NFC Showdown!
Speaking of proven points, in the last two weeks the breadwinner of this backfield has been Jamaal Williams. Williams continues to see the majority of the usage in Detriot, having a 61% snap count last week vs Green Bay. The Bears allow 22 ppg to running backs, fourth-most in the league. Williams was missing from Wednesday’s practice, so monitor that closely.
If I roster both I’m more than likely starting both Lions’ running backs. If I have too much talent and can only start one, as crazy as it sounds I’m leaning toward Williams in my lineup over Swift.
Justin Jackson will only have value if both Swift and Williams miss this week. Monitor the health of this backfield entering this weekend.
Kalif Raymond caught all three of his targets last week, but he’s not seeing the volume or production to deserve any time in your fantasy lineup. Josh Reynolds didn’t play last week, and even if he plays this week I’m not starting him. Brock Wright was Brock Wrong last week. Despite seeing an 81% snap count, Wright had one target with no points to show for it. I’m not trusting Wright in my starting matchup.
Chicago Bears
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (Start, High-QB1)
Justin Fields exploded onto the scene over the last few weeks including a monstrous 42.7 points last week against the Dolphins. He’s home again this week playing divisional rival Detriot Lions who allow 23.25 ppg to QBs, the third-highest in the NFL. There’s not much else to say here, I expect Fields to continue his second-half surge and put up high-QB1 numbers this week.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, Low-RB2), Khalil Herbert (Sit, Flex)
What is it with NFC North teams and confusing backfields? Much like the Lions, the Bears have a guy who should be the clear number one in David Montgomery, but who often looks worse than his backup, Khalil Herbert. If I’m choosing one to start I’m always picking Montgomery. Looking across the last four weeks, total rushing attempts (60 vs 42) and average snap count percentage (68.5 vs 29.75) both favor Montgomery. It’s true that both receiving touchdowns (1 vs 0) and average yards per carry (3.675 vs 6.305) favor Herbert, but I’m in the business of chasing opportunity. More often than not Montgomery gets the opportunity, and that means he gets the starting job in my lineup. Whichever one you start, they’re facing a Lions’ defensive giving up the sixth-most 21 ppg to runnings backs.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Darnell Mooney (Start, WR2), Chase Claypool (Sit, Low-WR2), Dante Pettis (Sit), Equanimeous St. Brown (Sit), Byron Pringle (Sit) Cole Kmet (Start, High-TE2)
For the first time all year, Darnell Mooney has found the end zone. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Mooney had his best game of the season last week. He added seven catches on eight targets for 43-yards to pair with that touchdown for a total of 17.5 points. Eight targets are his second-highest of the season and I’m projecting this trend of Fields being more pass-happy will continue. With that said, I like Mooney as a WR2, especially against a Lions’ defense allowing 24.5 ppg against wide receivers this season.
In his Bears’ debut, Chase Claypool was targeted six times but only managed to bring in two of them for thirteen yards. Six targets are a good sign to me that the Bears want to get him involved in the offense. If I’m only starting one Bears wide receiver I’m sticking with Mooney for now, but Claypool is a name to watch. If you have the bench space he’s worth a roster spot.
With 9.1 and 22(!) points in his last two games, I’m keeping Cole Kmet on my fantasy radar. If you don’t have a top tight end it could be worth taking a shot on Kmet this week. He’s facing a Lions’ defense allowing 9.75 ppg to tight ends, third-most across the league. He’s had three touchdowns in the last two games, and I worry that pace isn’t sustainable. However, I believe his six targets in last week’s game are signs of things to come. Kmet should be rostered in every league, even if he sits on your bench as you wait and see how he develops over the next couple of weeks.
Keep Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle away from your lineups and benches in all circumstances.