Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 13 1:00 Eastern
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville TN
Betting Odds: TEN -3.0, 39.0, per Caesar’s
Network: CBS
Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
Coming into Week 10 on the road, Russell Wilson has thrown 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions over the last 3 games, averaging a 55.8% completion rate. He is going to have to continue working with his backup center as they have placed the starter on IR and one of his OTs is questionable to start the week. Big thanks to Patrick Mahomes, for utterly destroying any passing statistics I was going to list here for the Titans’ defense. I can tell you that Tennessee’s defense has the fourth-highest quarterback hurries in the NFL and has registered 10 sacks over their last three games. Wilson is getting sacked on average about 3.5 times per game this season. Denver is going to be throwing it in this game because no team has been successful in establishing the run against them after Week 1. Denver’s offensive struggles are well-documented, and Wilson has only achieved 20+ fantasy points once this season. Given the extra week to do high-knees because of the BYE, I like Wilson’s volume to get into the QB2 tier. He’s going to need to throw multiple touchdowns to get into the QB1 status, and he’s only thrown for more than 1 touchdown in a single game this season (and he only threw 2 in that game).
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, Flex), Latavius Murray (Sit), Chase Edmonds (Sit)
This is the order in which the depth chart lists them, so we’ll rank them accordingly. Running backs facing Tennessee tend to get their points from the passing game work, and for Denver, that means Melvin Gordon if we’re judging by the stats so far. The Titans allow the fifth-fewest yards per rush, the second-fewest rushing yards allowed on the season, and the least amount of rushing touchdowns given up in the NFL. Latavius Murray has gotten more rushing work over the last three games, but with the addition of Chase Edmonds, I don’t know what that means moving forward. I can see them going with the tepid hand approach, as you cannot ride the hot hand if no one is “hot.” I haven’t seen a hot hand ever since Javonte Williams went down, and I don’t think I’m going to see it still versus this Titans rush defense. I don’t want to start anyone if I can help it.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Start, WR2), Courtland Sutton (Start, WR2), KJ Hamler (Start, FLEX), Greg Dulcich (Start, TE1)
So if you’re not running it against Tennessee, you’re throwing it. One of these wide receivers is going to go over 15 points and near 20, and the other is going to be just under 15 points. Recent stats say it’ll be Jerry Jeudy with the good game, but it could just as easily be Courtland Sutton. Sutton is in a bit of a funk. In the last three games, he’s getting WR1 snap count participation but is putting up sub-WR3 numbers. He’s averaging 2 catches per game and scoring less than 5 fantasy points in each of those games. Jeudy has benefited from that, getting 25 targets over his last three games to put up 213 yards and a touchdown. Either way, both receivers should look good going against Tennessee who is ranked 30th on the year in fantasy points given up to the wide receiver position.
KJ Hamler shows up here based on potential volume alone to put in some FLEX-worthy numbers for your fantasy team this week if you are in a deep league or are hurting at the position. I’ve had to cover two of the three games Greg Dulcich has played in and both times I’ve gone with “I dunno, not much history to judge off here” so I’m going to give in and say the double-digit fantasy point streak continues. The Titans showed last week they are susceptible against the tight end (though to be fair, that tight end was Travis Kelce). I say Dulcich is still mad after being snubbed for the lead role in just released movie Weird, so I’m going with him to come through for you the fourth week in a row. That said, I realize I’ve probably just jinxed him to get 2 catches for 10 yards. My bad.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill (Sit), Malik Willis (No)
As of this writing, I don’t know yet who is starting for Tennessee, and if I’m being honest I don’t care either. Yes, the Broncos are a blitz-happy team and that can lead to good scramble yards, but even if Malik Willis scrambles for 100 yards on the day, that’s not good enough from your quarterback position if you’re only completing 5 passes for the entire game!
And Ryan Tannehill ain’t scrambling! I’ve also covered this match-up in my weekly streaming D/ST column which you can also find on this site (I am shameless when it comes to the plugs)! The Broncos are surrendering the third-fewest air yards per pass and the second-fewest yards after the catch. Denver has given up the fewest passing yards on the season and the fewest passing touchdowns on the season, and it’s not even close (exclamation count: 4. Okay calm down)! Only the Eagles are a close second to their net yards per attempt allowed. I know I’m supposed to list the stats that support the position here, but I figure if I’m going to recommend against starting anyone at the position, I should list the defensive stats instead that back those up instead.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, absolute unit RB1)
So yeah, I’m supposed to list statistics to back up my claim. Fine. 135. That’s the rushing yards Derrick Henry is averaging in his last 5 games. What else can I put here? Oh, here you go: Last year he threw one pass for one touchdown. So that means he has a 100% touchdown rate when he throws the ball. That’s must-start material. I mean, what are you going to do? NOT start someone who had a 1-to-1 completion-to-touchdown ratio?
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Robert Woods (Sit), Austin Hooper (Sit)
Alright, see you all next week!
… Still there? Umm, alright so Robert Woods early in the season had two games in the range of WR3 points sandwiched in between two games in the FLEX range. But in the last three games, he’s only averaging 2.5 fantasy points a game. Austin Hooper caught two of Willis’ five completions last week! That’s something. Even when Tannehill is starting, he’s only gone over six points once this year. In the lower-tier tight-end range of the touchdown lottery, he still hasn’t even caught one.
I had to google the Titans’ depth chart to remember who the other pass catchers on the team are. Notice they did not make the list for me to even tell you why I would not start them either. Regardless of all of that, this is a Broncos pass defense that’s had an extra week to prepare. This is all assuming Tannehill has the start. If he’s out again, then so am I on all of these receivers. I mean, I guess I was already out with my rankings, so I suppose that qualifier wasn’t needed after all. So yeah, I don’t know how to end columns, bye.