Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 13th, 9:30 am ET
Location: Allianz Arena, Munich Germany
Betting Odds: TB -2.5, 44 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Dustin Ludke (Twitter: theDunit13)
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Start, QB2)
Come December when we are talking about league winners and the best waiver wire pickup, Geno Smith‘s name will be talked about a lot. He is QB8 on the season and has 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has two games with no touchdowns but in every other game, he has multiple touchdowns. He is on a hot streak with three straight games with 2 TDs. He is completing 73.1% of his passes and is twelfth in passing attempts. The matchup this week isn’t the greatest as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving up the 19th most points to quarterbacks at 15.34. They are rated as the fourth-best coverage defense at 82.0 by PFF.com. I’m starting him as a QB2 this week. He has three weeks in each scoring range (QB1, QB2, Sit). The Bucs haven’t been scoring a ton of points, which looks to continue. If the Seahawks can keep with their solid game plan, it sets up Smith to play well.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (Start, RB2)
It’s a rare thing to see a true bell-cow running back but we have one in Seattle with Kenneth Walker. With the injury to Rashaad Penny back in Week 5, Walker has seen on average 22 carries a game with only one game under 20. He is averaging 5.14 yards per carry. This is behind a middle-of-the-road run-blocking offensive line and a team with two great wide receivers. He is on a five-game scoring streak which has helped propel him to RB17 overall on the season. He gets a tough matchup against a stout rush defense in the Buccaneers, who have given up the third-fewest points to running backs at 17.69. They have been able to bottle up rushers like Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Najee Harris. I don’t expect a stellar week from Walker but he should still be started as an RB2. The volume he is getting makes him an auto start and he only needs one big rush to put him into the RB2 production range, especially if he finds the end zone. You have to feel great about a guy who was drafted late or possibly found on waivers after the first few weeks of the season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
D.K. Metcalf (Start, WR2), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR2), Will Dissly (Sit, TE2), Noah Fant (Start, TE2)
It’s a chicken and the egg scenario in Seattle. Did the talents of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett help produce Geno Smith’s outstanding year or did Geno’s talent help Locket and Metcalf have one of the best halves of their careers? Whichever side you land on, you can’t deny that the offense is clicking. Metcalf is coming off a two-week scoring streak and averaging 8 targets a game over that span. He is leading the team in targets for the season with 68 and has four touchdowns on the year. You can fire him up as a WR2 this week. He has to go against the Bucs who are giving up 32.4 points to the wide receiver position which is middle of the road at 19th overall.
Tyler Lockett on the opposite side of the field has to lead the Seahawks in routes run at 282 compared to Metcalf at 268. He trails Metcalf in targets by 4 with 63 but has more receptions and the same number of touchdowns. It will come down to the matchup. If Lockett can get off coverage by Jamel Dean and gets Carlton Davis, he will have a better game. He is a WR2 along with Metcalf. After Lockett, you can’t start any other receiver. Dee Eskridge played on only 53% of the Week 9 snap and failed to catch either of his two targets.
The tight ends for the Seahawks are interesting to me this week. Noah Fant and Will Dissly have played well recently. Both played a similar snap share in Week 9 with 44 and 43 respectively. Fant is the one I want to roster if I’m picking one. He ran more routes compared to Dissly, 24 to 14, and saw six targets compared to four. Dissly did find the end zone earlier in the season in three games while Fant has only hit paydirt once this season back in Week 4. Tampa is giving up the 8th most points to tight ends so they could be sneaky plays. I would start Fant as a TE2 and sit Dissly as a TE2. I want more opportunities when I’m looking to get a flyer at the tight end position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB2)
Tom Brady gets to play in his fourth country on Sunday when he makes the start for the Bucs in Germany. Brady has not been great this year as it looks like Father Time has finally caught up with him. He only has ten touchdowns on the season and only one game with multiple touchdowns. Any given Sunday, Tom can go out and be as good as he once was but I’m not counting on that. Given that all the drama surrounding his personal life is now somewhat over, he maybe can focus on football. I don’t think that has had a major impact on the field performance but you never know. He faces the Seahawks defense which is giving up the 11th most points to quarterbacks at 17.41 according to fantasydata.com. Given the international matchup and matchup, I think you can start Brady as a solid QB2. He lacks the massive upside that rushing quarterbacks have and isn’t throwing multiple touchdown games anymore but is efficient with the ball, having thrown just one interception on the season despite leading the league in pass attempts.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2), Rachaad White (Sit)
The passing game isn’t the only thing that has struggled in Tampa Bay as the rushing game isn’t off to a great start either. Leonard Fournette is currently having one of the worst statistical years of his career. He only has two touchdowns through nine games which puts him on pace for just four TDs. He is only averaging 3.35 yards per carry which is just above his 2018 season low of 3.30. The good news for Fournette owners is that he is on pace for 228 carries which would be the third-highest in his six-year career. He gets the Seahawks who are giving up the tenth most points to running backs so it looks like a great matchup for Fournette to get back on track. He is a solid RB2.
Fournette is starting to lose work to Rachaad White more as the weeks go on. Fournette hasn’t seen double-digit carries in the past three weeks while White came just shy of Fournette’s carry total in Week 9. White isn’t playing on a ton of snaps, not yet having eclipsed the 50% mark in a game. He is being used just like Fournette in terms of his involvement in both the rushing and passing games. I don’t think you can start him but he is a name that you need to know if something were to happen to Fournette.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Godwin (Start, WR1), Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Julio Jones (Sit, FLEX), Russell Gage (OUT), Cade Otton (Start, TE1)
The Seahawks have a not-great secondary so this looks like a good matchup for the pass catchers from Tampa. They only have one player rated over 70 on PFF.com in Tariq Woolen. They are giving up the fourth fewest points to wide receivers at 27.24. It will be about the matchup for Mike Evans this week. Woolen held DeAndre Hopkins to one target and no catches in Week 9. The Bucs will have to move Evans around enough to get him onto different coverage. Evans has seen double-digit targets in the past three games but has only scored twice this season and not since Week 4. I still think you can start Evans as a WR2.
Chris Godwin has come back from his early season injury and has seen double-digit targets in five out of six games but has yet to find the end zone. He is playing 75.3% of his snaps from the slot position which will draw coverage from Coby Bryant who is rated at 58.0 in coverage and just allowed Rondale Moore to post 8 targets, 6 receptions, and 62 yards in Week 9. It’s a great matchup for Godwin who continues to get back into his WR1 groove. I think he can be started as a WR1 this week.
Veteran Julio Jones has missed a ton of games this season dealing with injuries. He has been active the past two weeks and only played over 50% of the snaps once which was Week 8. He has seen nine targets over the past two weeks but has firmly fallen to the WR3 on this offense behind Evans and Godwin. Given the tough matchups, I’m not starting Julio even though he will probably be in the flex range. I don’t think you can start any other wide receivers like Scotty Miller.
Rookie Cade Otton caught the game-winning touchdown last week and continues to be a bright spot for the future. He has benefited from Cameron Brate being out with a neck injury. Otton was second on the team in Week 9 with 53 routes run. That ties in with Mike Evans and only trails Godwin. He is a solid tight-end play this week. The Seahawks are giving up the second most fantasy points to the tight ends at 19.98. He is playing on average 80% of the team’s snaps since Week 4 and has been over that number the past three weeks. You can fire him up as a TE1 this week.