Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 PM ET

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL

Betting Odds: TB -9, 48 total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota (Sit, QB2)

One of the biggest appeals of having Marcus Mariota as your fantasy QB is his ability to generate yards on the ground. That was on full display in Week 1 as Mariota rushed 12 times for 72 yards and one TD, and he even had a decent passing day that week with 215 yards. Mariota’s rushing production has steadily declined since that opening game, however, culminating in a horrid game last week against Cleveland when he had three carries for five yards (discounting the final two kneel downs to end the game). Mariota also struggled when throwing the ball, completing just 36.8% of his passes for 139 yards and one INT. The Falcons have thrown the ball fewer than 30 times in each of their past three games, so efficiency is even more important with fewer attempts. The Buccaneers have struggled against the “good” QBs but have been successful in containing the “average” ones. I’d lump Mariota into that second category and suspect he’ll struggle to produce numbers worthy of fantasy consideration this week in traditional leagues.

Running Backs

Tyler Allgeier (Sit, low-end FLEX), Caleb Huntley (Sit)

A knee injury has forced Cordarrelle Patterson to the short-term IR and will keep him off the field for at least the next four weeks paving the way for rookie fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier to take over the primary RB duties. Allgeier looked good last week as he rushed for 84 yards on just 10 carries and has been tabbed the starter for Week 5 by the coaching staff. Atlanta will find a bit of a tougher test against Tampa Bay’s stingy rush defense, which hasn’t allowed a 60-yard rushing performance or surrendered a rushing TD until last week against the Chiefs. The Falcons have the #7 offensive line ranking according to PFF so this matchup is shaping up to be a case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Unless Mariota can force the defense to respect the passing game, I think it will be tough sledding for the run game but if Allgeier gets enough opportunities, he could provide FLEX value based on volume alone.

Allgeier’s backfield mate will once again be Caleb Huntley who also showed out last week against Cleveland with 10 carries for 56 yards and one TD. Huntley has only seen action in two games heading into Week 5 and played half the snaps Allgeier did in Week 4. I expect a similar split this week which makes Huntley tough to trust for fantasy managers even with the litany of injuries to the RB position over the past few weeks. Pass on Huntley this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Drake London (Start, WR2 with WR1 upside), Olamide Zaccheaus (Sit), KhaDarel Hodge (Sit), Kyle Pitts (OUT), Parker Hesse/Anthony Firkser (Sit)

After being the first WR selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, many assumed Drake London would become a large part of the Atlanta offense eventually. Well, eventually is here: London has simply dominated targets since his arrival, seeing almost 33% of Mariota’s passes this season. London has also been reliable as he’s caught 18 of his 32 targets for 231 yards and two TDs. Unfortunately for London, the Falcons have attempted just 98 passes on the season – ahead of only Chicago. This low-volume offense keeps London’s ceiling low enough to keep him out of WR1 consideration for fantasy managers but he’s a solid WR2 option in Week 5.  UPDATE: With Pitts being ruled out, London has legitimate WR1 upside now.

The rest of Atlanta’s WRs have a COMBINED 21 targets over four games, so there’s not going to be much to say about them. Olamide Zaccheaus is the only WR other than London to have seen more than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps but has been productive with his chances catching all 10 of his targets on the season for 174 yards as well as the team’s only other receiving TD. Like London, the volume simply isn’t there to recommend Zaccheaus as a potential starter this week.  KhaDarel Hodge is the other starter, but in name only. Hodge has played in less than 25% of the team’s snaps this season and has just seven targets on the season. Hodge is probably no better than the fourth option in the passing game and is not fantasy relevant at this time. Keep him on your bench (or the waiver wire) this week. UPDATE: Zaccheus and Hodge might see a bump in usage with Pitts out, but I don’t know if it will be enough to push them into FLEX consideration.  Maybe if you’re desperate, but I’d still advise you to seek out other options.

Despite his official position designation as TE, fantasy managers understand that Kyle Pitts is Atlanta’s #2 WR. Pitts is second on the team with 22 targets and is producing at a similar clip to his rookie season at 15 yards per reception, but it just FEELS like his production is lacking because he is averaging just five targets per game this season compared to the seven he got as a rookie. In addition, Pitts is catching just 45% of his targets this season while he was at 62% last year. When you combine fewer opportunities with decreased performance, you get a fantasy player that is hard to trust. The Buccaneers have shown a talented TE can produce against them (Dalton Schulz 7-62, Robert Tonyan 6-37, Travis Kelce 9-92-1) so it’s not all doom and gloom for fantasy managers with Pitts as their primary TE. It’s been tough to trust Pitts through four weeks, but I think you’ve got to give him a chance one more week and I think he can provide low-end TE1 production in Week 5.  Pitts has been ruled out for Week 5.

