Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 10 at 8:20 PM ET
Location: M & T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Betting Odds: BAL -3, 48.5 Total on Oddshark
Network: NBC
Writer: Drew DeLuca (@DrewDeLaware on Twitter)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Start)
Joe Burrow‘s Super Bowl hangover began with a four-interception embarrassment at the hands of the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers. It continued in an underwhelming Week 2 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, in which the former LSU National Champion failed to throw for 200 yards. Burrow bounced back in a big way over the past two weeks, however, leading the Cincinnati Bengals to decisive conference victories over the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
Now squarely back in our circle of trust, Burrow is a clear, no-doubt-about-it starter this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Only the Detroit Lions have been more generous to opposing fantasy quarterbacks so far this season, so plug Burrow into lineups in all leagues.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB1), Samaje Perine (Sit), Chris Evans (Sit), Trayveon Williams (Sit)
Joe Mixon didn’t have the prettiest stat line last week as the fought his way to 74 yards and a touchdown. However, for the third time in four weeks, he amassed 20 or more touches, making him one of the few true volume backs left in the NFL. The Ravens’ middling run defense, 17th best in the NFL in terms of points allowed to fantasy running backs, is no reason to sour on Mixon this week.
The Ravens are giving up five yards-per-carry on the ground, and while the Ravens feature a mid-level rush defense, Mixon is no average running back. Add it all up, and there’s no reason why Mixon can’t post one of his better games of the season this week against his division rivals. Expect a Top Ten finish and solid RB1 numbers in Week 5.
Mixon’s volume unfortunately takes the wheels off of the Samaje Perine and Chris Evans wagons. Plenty of chatter flew around fantasy circles about either becoming a fantasy-relevant third-down back for the Bengals this season, but that hasn’t come to fruition. Perine has been inconsistent: 15 touches, 98 yards, and a touchdown in odd weeks; three touches for 10 yards and no touchdowns in even weeks. Meanwhile, Evans has been just plain non-existent (one touch, zero yards this season). Leave both backups on your waiver wire.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Start, WR1), Tyler Boyd (Start, Flex), Mike Thomas (Sit), Stanley Morgan (Sit), Trent Taylor (Sit), Hayden Hurst (Sit, TE2)
The Bengals’ wide receiving corps is as deep and talented as any in the league, and with Burrow starting to fire on all cylinders, “Sit Weeks” will be few and far between for this crew. Week 5 is no exception: the Ravens are allowing a staggering 41.2 fantasy points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. Mike Thomas, Stanley Morgan, and Trent Taylor won’t see the field enough to benefit, but Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Start, WR1), and Tyler Boyd (Start, Flex) are all in play.
Chase has logged 10 or more fantasy points (PPR) in each of the Bengals’ four games. Higgins has exceeded that benchmark in his last three contests, and Tyler Boyd has done so twice in four games. All three should be in fantasy lineups during Sunday Night Football. Both Chase and Higgins offer WR1 production within their most reasonable ranges of outcomes. Boyd typically sees fewer targets and is therefore comparatively inconsistent, yet he’s more likely to boom than bust this week, given his matchup. Tight end Hayden Hurst scored his first touchdown as a Bengal last week but has seen markedly fewer targets in his last two contests (6), compared to the first two games of the season (15).
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1), Tyler Huntley (Sit)
Lamar Jackson is on target for his third 1,000-yard rushing season in four years. The former Heisman Trophy award winner also leads the league in touchdown passes (11), as he did in 2019 when he won the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award. To date, Jackson is averaging six more passing attempts and nearly 50 more passing yards above his career average.
Jackson, the overall QB1 so far this season in fantasy football, has more than a full point per game on Josh Allen, the consensus QB1 during fantasy football drafts in August. Word of caution: the Bengals have been one of the NFL’s five stingiest defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks so far this season (11.7). However, they’ve faced a “murderer’s row” of Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, and Teddy Bridgewater; Jackson will be the unit’s toughest test, by far. We see no reason why he can’t finish as a Top Three quarterback this week, so enjoy the fireworks on Sunday night!
Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins (Start, RB2), Mike Davis (Sit), Kenyan Drake (Sit), Justice Hill (Sit), Patrick Ricard (Sit)
Quick, name the only Ravens running back to log more than 50 percent of the team’s snaps in 2022! No, it’s not a trick question. OK, maybe just a bit: fullback Patrick Ricard, who has compiled seven touches in four games, has taken the field for 64 percent or more of all offensive plays in each game so far. The only Ravens running back to accumulate 15 or more touches in a game so far? J.K. Dobbins, who did so last week.
Dobbins managed 63 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in limited action, which bodes well for his Week 5 prospects. Justice Hill tweaked a hamstring and will likely be inactive. Kenyan Drake hasn’t touched the football on a play from scrimmage since Week 2, and Mike Davis has played only three snaps over the past two weeks. Expect Dobbins to put up solid RB2 numbers as he takes on an even larger role this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Rashod Bateman (Start, WR3), Devin Duvernay (Sit), James Proche (Sit), DeMarcus Robinson (Sit), Tylan Wallace (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start, TE1), Isaiah Likely (Sit)
Rashod Bateman is day-to-day with a foot injury, but we expect him to try to gut it out. If he’s able to give it a go, he should be in starting lineups. The second-year Minnesota product has been targeted on an impressive 23.4 percent of his routes so far this season, locked in a virtual tie with Davante Adams. Assuming Jackson continues to pass at the same clip, Bateman should see sufficient volume to offer at least WR3 value to his fantasy football managers.
Devin Duvernay‘s fantasy production to date has been largely touchdown-dependent, meaning he offers far more variance in terms of projected points. We don’t recommend starting him, except for in large, deep leagues with more starting lineup slots than most. Meanwhile, James Proche, DeMarcus Robinson, and Tylan Wallace all belong on the waiver wire.
Last but not least, we’re not spooked by a quiet Week 4 performance by Mark Andrews; only two other tight ends have outscored him so far this season: Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson. Expect Andrews to post another Top Three tight end performance on Sunday night. It’s far less…likely…that Isaiah Likely breaks out this week; the rookie from Coastal Carolina has played only about one-third of the team’s snaps over the past two games, managing only one catch for eight yards during that span.