Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 9th, 2022, 1:00p Est
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Betting Odds: CLE +3, 47.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Los Angles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Any time a quarterback is throwing the ball 41.5 times per game, they are probably going to be fantasy relevant. When that quarterback is completing just under 67% of their passes and leading the league in yards, they are a must-start. That’s what we have and expect from Justin Herbert. The Chargers QB has multiple touchdowns in all but one game so far in this early season, and that is without his full complement of wide receivers. He gets the Browns Week 5 in an early game in Cleveland. The Browns are middle of the road in points given to the quarterback position at 18th giving up 15.93. This will be the first time this season that the Browns have faced a QB of this caliber. Herbert should get into QB1 range this week, which he has done three out of four weeks this year. You drafted him as one of the top three quarterbacks and while he isn’t getting the national news that some of the others are he is quietly putting together a great season.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB2), Sony Michel (Sit), Joshua Kelley (Sit, FLEX)
It hasn’t been the season that fantasy managers wanted so far for Austin Ekeler. Before this past week, he had yet to reach the end zone. He rectified that this week finding it twice on the ground and once through the air. Ekeler has fallen to 45th on the list of running backs based on total rushing attempts. There were high hopes for him this season. He is only averaging 11.4 carries per game. Last season he averaged 12.87. He isn’t a high-volume back. He has seen an uptick in targets over the last season which is an area that Ekeler excels. Last season, he was averaging only 5.87 targets per game, and so far in 2022, he is seeing 7.25 on average. That could be due to the injury to Keenan Allen. It’s a good matchup for Ekeler and the other rushers this week. They get the Browns who are letting up the 10th most fantasy points to the running back position at 23.3. Ekeler should be considered an RB1; it’s a range he has gotten into once out of the three weeks where he hasn’t scored.
As for the backups in Sony Michel and Joshua Kelley neither is getting a significant workload to be starting for your fantasy team. With Ekeler getting just under 49% of the team’s total carries the rest of the work has been mixed between the two. Neither has seen more than 25% of the team’s carries so far this season. Both are worked into the passing game with Kelley running 36 routes compared to Michel’s 36. In a week where the Chargers could get an early lead, they may want to limit the wear on Ekeler and rotate both Kelley and Michel in. It is hard to rely on that for fantasy so they are best left on your bench even if they could sneak into flex scoring ranges.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Sit), Mike Williams (Start, WR2), Josh Palmer (Start, WR3), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2) DeAndre Carter (Sit)
The Chargers have been without Keenan Allen for the past three weeks. He is currently listed as day-to-day. I’m not counting on him being available for Week 5. Allen still being out will continue to open up opportunities for Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. Williams has played on 90% of the team’s snaps and leads the team with 162 routes run. He has averaged 9 targets per game with Allen out, while scoring a TD in two of the last three games. He is worth starting as a WR2. Palmer struggled in Week 4 after producing solid fantasy points in the two weeks prior. He is still playing on 78% of the team’s snaps and is second on the team in routes run with 143. The Chargers’ wideouts get to go against the Browns, who are giving up 23.8 points to the wide receiver position, which is right in the middle at 16th overall. According to PFF, none of their starting corners or safety are graded out over 60. Palmer is worth slotting into your WR3. If he scores, he could jump into the WR2 range. After Williams and Palmer, it’s DeAndre Carter and no one else. Despite Carter playing on 61% of the team’s snaps and running 117 routes, he has only seen on average 3.5 targets a game.
After the two main wideouts, the next receiving option is tight end Gerald Everett. Everett has been a breakout star so far this season. He has two touchdowns and 211 yards on the season. Since Allen went down he has seen 22 targets over three weeks. Cleveland isn’t giving up a ton of points to the tight end position coming in at 27th and 7.8 points. On paper, it doesn’t seem like a great matchup. The Browns are better than the Jaguars who are 25th on the list. Everett was held to 2 catches for 25 yards in the Week 3 matchup. He did have six encouraging targets. I’m still starting him as a TE2 with the upside that he gets in the end zone.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett (Sit, QB2)
When Deshaun Watson got suspended not many people expected much from the Browns and Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has completed a career-high 64% of his passes currently. He has 830 yards, four touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He gets to face the Chargers who have given up the 13th most fantasy points to the QB position at 17.5. The journeyman quarterback has been hindered by the lack of solid pass-catching options and a run-first team mentality. It’s a matchup where I think Brissett can do well. PFF.com has the Chargers rated at 61.1 in coverage. The issue will be volume for Brissett this week. He has thrown the ball over 30 times three out of the four weeks. If he can be in the 35+ attempts range, he could sneak into the low-end QB1 range, but I think we have to look at him as a QB2 right now.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (Start, RB1), Kareem Hunt (Start, RB2)
This seems like a smashing week for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Chargers are giving up the 3rd most points to the running backs at 29.98. The snap share for the two running backs is 55% to Chubb and 49% to Hunt. While it’s close to even snap share, the carries have skewed to Chubb. He is getting 57% of the team rushing attempts and Hunt is down to 32%. Chubb has been the best running back in the league so far this year. He has 459 yards and five touchdowns in four games. He is a must-start right now and even more so considering the volume and the match-up. Hunt has made his work in the passing game: He has outpaced Chubb in routes run with 67 compared to 54. Hunt has been in the high FLEX range every week except week one. Given the matchup this week he could make the jump to RB2. PFF.com ranks the Chargers 20th in run defense at 57.4. If the Browns can put this game out of reach we could see D’Ernest Johnson late in the game. I don’t think that happens given how bad Brown’s defense has been.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Start, FLEX), David Bell (Sit), David Njoku (Sit, TE2)
After a down week, Amari Cooper will be looking to get back to his 100-yard ways. He has been super frustrating so far this season. His two 100-yard games in Weeks 2 and 3 are bookended by games of 17 yards and 9 yards. He is averaging 7.75 targets a game. The Chargers are giving up the 10th most points to the wide receiver position at 38.8. Cooper will most likely draw coverage from either Asante Samuel Jr or J.C. Jackson. The matchup with Jackson, who is rated at 35.5 in coverage by PFF, is the one the Browns want to see. Those plays could be massive for Cooper or Donovan Peoples-Jones, who has played over 80% of the team’s snaps every week except Week 2. He has games where he sees a ton of targets like Weeks 1 and 4, where he saw 11 and 9. On the other side, he has games like Week 3 where he only saw three targets. He is just behind Cooper in routes run at 122 (130 for Cooper) so the opportunity is there. If he can get some separation, he has that home run play in him. Rookie David Bell started to show signs of life in Week 4. He only got three targets but caught two of them and put up 35 yards. I’m starting Cooper and a WR2 based on opportunities and the hope that he gets Jackson more than Samuel. Peoples-Jones is a risky FLEX start this week. In his good games, he is a WR3. In his bad games, he is a sit. I’m banking on the matchup to provide one big play to get me enough points. David Bell is a sit but a name to watch going forward.
Tight end David Njoku has been good so far this season getting into TE2 range twice and one game being the TE2. It’s a tough matchup against the Chargers and Derwin James. James is rated at 77.6 in coverage and has historically shut downs tight ends, most notably Travis Kelce. Njoku is third on the team in routes run with 112 and is playing on 90% of the team’s snaps. He has started to set himself apart in that group of late-round tight ends but I don’t think this week is the week to start him. I’m going to put him as a TE2 but I expect him to be on the low side of that.