Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 13th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Odds: NO -2.5, 40.5 Total on Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Andy Dalton (Sit)
Andy Dalton is the starter for now, according to Coach Dennis Allen, but I don’t know if you want him to be your starter. Dalton has been a QB2 all of one week this year but has a decent matchup this week. The reason I’m down on him is the fact that he’s completely dependent on his weapons. Dalton doesn’t have mobility as Kenny Pickett does, and with the possible return of top pass rusher TJ Watt that mobility would come in handy. The Steelers are a very opportunistic defense, as they have picked off eight passes, and Dalton has thrown four interceptions in the past three games. Overall the Steelers have been bad against QBs but my gut is telling me with a bye and their defensive MVP returning that we’re going to see a good outing from the Pittsburgh defense. Dalton is a sit for me this week.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1)
Alvin Kamara looked pedestrian after his 40-point performance against the Raiders. Last week he had 12 touches and gained 62 yards. Kamara had a stretch of RB1 performances in three of the past four games. The Steelers have allowed 18.3 fantasy points per game and have given up 247 receiving yards to backs. I expect Kamara to get back to his RB1 form this week as the Saints are limited with weapons, and Kamara was averaging around nine targets a game in the last three games.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Trequan Smith (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Start, Low-End Flex), Taysom Hill (Start, Low-End Flex)
Chris Olave has the efficiency numbers in just about every metric but touchdowns. He’s incredibly consistent, putting up five top-24 performances in eight games this year. Olave has a 27% target share and a red zone target share of 28 %. This should get better with Michael Thomas out for the season and Jarvis Landry still not a full go. This week Olave plays the worst team against fantasy wide receivers, allowing 31.8 points per game. Olave should be a big contributor this week, and if he scores a TD, he can be a WR2 this week.
Trequan Smith played 75% of the snaps on Monday Night but was targeted only four times and scored 5.3 fantasy points. Overall he’s not made an impact in fantasy this year and shouldn’t be started this week. Juwan Johnson has had three touchdowns in the past three weeks. Making him a TE1 twice in the past three weeks. In the past two weeks, Johnson has averaged an 85% snap share. Dalton seems to like him, and if he can get a touchdown, then he’s a viable low-end flex this week. Taysom Hill is a tight end with five targets, three receptions for 16 yards, and one receiving TD. He’s a jack of all trades, an ace up Dennis Allen’s sleeve, a swiss army knife, a boom-or-bust talent. And if it weren’t for the tight-end position already being volatile, I would say bench him, but the chance that he gets 30 points is good enough for me to risk him as a low-end flex.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett (Start, QB2)
Kenny Pickett has had a rough go at his NFL career so far. To be completely fair, though, he’s played a “murderer’s row” of defenses since becoming the starter. This week he gets a Saints defense that has not been as historically dominant as in the past. This year the Saints own the worst turnover differential in the league (-10), with two interceptions (2nd lowest). I’m interested in how mobile Pickett will be in this game; the Saints have allowed the sixth most rushing yards (218) to QBs. Pickett has two rushing touchdowns this year and is coming off a bye week. This seems like the best week to put Pickett in as a Superflex QB this week.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Sit), Jaylen Warren (Sit)
Najee Harris has not been as advertised for the fantasy this year. Harris has had three straight double-digit point games in PPR. The problem is that he’s looking like an RB3 this year rather than the top 10 RB you drafted him to be. Last week he saw 63% of the snaps and, on 14 touches, was only able to gain 58 yards. The Saints have allowed 17.7 fantasy points to the RB position, but Harris might start to see his role reduced, so I’d sit him and stand by to see how the RB committee works out. Jaylen Warren had 33% of snaps and outgained Harris by 17 yards in Week 8. Warren should be considered someone for your waiver wire, but don’t start him until he takes over the backfield.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Diontae Johnson (Start, WR2), George Pickens (Start, High-End Flex), Pat Freiermuth (Start, TE1)
Diontae Johnson had four red zone targets in Week 8, which is good for his future outlook. That being said, we haven’t seen him score a touchdown this year. Johnson has also yet to have a fantasy week as a top-20 wide receiver. The Steelers just shipped off Chase Claypool to the Bears, freeing up some targets for the rest of the team. Johnson has averaged 9.5 targets a game, but hopefully, this move leads to more targets in the red zone and possibly in the slot. If Johnson can’t live up to a WR2 scoring output this week, then maybe we should consider moving on from him.
George Pickens, with Kenny Pickett at QB, has averaged seven more PPR fantasy points per game than Mitchell Trubisky. Pickens has a great opportunity ahead of him as the unquestioned number two receiver with Claypool in Chicago. The Saints have averaged 21.5 fantasy points a game to receivers, and this week, Pickens will be a solid start as a high-end flex.
Pat Freiermuth prior to the bye week, had back-to-back TE1 weeks against the Dolphins and Eagles, respectively. While the Saints’ defense has been stout against tight ends this year, they seemed to let Isaiah Likely slip through the cracks last week. The loss of Claypool should also free up some targets for the second-year tight end. I’m going to start him this week.