Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th, 2022, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Betting Odds: IND -2.5, 41 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (Start, QB2)
Trevor Lawrence has been… well, better than last season. He has scored in four out of five games so far after only scoring in nine last season. He is on pace for over 4100 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. While Lawrence has improved as an NFL quarterback, he is still on the fringe for fantasy. He has only gotten into the QB1 range once so far this season. He was kept off the scoring sheet in Week 5 despite throwing the ball 47 times, so what will this week bring for former first overall pick and the Jaguars offense? The Colts are giving up the 13th least amount of points (15.02) to the quarterback position. It was just four weeks ago that the Colts and Jaguars crossed paths in Jacksonville. In that game, Lawrence threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns and was able to beat the Colts. It was a game that the Colts were missing Michael Pittman and now the Colts might be without Jonathan Taylor. If the Colts can’t score points, it might lead to a more run-heavy game from head coach Doug Pederson and limit the upside of Lawrence. He did have 18.5 points in that Week 2 matchup, so I believe we can pencil him into that QB2 range with upside. If the game turns into a shootout, the team may rely on Lawrence to air it out 40+ times again.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Start, FLEX), Travis Etienne (Start, RB2)
Is it happening? is it really happening? Is Travis Etienne really taking over the backfield in Jacksonville from James Robinson? It’s the second week that Etienne has out-snapped Robinson. In Week 4, it was 51% to 46, and this past week 54% to 40%. The concern and pause from those two weeks are that the two tied for rushing attempts with 8 and then 10, with neither of them running routes in Week 4. In Week 5, Etienne ran 27 routes and received 5 targets, while Robinson only ran 16 routes and got two targets. There seems to be a shift toward the former first-round pick. Robinson is still getting the red zone work, seeing five carries compared to one for ETN. The team will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed the 14th most fantasy points to the running back position with 23, although the Colts have only given up over 100 rushing yards once this season and that was to Derrick Henry in Week 4. PFF.com ranks the Colts as the 6th best rush defense, but I think you can start both of them this week. Etienne should be a solid RB2 and Robinson can be put into the FLEX.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR3), Zay Jones (Start, FLEX), Marvin Jones (Sit, FLEX), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
The Colts are giving up the fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position according to fantasydata.com. Big free agent signee Christian Kirk had a miserable performance in Week 5 only seeing 3 targets. To me it’s more a case of great coverage from the Texans instead of Kirk being a bust. Kirk should have a bounce back against the Colts and get closer to his season average of 9 targets. It all comes down to coverage: Stephon Gilmore at age 32 is rated 82.8 on PFF in coverage for the season, but the site has Gilmore slated to cover Zay Jones. Jones has seen on average 8 targets a game. If Gilmore covers Zay Jones, that will probably put Kenny Moore II on Christian Kirk or Marvin Jones. Moore II is rated at an abysmal 39.6 by PFF. Marvin Jones saw 11 targets in Week 5 after only seeing 19 the previous four weeks. Last week, Marvin Jones was second on the team in routes run with 43, behind Kirk at 48, while Zay ran 41. For the season, Kirk has run 183, M. Jones 170, and Z. Jones 139. Overall, I expect Kirk to be a WR3 this week. Marvin Jones is generally a boom-bust play, but with this matchup, I expect him to be a solid FLEX play with upside this week. Zay Jones is the huge question mark. Given the probable coverage, lower routes run, and how hit or miss he has been, I’m putting him as a low-end FLEX.
