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. Kirk has seen a respectable 8.6 targets per game over the last three weeks, and I’d bet Jacksonville will need to throw the ball plenty to stay in this game. Kirk should be a dependable WR2 play this week with plenty of upside against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing the ninth-most passing yards this year.
There isn’t much to get excited about when it comes to Zay Jones. He hasn’t been consistent or impressive enough to warrant any start consideration. Jones has scored single-digit fantasy points in five of eight games this year and was out-targeted by the ancient Marvin Jones last week.
Evan Engram’s situation is still up in the air at the moment. He’s day-to-day with a back injury, so fantasy managers will need to monitor his practice reports this week. If he suits up, Engram should be a solid play against a Kansas City defense that’s giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. I believe he’s capable of a TE1 performance if he’s healthy, but I would rank him at the tail end of the TE1 tier.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Patrick Mahomes is the second-highest-scoring fantasy QB this year and is on pace for his best fantasy season since 2018. Mahomes has been throwing the heck out of the ball lately (averaging 434.5 passing yards over his last two games) and should continue to thrive in the passing game against a Jaguars defense that’s given up the 11th-most passing yards this year. Fire up the star QB with confidence.
Running Backs
Jerick McKinnon (Sit), Isiah Pacheco (Sit), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Sit)
As it stands now, it seems Jerick McKinnon is technically the RB1 in Kansas City. I say “technically” because, although he led all backs last week with a 62% snap share, he still only had three rushing attempts. That said, McKinnon still saw a healthy eight targets through the air.
Many expected rookie Isiah Pacheco to take over the lead-back duties in Week 7. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen enough usage or production from Pacheco to warrant start consideration yet. Isiah was on the field for 22% of the Chiefs’ snaps last week and only saw five rushing attempts and one target. Pacheco should be stashed on the bench until the youngster starts producing respectable fantasy numbers.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy value has taken a nosedive lately. The third-year running back hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points in four games and seems to be falling out of favor within the Chiefs’ organization. “CEH” played in just 17% of Kansas City’s snaps last week, had only four rushing attempts, and tallied his worst fantasy performance of the season with a measly 2.9 points. Edwards-Helaire belongs on the fantasy bench with such abysmal usage.
There used to be a time when the Chiefs’ bell cow back was a hot commodity because Kansas City tended to feed them a ridiculous amount of carries each week. Unfortunately, it seems those days are long gone. The Jaguars have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs this year, and I still can’t bring myself to get excited about any of these guys because the backfield is so murky right now. I recommend a “wait and see” approach with Mckinnon and Pacheco, but I don’t feel good about CEH’s future.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Start, WR2), Mecole Hardman (Start, WR3), Kadarius Toney (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
Averaging over 108 yards and 22.1 fantasy points over his last three games, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been one of the most dependable receiver options for Kansas City lately. Travis Kelce is the only Chiefs player with more targets than JuJu this year. The impressive fantasy production should continue this week as Smith-Schuster takes on a Jaguars defense allowing the eleventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. JuJu is a must-start high-end WR2 this week with plenty of potential to break into the WR1 tier.
Things seem to be trending in the right direction for Mecole Hardman lately. The fourth-year receiver is on a three-game touchdown streak and saw a season-high nine targets last week. The Jaguars have given up the eleventh-most passing yards so far, so Hardman should be a good WR3 play with plenty of upside if he continues seeing a sizable target share this week.
Kadarius Toney made his Chiefs debut last week and caught both his targets. The Chiefs acquired Toney for a reason, and KC will continue to work him into their offense. That said, we need to see more volume and production from the sophomore receiver before we can trust him in fantasy lineups. Toney is worth a bench stash for the time being.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s speed means he’s always capable of breaking off a big play, but his fantasy output hasn’t been any better with the Chiefs than it was with the Packers. “MVS” is averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game which is right near his career average of 7.3 points per game. Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been consistent enough to start confidently.
Travis Kelce has scored 20 or more fantasy points in half of his games this year. The veteran tight end is commanding a massive 23.1% of the Chiefs’ target share and is on pace to finish the season as the overall TE1. The Jaguars are the fifth-best team against fantasy tight ends this year, but that won’t be enough to downgrade this elite player.