I’m not sure which of Parker Hesse or Anthony Firkser will draw the start in place of Pitts, but I don’t know that it will matter much.  Firkser has a connection with HC Arthur Smith from their time with the Titans and Firkser did have some good games there, so if he draws the start it might be an intriguing option. Hesse spent some time on the Titans’ practice squad in 2019 and 2020 but has seen only minimal action in the NFL to this point since joining Atlanta.  He did come out of “TE University” (Iowa) but there is not much on him besides that.  I’d look elsewhere for help at the TE position this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady (Start, QB1)

We have innumerable instances of all-time great QBs struggling to produce at the level that made them an all-time great in the latter stages of their careers. Recently we’ve seen this decline in Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. Now, I’m not ready to put Tom Brady in that category in what seems to be his final NFL season, but the fact remains Brady is currently in the midst of one of his worst seasons when it comes to TD rate (3.9%), yards per completion (10.0), and yards per attempt (6.8). Certainly, the injuries to Tampa Bay’s WRs contributed to these low numbers, but it’s still been a struggle for fantasy managers relying on Brady so far this season. The Falcons might help with Brady’s struggles as they’ve allowed two or more passing TDs in three of their four games and QBs have a near 70% completion rate against them. Brady had his best game of the season last week against Kansas City and look for that momentum to carry over into this week. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting Brady in every league format this week.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (Start, RB1), Rachaad White (Sit) 

It was a first for Leonard Fournette as the veteran logged his first game with negative rushing yards with three carries for -3 yards against the Chiefs. Fournette salvaged his fantasy day with a decent day in the passing game, catching all seven of his targets for 57 yards and a TD. Fournette’s TD last week was his first of the season as he’s struggled to generate anything after a nice Week 1 performance. The Falcons are surrendering nearly five yards per carry to opposing RBs this season and just let Nick Chubb gash them for 118 yards and a TD last week. Vegas is expecting an easy victory for Tampa Bay as the current line is nearly double digits which should lead to a more run-dominated offense late in the game helping to pad Fournette’s stats. I like Fournette to return low-end RB1 numbers for fantasy managers in Week 5.

Rookie third-round pick Rachaad White also found the end zone for the first time last week, but he’s not yet involved enough in the offense to be considered a reliable fantasy asset. White did see a nice bump in snaps last week but that was mainly because the Buccaneers found themselves behind most of the game and were trying to catch up late using the passing game. White is a nice handcuff to the manager with Fournette but his usage is simply too volatile to trust for fantasy production. Keep White on your bench this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Mike Evans (Start, high WR2/low WR1), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Julio Jones (Sit), Russell Gage (Sit), Cameron Brate (Sit)

After being forced to miss Tampa Bay’s Week 3 game against the Packers as a result of the altercation with Marshon Lattimore in Week 2, Mike Evans made quite the return with eight receptions on 10 targets for 103 yards and two TDs. Evans is still an elite red zone threat with his size and ability to outmuscle smaller DBs, and Brady trusts him implicitly when inside the five. Evans should continue to dominate targets among the WRs as he’s averaging seven per game this season and his TD upside is undeniable. If the Buccaneers build a large lead, expect Evans to be a part of it and finish as a high WR2 with WR1 upside this week.

Injuries have robbed fantasy managers of numerous games from Chris Godwin, 2022 not excluded. Godwin played just 19 snaps in Week 1 before missing the next two games with a hamstring injury. Godwin returned last week, playing 53 snaps (83%), and matched Evans’s 10 targets to lead the team. Godwin was able to catch seven for 59 yards but was able to complete the game which bodes well going forward. The Falcons have struggled against WRs this season surrendering 100-yard games to Jarvis Landry and Cooper Kupp and two TDs to Michael Thomas in Week 1. The chance for reinjury is always top of mind with Godwin, but if he’s starting he’s worth considering for fantasy managers. Given Atlanta’s struggles this year, Godwin should produce as a solid WR2 for fantasy managers in Week 5.

It might surprise you to learn that Russell Gage leads the team in targets through four weeks, but he’s been asked to contribute more than expected with the injuries that have ravaged Tampa Bay’s receiving corps. Gage should shift back to his natural slot receiver role with Evans and Godwin both expected to play a full allotment of snaps and he should shift back to the #3 option for Brady this week. As a result, Gage’s fantasy relevance takes a hit and he now finds himself on the outside looking in at a starting spot for fantasy managers this week. Unless news breaks that one of the WRs is expected to miss this week’s game, keep Gage on your bench.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Julio Jones has missed time this season with a lower-body injury. Soft tissue injuries have plagued Jones in recent years, and the 12-year veteran just can’t seem to stay on the field.  Jones didn’t play in the second half last week as HC Todd Bowles indicated “[h]e just never loosened back up for the second half.” It remains to be seen what role Jones will have with the Buccaneers going forward, but missed time for three consecutive weeks should give fantasy managers pause. He’s behind Evans, Godwin, and Gage at least in the passing game and I don’t see a path for fantasy production if all three are healthy. Pass on Jones for your fantasy lineups this week.

There are questions surrounding the availability of Cameron Brate this weekend after he exited the team’s Week 4 game with concussion symptoms. The NFL and NFLPA have determined after reviewing the hit that led to Brate’s departure that the impact was primarily absorbed by his shoulder which is why concussion protocols weren’t involved in his decision to return for one play later. Brate did not practice on Wednesday and his status for the game against Atlanta is in doubt. If Brate can’t go, the team will likely turn to rookie Cade Otton as the primary receiving TE. Neither player carries much fantasy appeal and it is advised to bench either if they play.