Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th, 2022, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Betting Odds: GB -7.5, 45 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
New York Jets
Zach Wilson (Sit, QB2)
Zach Wilson has come back from his injury and played well. He’s not as good as Joe Flacco was under center for the Jets but still won his two starts. Wilson failed to find a receiver in the end zone in Week 5 but saved his fantasy day by rushing in a score on one of his four carries. His box score numbers are concerning coming into Week 6, as he has just two total touchdowns and two interceptions. He now faces the Packers, who Footballdata.com has as having given up the 7th fewest points to the quarterback positions at 12.49. He will face the secondary filled with Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, and Eric Stokes. Only Stokes is rated under 70 on PFF.com for the season. Overall, the coverage defense for the Packers ranks at 65.6 which is 11th in the NFL, so it’s not a great matchup for the second-year QB who is looking to still be shaking off the rust from missing time in his injury. I’m not starting him as he will be in the QB2 range. Even in two-quarterback leagues, he is a low-end option.
Breece Hall (Start, RB2), Michael Carter (Start, FLEX)
We may finally have a takeover in New York. Week 5 looked like it was Breece Hall’s backfield. He out-snapped Michael Carter 69.5% to 42%. Hall had 18 carries for 97 yards and a score along with two receptions for 100 yards. He was the clear favorite in a game where the Jets dominated the Dolphins and third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Carter saved his fantasy day by scoring touchdowns on two of his carries. Both players had four red zone carries which is a positive sign for Carter owners. Both are startable this week against the Packers. While they are only giving up 22.44 points to the running back position, 20th overall on Fantasydata.com they are ranked 29th overall in run defense on PFF.com. You can put Hall in as an RB2 which might be a bit lower than owners want to see from the guy they were banking on providing RB1 upside. The reason is that he only has the two games of double-digit carries, and likely doesn’t project to reach 20 carries, so he will have to be very efficient in his opportunities to reach RB1 production ranges. Carter can still be used as he will be in the FLEX range. Given that he hasn’t been fully phased out of the offense and is still seeing equal red zone work he has the chance to score every week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Elijah Moore (Start, FLEX), Garrett Wilson (Sit, FLEX), Corey Davis (Start, FLEX), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit), C.J. Uzomah (Sit)
What a difference the quarterback change has made for the wide receivers. Elijah Moore has gone from averaging seven targets per game to now four. He was tied in Week 5 for the team lead in targets with both Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson getting four as well. Nine players saw targets in Week 5 and with the total passing attempts per game dropping from 51.6 to 28.5, there isn’t a ton of volume to produce the main guy. Davis ran the most routes with 22 followed by Moore at 19 and Wilson at 18. The good news if there is one is that it’s only those three guys. The next closest wide receiver in routes is Braxton Berrios with 6. Going against the Packers who are giving up the 11th fewest points to the wide receiver position at 29.8 is not the matchup you want to see. With the secondary that the Packers can field m, they can easily shut down a trio of underperforming wide receivers. I think Moore and Davis can be solid FLEX starts given their routes run and total snaps played. Davis played on 45 of the team’s 59 offensive snaps while Moore played on 39. I’m sitting Wilson unless I’m super desperate with injuries and bye weeks. Berrios is a gadget player who is touchdown-dependent right now.
Tight end Tyler Conklin has come back down to earth after seeing 7.5 average targets through the first four games but saw only one in Week 5. Part of that is the change in quarterback going from Joe Flacco to Zach Wilson. The other part is the return of C. J. Uzomah. Uzomah played one more snap than Conklin but ran 13 routes compared to Conklin’s seven. With the split usage and low passing volume overall, it’s a situation to avoid.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB2)
Aaron Rodgers may not have the receiving weapons he is accustomed to but he has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks out there. After a horrible week, Rodgers has scored between 16.10-16.88 points over the past four weeks. It’s not the massive games we once saw from Rodgers when he had guys like Davante Adams to throw to but he is still getting it done. He has two touchdowns in each of the past 4 games. The offensive line has been better after getting David Bakhtiari back. They have only allowed 4 sacks over the past 3 games. Facing the Jets defense that is giving up the 12th fewest points to the quarterback position (15.02) shouldn’t phase Rodgers or his owners. Rodgers is the two-time MVP for a reason and knows how to attack the weak spot of defense. You will be starting Rodgers almost every week even if he is not putting up QB1 numbers. As a QB2 he is still doing well for your fantasy team and has the potential to toss four or five touchdowns every week. As he and his receivers get more acclimated to each other, the potential only goes up.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), A.J. Dillon (Start, FLEX)
What once looked to be an even split backfield with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon now looks like a one-man show. Dillon only played on 32% of the team’s week five snaps after seeing over 50% every other week of the season. It was all Jones in London in a game where the Packers were leading for a majority. Dillon got ZERO targets and only six rushing attempts. It’s a huge blow for those who have been relying on Dillon to be a solid FLEX every week or even an RB2. This week going against the Jets could be another big day for Jones. The Jets are middle of the road in points to the running back position (15th, 22.52). PFF.com has them ranked 10th in run defense but they just gave up 113 yards to the Dolphins’ Raheem Mostert. It’s a good sign for Jones. While he is still splitting some carries with Dillon, it caps his upside at RB2. He will still be the main guy and see the largest portion of the timeshare. As for Dillon, I will chalk Week 5 as a fluke and I expect him to get back into the mix. He is still someone you can play in your FLEX. Given the total opportunities he has seen this season, he is still viable. He has a ton of upside if Jones goes down and still has the trust of Rodgers which can be a big deal in the passing game.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Allen Lazard (Start, WR3), Romeo Doubs (Start, FLEX), Christian Watson (Sit), Randall Cobb (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Sit, TE2)
While it’s a tough matchup for the Packers and wide receivers facing the Jets, I still believe there is value here. The Jets are only giving up 31.52 points to the wide receiver position. They have faced some stellar groups including the Bengals, Dolphins, and Steelers. The last two in that group suffered from poor quarterback play which probably played a part in the poor wideout play. Looking at the Bengals game, we saw them hold Ja’Marr Chase to only 29 yards but he did have six catches. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins both had around 100 yards and Higgins had a touchdown. Looking at those numbers, we can expect a decent week from Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs. Lazard is playing over 90% of the team’s snaps in the past 3 weeks. He has scored in three out of the four games he has played this year. He is second on the team in routes run despite missing Week 1. Doubs has outplayed fellow rookie Christian Watson who has been banged up and is nothing more than a situational player who cant be started right now. Doubs leads the team in routes run with 143 for the season which isn’t too surprising as he is one of the few players to play in every game. The other is Randall Cobb. Cobb is old and reliable for Rodgers. He is right behind Lazard in targets with 23 but he saw 13 in Weekn5. Outside of that, he has been nothing more than a low-end FLEX play. This week you can roll out Lazard in your WR3 spot and Doubs as a FLEX.
Tight end Robert Tonyan continues to be touchdown-dependent. He did run 22 routes in the London game but missed out on the touchdown that went to veteran Marcedes Lewis. He only played on 44% of the team’s Week 5 snaps. It’s a good sign that when he is in the game he is running routes but only getting 4 targets isn’t the amount of volume you want to see. At the tight end position, you need to find a guy who is playing more snaps or at least getting more targets. He is a TE2 this week.