Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, October 6th, 7:15 pm

Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Betting Odds: DEN -3.5, 43.5 o/u total via oddshark.com

Network: Amazon Prime

Writer: Dustin Ludke (Twitter: @theDunit13)

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (Start, QB2)

Matt Ryan has started to turn his season around over the past two weeks. After throwing only one touchdown and four interceptions in his first two weeks, he has flipped those numbers to four touchdowns and only one interception in the past two weeks. He will have to continue his recent strong play to lift the Colts to a win in Week 5. The Colts look to be without star running back Jonathan Taylor so the passing game might have to carry the load. The bad news is that the Colts have to play the Denver Broncos on the road. The Broncos are giving up only 11.34 points to the quarterback position ranking them 5th best. What worries me most about Ryan is that he hasn’t been protective of the ball. He has nine fumbles on the year but luckily has only lost three of them. He has also been sacked 15 times which is just two off the league lead. He hasn’t gotten great protection which has led to his turnover woes. I can’t seem to get myself to list Ryan as a QB1 even with the strong matchup. He hasn’t scored over 20 points yet this season, by our scoring settings. He is right on the borderline this week but I still have him as a QB2.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor (OUT), Nyheim Hines (Start, RB2), Deon Jackson (Sit), Phillip Lindsay (Sit)

It was a sad day when Jonathan Taylor went down during the week four game against the Titans. It’s reported to be a high ankle sprain that can linger. On a short week, it is highly unlikely that Taylor plays. Losing Taylor will put Colt’s running game into flux. Nyheim Hines looks to be the next man up and the guy poised to take the bulk of the carries. During the year Taylor has seen 83.5% of the team carries. Hines should be in line for a similar percentage of the workload but I expect the total number of rushes to come down. The Colts are averaging 24 carries a game. Without Taylor I expect the number to come down to under 20. Hines hasn’t been great on the very limited carries he has gotten this season. He is only averaging 1.38 yards on his eight carries. The value for Hines is his pass-catching ability. He has so far received 19 targets across the four weeks of the season and has been able to produce 113 yards. He has yet to get into the end zone. Finding the end zone has been an issue for all Colts running backs with Taylor only having one on the season.

The Colts brought back late preseason cut Phillip Lindsay to play a part in the run game along with second-year player Deon Jackson. Jackson has been primarily a special teams player so far this season. He does have two carries back in week two where he got negative three yards. Much like the Broncos below, I’m in a wait-and-see mode with anyone outside of the primary backup. I think Lindsay and Jackson can be low-priority waiver adds but should be started this week given we don’t know who will be the backup to Hines or how long Taylor will be out after this week. In Week 12 of the 2020 season where Taylor missed the game, Hines received 10 carries and Jordan Wilkins got 6. Trying to decide who will get 6 carries is not a dilemma I want to spend mental energy on this week. Hines should get work in a game that projects to be close. I think you can fire him up as a low-end RB2 against a Broncos defense that is giving up the 6th fewest points to the running back position.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Michael Pittman (Start, WR2), Parris Campbell (Sit), Alec Pierce (Start, FLEX), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit) Jelani Woods (Sit) Kylen Granson (sit)

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the waters that are the Colt’s receiving option. Michael Pittman surprised me in Week 3 playing despite being questionable and posting 72 yards on 8 catches. He followed that up with a three-catch, 31-yard day on six targets. In a game where Matt Ryan threw for a season-high 356 yards, it’s a very underwhelming day for Pittman. He did lead the team in running 38 routes. This could be a sign that rookie Alec Pierce is taking over. Pierce only ran 17 routes but posted a 6 target, four reception, 80-yard day. This is his second week in a row posting over 50 yards. Only playing 44% of the team’s snaps is not the volume you want to see but that number could increase. Parris Campbell is the team’s current number-two wide receiver. He played on 67% of the team’s week four snaps and ran 28 routes. Ashton Dulin has taken a back seat now that everyone is healthy. The Broncos are giving up the league’s least amount of points to the wide receiver position at only 13.1. I think you can start Pittman based on his skill but you should rein in your expectations. He will probably see Patrick Surtain II most of the game, which PFF.com rates at 75.8 in coverage. Pierce will probably draw Ronald Darby or K’Waun Williams, neither of whom is rated over 65.

The tight end group for the Colts is the most confusing and frustrating in the NFL. Week 4 was a Mo Alie-Cox week seeing the most target (6) and running the most routes (26). This came after Jelani Woods had a good Week 3 where he saw three targets and scored two touchdowns despite only running 11 routes. It seems that Kylen Granson is the odd man out, only seeing six targets over the past two weeks. It’s hard to trust anyone in terms of touchdown production but I will lean toward Alie-Cox as the guy to own and start as a TE2. Denver is giving up 7.7 points to the tight end position which puts them 13th on the list. It’s not an amazing matchup but considering how much the position is being targeted by Ryan it’s worth a shot in the dark for that multiple-touchdown day.