Tight end Evan Engram gets a great matchup after having a good day in Week 5. The Colts are giving up the 7th most points to the tight end position at 16.24. He is third on the team in routes run with 155 for the season. For reference the other good week this season that Engram has had was back in Week 2 when the Jags played the Colts. It should be another solid week for the tight end who saw 10 targets last week and 8 in Week 2. He has yet to find the end zone, which has kept him out of the upper echelon of tight ends, but given the matchup and history against the Colts, I’m starting Engram this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Matt Ryan (Sit, QB2)
Matt Ryan‘s lackluster 2022 season was on national television last week, and it’s a great insight into how bad his season has been. Ryan has racked up 11 fumbles but has only lost 3 of them. You then add on his 7 interceptions and you have a quarterback who has been hurting your fantasy team. Given that Ryan is 7th in passing attempts (195), 5th in yards (1376), but only 13th in completion percentage (65.6) and 17th in touchdowns (5), he isn’t doing much to help your fantasy team. He now gets to go against a team that’s given up the 9th lowest points to the quarterback position. With a tough matchup and how unimpressive Ryan has been, I think you have to sit him unless you are desperate. He has barely cracked QB2 scoring range three times this season. And in the other two games, he wasn’t even close.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Sit), Nyheim Hines (Sit), Deon Jackson (Start, RB2), Phillip Lindsay (Sit, FLEX)
It remains a huge question whether Jonathan Taylor will be back for Week 6 after missing last week with an ankle injury. If Taylor can go, I would only start him if he gets in a full practice on Friday. For those who don’t know, ankles are pretty important for running backs. There are also questions about the availability of Nyheim Hines, who left Week 5 early in the game with a head injury and was ruled out with a concussion. We will be coming back and updating as news and practice reports come out.
If Hines and Taylor can’t go, it will be Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay carrying the load. Jackson looked good on his 13 carries, averaging 4.77 yards per carry. He also saw four targets, catching all of them for 29 yards. Lindsay got 11 carries in his return to Denver and accumulated 40 yards. He also saw four targets reeling in three of them for 14 yards. They are going up against a Jaguars defense that is giving up the 8th most points to the running back position, so it’s a very good matchup for whoever is getting the bigger role. The Colts are only averaging 25 rushing attempts per game, so it’s not a huge volume especially if it’s split between Jackson and Lindsay. Having stayed up to watch that horrible prime-time game, Jackson looked like the better runner. I’m predicting Jackson will be in the low RB2 range and Lindsay will be a low-end FLEX.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman (Start, WR3), Alec Pierce (Start, FLEX), Parris Campbell (Sit), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit), Kylen Granson (Sit), Jelani Woods (Sit)
Despite the fact that Ryan hasn’t played well, it looks like we are getting a breakout from rookie Alec Pierce. He only played on 59% of the team’s snaps in Week 6, but he saw a team-high 9 targets on 36 routes, hauling in 8 of them for 84 yards. He is becoming a great complement to Michael Pittman, who is averaging 9 targets and 70 yards per game over the four games he has played. If the Colts can find a way to start getting the wide receivers into the end zone, we could be seeing two very solid fantasy performers.
Parris Campbell is still out-snapping Pierce and is the number two on the team in that regard. Despite playing on 92% of the team’s snaps in Week 5, he only saw three targets. He hasn’t seen more than four targets in a single game and hasn’t gone over 50 yards this season. The Jaguars are giving up the seventh fewest points to the wide receiver position at 29.2. It’s not the best matchup for the wideouts. While the Jaguars don’t have a great cover corner, they don’t have any glaring weak spots outside of Darious Williams who grades out at 43.6 in coverage on PFF.com for the year (but was rated 75.3 in Week 5). The rest of the corners rate above 65 on the year so the Jags can mitigate any weak areas.
The tight ends continue to be a mess in Indy. Let’s start with what we know. Rookie Jelani Woods is a sit. Despite catching two touchdowns back in Week 3, he hasn’t played over 30% of the team’s snaps in a game this year. Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson played around 45% of the team snaps in Week 5. It seems Granson might be starting to edge his way into the lead; he saw three targets last week and has 18 on the season. Alie-Cox is sitting at 15 targets for the season but only saw one in Week 5. Granson has yet to score, while Alie-Cox got two touchdowns in Week 4. The Jags are giving up the 7th fewest points to the tight end at 7.72. It’s not a great matchup and given the mix of the two guys and not being able to predict which one will be the main guy, I’m avoiding them both.