Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: NE -3, 45.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Sit, QB2)
Fun fact: Detroit currently leads the NFL in points scored with 140. A lot of credit goes to Jared Goff as he has started the 2022 season with numbers that rival his years as a Pro Bowler in 2017 and 2018. Goff is averaging 281 passing yards per game and is tied for the NFL lead with 11 TD passes. Goff currently has a career-high in TD percentage at 7.3%, and this past week he had 378 passing yards and four passing TDs against the Seahawks despite being without two of his best weapons on offense. Despite the hot start, it will be tough for Goff to replicate his success against a Patriots defense that has been known to take away the opponent’s primary offensive weapon. Goff is a fine option for leagues that allow for two starting QBs, but it’s hard to see him cracking the QB1 ranks this week in traditional leagues.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (OUT), Jamaal Williams (Start, low RB1/high RB2), Craig Reynolds(Sit)
As of this writing, D’Andre Swift hasn’t been ruled out for Detroit’s Week 5 game; speculation is that the team will give Swift an extra week to recover from his shoulder and ankle injuries with the BYE in Week 6. If something changes with Swift’s status, I’ll update it here, but I’d be shocked to see him on the field this weekend.
In Swift’s absence last week, Jamaal Williams performed like the RB1 many experts predicted heading into the game against Seattle’s poor defense. Williams pounded out 108 yards on 18 carries with two TDs in the loss but was only used lightly in the passing game with just three targets. Williams stands alone atop the rushing TD leaderboard this season with six but the Patriots have yet to surrender a rushing TD on the season despite allowing Green Bay to run for 183 yards last week. If Swift remains out, look for Williams to once again provide solid RB2 production with elite RB1 upside this week.
Craig Reynolds stepped in as the primary backup with Williams starting and saw 24 snaps (32%) but didn’t provide much production with only three touches in the game. Look for a similar split this week making Reynolds nothing more than an afterthought for fantasy managers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, low-end WR2 if he plays), Josh Reynolds (Start, WR3/FLEX), DJ Chark (Sit), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE1)
After struggling to finish Detroit’s Week 3 game, Amon-Ra St. Brown was finally ruled out of the team’s Week 4 game on Friday. As of today, there are still questions as to whether Detroit will let St. Brown suit up this week in advance of the team’s BYE in Week 6 but the expectation is that St. Brown will be available. St. Brown has been a critical component of Detroit’s passing attack this season with 33 targets in his three games (29% target share) and should continue in that role when he’s on the field. Fantasy managers this week are concerned if St. Brown does play if he’ll return to his pre-injury workload or if he’ll be limited. I’d expect St. Brown to be at least limited this week which is why I wouldn’t expect anything more than WR2-level production and that might be the best case.
In a bit of a surprise, Detroit ruled out D.J. Chark last week after HC Dan Campbell declared the WR “good” on Friday. Chark suffered an injury to his surgically-repaired ankle in Week 3 after playing 62 snaps but has been somewhat surprisingly ineffective when he’s been on the field this season. Chark scored in his Detroit debut in Week 1 but was shut out in Week 2. With a fully healthy roster, Chark is quickly becoming the fourth option in the passing game but might see a slight uptick in usage, depending on the statuses of Swift and St. Brown this week. Even with an increased role, it’s hard to envision Chark as anything other than bench depth right now for fantasy managers.
With St. Brown and Chark out last week, and limited the week before, Josh Reynolds assumed the WR1 role for Detroit. Reynolds saw 18 targets over the past two games and converted those into 13 receptions for 177 yards and one TD. Reynolds and Goff have a history together during their time with the Rams and it’s clear Goff trusts Reynolds as a result. Reynolds could see a slightly diminished role if St. Brown plays, but I expect Reynolds to be highly involved and should provide WR3 or FLEX value for fantasy managers this week.
It seems like so long ago when T.J. Hockenson burst onto the fantasy scene with 136 yards and one TD in his first NFL game. Fast forward 43 games and more than three years and Hockenson finally has his second 100-yard receiving game and his first multi-TD game. Now, the absences of Swift, St. Brown, and Chark certainly contributed to Hockenson’s career-best day, but it could be argued the potential has been there the whole time. Fantasy managers are hoping this is the beginning of the long-awaited breakout of Hockenson and he very we could have another game that finds him in the TE1 ranks this week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (OUT), Brian Hoyer (Sit/OUT), Bailey Zappe (Sit)
After Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain that many expect to force him out of action for several weeks, the Patriots turned to Brian Hoyer. On Sunday, Hoyer suffered a concussion in the first quarter, and with the Tua situation still on the front page, it seems unlikely that the Patriots will have any rush to get Hoyer back on the field this week. That leaves us with Bailey Zappe, the rookie from Western Kentucky who nearly guided the double-digit underdogs to an overtime upset over the Packers last week. Zappe almost certainly is in line to start this week as any QB the Patriots bring in won’t be up to speed in time to have a meaningful impact. Zappe performed about how you’d expect a third-string, rookie QB to perform and there is no reason to trust him this week. Or any Patriots QB for that matter.
Running Backs
Damien Harris (Start, RB2), Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB2)
If both Jones and Hoyer are out as expected, the Patriots almost assuredly will turn to a run-heavy approach and let Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson take some of the pressure off Zappe. The duo combined for 32 carries last week, totaling 152 yards and a Harris TD. Stevenson was the preferred option in the passing game seeing a five-to-one target share and almost played more snaps than Harris, 32 to 26. The Lions have been generous to opposing RBs this season, surrendering 587 total yards and eight TDs already this season. Given the expected volume both RBs look to receive, it’s conceivable both return RB2-level production this week and I think both are viable starting options in almost every league. I’d give a slight advantage to Stevenson if debating between the two because of his involvement in the passing game and his larger snap share.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3 if he plays), Devante Parker (Sit), Nelson Agholor (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Sit), Hunter Henry (Sit), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
After suffering a knee injury in the final preseason game, Jakobi Meyers played in Weeks 1 and 2 before the injury flared up causing him to miss the next two games. Meyers was a limited participant in practices over those two weeks, but his availability for this week’s game is still uncertain. Until we know more, fantasy managers should plan for Meyers to be out again this week. However, if he plays he’s the team’s #1 WR and could return WR3 or FLEX-level value this week.
The starting WR corps in Week 4 for the Patriots included Nelson Agholor, Devante Parker, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey with an appearance by Kendrick Bourne. As a GROUP last week, this quartet garnered 10 targets that resulted in seven receptions for 102 yards and a Parker TD. Again, if Zappe is forced into his first start, expect a heavy dose of the run game and not much more from the Patriots WRs than we got last week. Unless Meyers is on the field, you can look elsewhere for help for your fantasy leagues at the WR position. Keep them all on your bench.
If the snap counts don’t convince you that Hunter Henry is the #1 TE over Jonnu Smith in New England, then the involvement in the passing game should. Last week, Henry out-snapped Smith by a healthy 32 snaps (49 to 17), and Henry was the only TE to receive a target, seeing four in the game. Smith has been a virtual non-factor all season and can safely be dropped in all but the largest of leagues. Henry might see a slight uptick in targets this week if Zappe starts because a big target in the middle of the field is an attractive option for inexperienced QBs. Even then, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Patriots allow Zappe to throw many passes and that makes Henry a pass for me this week. Keep Henry on your bench in Week 5.