Denver Broncos

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)

Russell Wilson had a vintage day in Week 4 against the Raiders. He showed it through the air with 237 yards and two touchdowns. He also provided plays with his legs rushing four times for 29 yards and a touchdown. It was a day that fantasy managers have been waiting for since DangerRuss got to the Mile-High City. The question will be is if Russ has more weeks like that or has more like his first three weeks of the season. Combined, he’s had only 2 touchdowns and one interception. Those first three have been very disappointing for Russ and his fantasy managers. Coming into Week 5 facing the Colts, it seems like it should be a good matchup. The Colts are middle of the road (17th) in terms of giving up points to the quarterback position at 16.49. Ryan Tannehill was held to 137 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. With the injury to Javonte Williams, the Broncos could shift the offense and put it fully in the hands and arm of Wilson going forward. I expect Wilson to be “LIMITED” in his production this week. He hasn’t thrown for over 250 yards since Week 1 and has only done moderately well against really bad defenses. It took three touchdowns for him to crack the QB1 range and that for now is the outlier on the season. I still think you can start Wilson due to the possible change in the offseason but will probably be in the QB2 range.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams (OUT), Melvin Gordon (Start, RB2), Mike Boone (Sit), Latavius Murray (Sit)

It was a very sad day in the NFL when Javonte Williams went down with a season-ending knee injury. It opens the door for not only Melvin Gordon but also Mike Boone. Maybe even Latavius Murray gets some work after being signed off the Saints practice squad. Melvin Gordon was being drafted for this specific reason. He was in a close to 50/50 timeshare with Williams and now should get the first crack and get a very large portion of the rushing attempts. Williams was getting 49% of the team’s rushing attempts, while Gordon was getting 38%. One would expect Gordon to move into a role that will see 80+% of the rushing work. In Week 13 of the 2021 season when Gordon missed the game, Williams had 23 of the 27 running back carries. There is a lot of buzz around Mike Boone off waivers this week. In that Week 13 game last season, he only saw 4 carries. To assume he steps into Gordon’s 38% rushing share seems very optimistic. Boone only got 3 carries in the Week 4 game after Williams went down. There is also Latavius Murray who was being brought in. It’s a sign that they weren’t happy with what they had on the team already. Murray just rushed for 57 yards on 11 carries in London for the Saints. He could eat into the dreamed-about workload for Boone. There is a small ray of hope for Boone and Murray. Melvin Gordon has fumbled the ball four times this season, losing two of them. He did only get three carries in Week 4 despite the Javonte injury. If I’m adding Boone or Murray, I’m not starting them this week. The Colts are 7th best according to PFF.com’s run defense rankings. They are giving up only 16.5 points to the running back position (18th). It’s not a great matchup for the Bronco’s running backs especially given the possibility that the Broncos rely on the pass more. I think you can rely on Gordon to be a solid RB2 but I’m not betting on Boone or Murray this week. I think they are decent waiver adds in case something crazy happens there.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Courtland Sutton (Start, WR2), Jerry Jeudy (Start, FLEX), K.J. Hamler (Sit), Albert Okwuegbunam (Sit)

Let’s start with what we know. Albert Okwuegbunam is not startable for fantasy. He only scored in our TE2 range once and that was in Week 1. He only played on 2% of the team’s snaps in Week 4 which in reality is just one, yes, you read that right: ONE snap. No, he was not injured. I will not be spelling his name anymore even if the Colts are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to the tight end position at 12.52. K.J. Hamler bested Albert O in snaps this week playing on a whopping 8% of the team’s snaps. He did catch his one target for 55 yards, which was nice to see but the total opportunities aren’t there. He only ran three routes on his 4 snaps. Low-volume players are not something you want on your fantasy team let alone in your lineup.

Now let’s get to the two players that matter. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. The Colts are giving up the 5th fewest points to the wide receiver position at 15.52. It’s not the best matchup for the Broncos’ wide receivers but they have done well so far this season. They are contingent on Russ being good. Sutton has been the wide receiver to roster out of the pair. He has the most targets with 35 compared to Jeudy with 21. He is playing on 91% of the team’s snaps. Jeudy is playing on 60%. Sutton is also leading in red zone targets six to four. What is keeping Jeudy relevant is that he has two touchdowns on the season and Sutton only has one. Jeudy is a touchdown-dependent player with only averaging 45.74 yards per game. He would be a FLEX play for me this week. Sutton is averaging 85.75 yards per game. Given that and his high target share, you can start him as a solid WR2 this week. There is hope that the Broncos tweak the offense now and lean more toward passing. They have averaged 32 passing attempts per game so if that number gets closer to 40 there will be more opportunities to go around.