Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 9th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL
Betting Odds: JAX -7, 44.5 total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter)
Houston Texans
Quarterback
Davis Mills (Sit, Low QB2)
Davis Mills is currently QB24 on the year (up four spots since last week!), with Trevor Lawrence, Jacoby Brissett, Baker Mayfield, and Marcus Mariota ahead of him. The Jaguars are giving up an average of 16.5 to opposing signal-callers. Avoid Mills in all but desperate situations, even in 2-QB leagues you shouldn’t have to look hard to find better options.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (RB1), Rex Burkhead (Sit, Low Flex)
Dameon Pierce! That’s it, that’s the tweet. Pierce finished RB5 last week with a 25.9-point performance. He’s RB14 on the year and the Jaguars defense gives up an average of 17 points per game (ppg) to opposing running backs. Pierce handled all rushing attempts for the Texans last week. His 22 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets) to Burkhead’s 5 only further cement whose backfield it is.
Burkhead did find the endzone last week and caught all five of his targets, but I don’t see that type of production as the norm. Burkhead continues to ride my bench in all but deeper leagues, and even there, free agency may be a more appropriate destination for him.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandin Cooks (Start, Mid WR2), Nico Collins (Sit), Chris Moore (Sit), Brevin Jordan (Sit), O.J. Howard (Sit, Low TE2)
If you read my articles in the past covering Week 3’s Texans @ Bears matchup or Week 4’s Texans @ Chargers game then this next part will sound familiar to you.
Let me get the quick ones out of the way first. Do not start Nico Collins, Chris Moore, or Brevin Jordan under almost any circumstance. Moore had a decent 9.3-point outing in Week 3 and followed it by not catching either of his two targets in Week 4. Collins had a solid 11.2 points in Week 4, but he’s not consistent enough to be rostered. I wouldn’t burn my waiver or any FAAB to add him. O.J. Howard gets a slight bump with Brevin Jordan missing the last two weeks, but even that doesn’t move the needle in anything besides deeper 2-TE leagues.
Lastly, there’s Brandin Cooks, who in Week 3 I declared the only Texan you feel somewhat good about. That title now firmly belongs to Dameon Pierce. So, where does that leave Cooks?
Cooks finally did it. It took four weeks but Cooks finally found the end zone. His touchdown, combined with bringing in all seven of his targets for 57 yards, helped him put up 18.7 points, good for WR14. So what do we do with him going forward? The Jaguars allow 22 ppg to opposing WRs, so it’s another favorable matchup. I’m still tempering expectations and ranking Cooks as a mid-tier WR2. His target share is unrivaled, his 36 targets are good for 13th in the NFL and the next closest on his team are Rex Burkhead and Nico Collins with 21 apiece. The production, however, leaves a lot to the imagination. In two of his four games, he’s had four or fewer catches despite having at least seven targets.
You may not have better options to start, but with Cooks in your lineup expect boom or bust type results.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawerence (Start, QB1)
Trevor Lawerence cannot hold a football in the rain. He had four fumbles last week at Philadelphia and finished with an abysmal 5.66 fantasy points and finished as QB30 on the week. If we take away that week and only look at Weeks 1-3, Lawerence’s 58.08 puts him at QB10 in that span. Though the Texans only allow an average of 14.5 ppg (9th-fewest) to opposing QBs, I expect Lawerence to bounce back against a divisional rival and finish with another QB1 performance.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Start, RB1), Travis Etienne (Sit, Low RB2)
Here’s to you, Mr. Robinson. James Robinson, like the rest of the Jacksonville offense, was a shell of himself last week and only mustered up a measly 2.9 points. He split carries with Travis Etienne for the first time this season. I don’t see this as a cause of concern for Robinson, with the entire game plan being thrown off by the rain and Lawernce’s four fumbles. Even with his terrible performance last week Robinson is still RB11 on the season. I fully expect Robinson to bounce back against a Texans defense allowing a league-high 26 ppg to RBs.
As for Etienne’s increased role, I still see him being the pass-catching back. With his one target, he actually had more opportunities than Robinson last week. In most situations, I stash Etienne on my bench this week, but if you lost Patterson, Williams, or any other RB to injury, Etienne can crack your starting lineup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR1), Zay Jones (Sit, WR3), Marvin Jones (Sit, Low WR3), Jamal Agnew (Sit), Evan Engram (Sit, High TE2)
Christian Kirk, much like his AFC-South counterpart Brandin Cooks, also leads his team with 36 targets. The difference is Kirk sits at WR10 on the year vs Cooks’ WR37. Every week other than Week 4 in rainy Philadephia, Kirk has had at least 17.7 points. Even in the poor conditions last week Kirk was targeted nine times. Kirk is the go-to target in the offense and I expect him to be back to his usual self this week putting up week-winning numbers.
Zay Jones missed last week but put up 24.5 points in the shootout against the Chargers in Week 3. Still, I see Zay Jones as inconsistent and wouldn’t expect more than WR3 numbers on average. Marvin Jones (no relation to Zay) stepped up as the WR2 last week with Zay Jones out. With that, he had one target he couldn’t bring in. Marvin Jones is someone I’m only starting in deeper leagues. Jamal Agnew was a flash in the pan, before last week he was targeted once per game. Don’t use your waiver priority or FAAB getting Agnew, and don’t put him near your lineup in almost all circumstances.
Evan Engram has come a long way from his rookie season where he put up 173.6 points on the year. He’s currently TE19 of the year, though he’s TE14 if we only look at Weeks 1-3. The offense has a lot going on without him and I don’t expect him to take the focal point anytime soon. Texans average only 7 ppg to opposing TEs. Engram is a solid choice in 2 TE leagues but sees little value otherwise.