Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 13th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Betting Odds: MIA -3.5, 48.5 total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Estevão Maximo (@estevao_maximo on Twitter)
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett (Sit)
The Browns will have an uphill battle in a fiercely competitive AFC North to make the playoffs after losing five of their first eight games. The Browns were always going to have a difficult season without their starting QB for two-thirds of their season.
Those two statements are true, but interestingly enough, the offense, and more so, Jacoby Brissett, hasn’t really been the cause for the Browns’ struggles so far. Yes, at pivotal moments against the Chargers, for instance, Brissett faltered when the pressure was highest trying to secure a game-winning drive, but overall, the production has been there.
The Browns’ passing attack is top 10 in net yards per passing attempt (6.5), and although the volume isn’t really there, Brissett has averaged 233 passing yards per game since Week 2, with the highest mark coming last week with 268 against the Bengals, and the lowest being 205 in Week 3 against the Steelers.
Still, there’s very little touchdown upside in this offense for Brissett, making him a non-play in standard leagues.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (Start, RB1), Kareem Hunt (Start, FLEX)
Justin Fields is going to skew the Dolphins’ rush D numbers somewhat for the rest of the season, but the truth is that this Fins’ defense is 12th in points allowed to opposing running backs, and although the Browns have the farthest thing from your run-of-the-mill running game, it’s not going to be a cakewalk in Miami.
Nick Chubb truthers may be coming out of the woods to defend the Browns’ star back, but nothing has really changed. The fantasy community has always acknowledged Chubb’s talents as a football player, and one of, if not the best runner in football, but his snap rate sits at 53.5, he is still thoroughly uninvolved in the passing game, which makes him reliant on multiple touchdowns to truly put up a difference-making week, and those are susceptible to a variety of factors.
Right now, Chubb has to be looked at as an RB1 especially with a number of disappointing outlooks on the year, from the injury woes of Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, and D’Andre Swift to the struggles of Najee Harris, there just aren’t that many elite options.
The trade deadline came and went, and Kareem Hunt remains a Brown. The former Chiefs’ running back is coming off a 15-touch game against the Ravens and can be looked at as a solid if unspectacular FLEX play moving forward.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Start, FLEX), David Bell (Sit), David Njoku (Sit)
As stated earlier, the Browns don’t have a lot of passing game volume, especially in contrast with their opponent, but a significant bulk of it has gone to Amari Cooper. The former Cowboy has three 100-yard games on the season and has reached double-digit targets on four occasions.
With Watson returning, Cooper can easily make the jump into WR1 territory if the connection is there, but for now he is one of the more intriguing WR2 plays out there, and with Njoku’s status somewhat uncertain, he certainly doesn’t have a lot of competition for targets.
Quietly, Donovan Peoples-Jones has put up 70 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games and has entered himself into the conservation as a playable option. The Dolphins’ D has allowed the tenth most points to opposing wideouts. There have been some rumors about David Njoku possibly playing this week, but for now, I’d work under the assumption he won’t, especially with the nature of his injury and the recovery time, which makes DPJ all the more appealing FLEX play.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
Mike McDaniel is a hero for not running the ball on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion. The Dolphins are a complete outlier in that department with a run percentage of under 5% in that scenario, when 29 of the other 31 teams are higher than 20%.
Miami is thoroughly exploring the best one-two punch wide receiver duo in the league with a prolific passing attack commanded by your QB1, Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, you heard me right. Even with no rushing upside, Tua is a QB1.
Everyone can knock his weekly underthrown deep ball to Tyreek Hill, but here is what the numbers show: the best QBR and passer rating in the league (80.2 and 115.9), number one in net yards per passing attempt (8.54), and he’s tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (15) despite missing multiple games.
Treat Tua as a QB1 rest of season, until further notice.
Running Backs
Jeff Wilson (Start, RB2) Raheem Mostert (Start, FLEX)
This is a gamble on the part of yours truly. Into the valley of death rode the six hundred. Raheem Mostert has been the lead back for the Dolphins in 2022, beating out Chase Edmonds for the role, and the trade of Edmonds to Denver seemed to indicate that the organization was all in on Mostert in 2022.
However, the front office didn’t stop there and went on to add Jeff Wilson Jr., and in the first game since those deals, Wilson Jr. actually led the backfield in snap share, even if slightly (49% to 47%). Wilson out-gained Mostert (51 to 29) on the same nine carries, and also caught all three of his targets.
Mostert has been decent enough to get the nod over Edmonds, but he certainly hasn’t played well enough to keep someone from coming in and taking over the role.
The Browns’ D is coming off completely shutting down the Bengals offense, but it has actually struggled quite a bit against the run, allowing the fifth most points to opposing running backs. Wilson Jr. in a limited week already split work with Mostert, banking on him building off that, he could certainly be a low-end RB2 play, in a favorable matchup.
However, it’s too early to give up on Mostert if you roster him, so feel free to start him as a FLEX option, and hope this one-game trend doesn’t continue.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR1), Trent Sherfield (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE2)
If anything, Tyreek Hill is bound for some positive TD regression, which frankly is a scary thought as the league leader in receiving yards is already on pace for a phenomenal fantasy campaign. It’s hard to look at two options on the same team as WR1 material, but how can you not?
Jaylen Waddle has been a machine with Tua at QB, and even squeezed in a 129-yard performance against the Vikings without the former Alabama signal-caller at QB. Hill and Waddle are simply set-it-and-forget-it plays. Enjoy the volume.
Mike Gesicki wasn’t traded, unfortunately. The Dolphins tight end is talented enough that he’ll sporadically deliver you a big game, but he’s clearly not a focal point of this offense, and there’s just no way to tell when he’ll go off. Consider Gesicki a TE2 play for now.