Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Betting Odds: CIN -2, 43.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Start, QB1)
It could be argued that Joe Burrow has the best receiving corps in the NFL, but the Super Bowl runner-up has seen a slight decline almost across the board from last season. Burrow has a lower completion percentage (64.9%), a lower TD percentage (4.7%), lower air yards per attempt (6.7 yards), and is averaging fewer yards per game (263.2) than last season. Additionally, after additions along the offensive line to improve that area, Burrow is being sacked at a higher rate (3.6 sacks per game) than last season when he lead the league in taking 51 sacks (2.8 sacks per game). New Orleans has been pretty stingy against opposing passers until last week when they surrendered 268 yards and three TDs to Geno Smith, and there are questions about whether star CB Marshon Lattimore will be able to play on Sunday. Despite the decrease in stats from last season, Burrow is still putting up above-average fantasy numbers and currently sits around QB7 in traditional leagues and I think that trend continues this week. Go ahead and start Burrow again this week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB1), Samaje Perine (Sit)
The rebuilt offensive line hasn’t been a benefit to Joe Mixon either as he is at the lowest numbers since his rookie season so far this year. Mixon is averaging just 60.4 yards per game and has found the end zone just once this season despite having 15 or more touches in every contest. Helping to keep Mixon near the RB1 ranks is his involvement in the passing game as he is just 28 targets away from his career high through just five games. The Saints have struggled to contain RBs this season, surrendering 136 total yards and one TD to Cordarrelle Patterson, 115 total yards to Christian McCaffrey, and 142 yards and one TD to the duo of Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker last week. Look for Mixon to remain a highly involved part of Cincinnati’s offense and produce RB1 numbers for fantasy managers this week.
Samaje Perine has just as many total TDs as Mixon but is lightly used in the offense as he typically only pays on about 25% of the team’s offensive snaps. Perine has more value to the Bengals than to fantasy managers, but he has shown in limited work that he could be a fantasy-relevant asset if something were to happen to Mixon. Fantasy managers can’t start Perine as long as Mixon is healthy, but he does make a good handcuff or high-value bench stash.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Start, WR2), Tyler Boyd (Sit), Mike Thomas (Sit), Hayden Hurst (Start, low-end TE1)
It’s been a bit of a disappointing start for fantasy managers who used an early draft pick on Ja’Marr Chase as the second-year man has struggled to match the sky-high expectations set during his award-winning rookie season. Part of the reason for Chase’s lower-than-expected output has to do with Cincinnati’s playcalling this season, which has dialed back the deep shots with which Chase did so well in 2021. This is evidenced by Chase’s ADOT which has decreased from 12.6 yards last year to 8.5 this year. Chase has been more involved in the offense so far this season with an average of 10 targets per game this year compared to 7.5 last season but the big plays just haven’t been there. New Orleans has given up 100+ receiving yards to one player in the past two weeks and, as mentioned above, Lattimore is questionable as of this writing. You drafted him to start every week, and this week should be no different. Expect low-end WR1 production from Chase this week.
Raise your hand if you started Tee Higgins last week under the assumption he was going to play only to get a big, fat zero next to his name in your fantasy league. Yeah, me too. After 10 early-game snaps, Higgins didn’t play at all, but according to HC Zac Taylor, “Situationally, he could have been an option.” So, keep a close eye on news coming out of Cincinnati this week about Higgins’s practice availability and status heading into this week’s game. If he’s able to practice fully on Thursday and/or Friday, he could return WR2 numbers for your fantasy team. If he’s limited in practice late in the week and dubbed “questionable” for the game, I’d tread carefully.
Despite Higgins missing most of the game and playing 97% of the snaps last week, Tyler Boyd struggled again to do much for fantasy managers. Boyd only saw four targets on 37 routes, catching three for 32 yards, and doesn’t do enough after the catch to consistently turn in good fantasy performances. Boyd’s ADOT has been the highest of his career (9.8 yards) but he doesn’t break many tackles (two on the season) and has only eclipsed 25 yards after the catch once (Week 3). Even if Higgins is ruled out this week, fantasy managers can’t trust Boyd to see enough volume to start him. Keep Boyd on your fantasy bench in Week 6.
If Higgins is ruled out, the biggest beneficiary will be Mike Thomas but even then his upside is not that great. Despite seeing 45 snaps last week, and running 28 routes, Burrow only looked Thomas’s way three times on the day and Thomas converted just one for 33 yards. Perhaps the coaching staff will work Thomas more with the first team this week in the event Higgins can’t get healthy enough to play, but I still don’t think that will be enough for Thomas to crack any fantasy lineups. Keep Thomas on the bench this week.
Hayden Hurst is in the midst of his most productive season and has become a key component of Cincinnati’s offense in the last two weeks. Hurst has seen 11 targets over the past two games and has rewarded Burrow for his trust with nine receptions for 80 yards and two TDs over that span. New Orleans has defended the TE position well this season as they have yet to surrender 50 yards in a game to one and have kept all out of the end zone through five games. Despite the matchup, Hurst’s increased role recently should give fantasy managers some optimism heading into the game and I think Hurst can continue to return low-end TE1 numbers this week. Fantasy managers with Hurst on their roster may have better options, but don’t be afraid to roll the dice on Hurst again this week if you don’t.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Jameis Winston (OUT? / Sit), Andy Dalton (Sit)
As of this writing, it is uncertain who will start the game under center for the Saints, but neither option is very enticing this week. Jameis Winston has missed the last two games with back and ankle injuries, giving Andy Dalton the start those two weeks. Winston continues to struggle with decision-making, tossing five INTs to just four TDs this season while Dalton has been more efficient but has been asked to do less, seeing 10 fewer attempts per game than Winston. Additionally, the Saints probably don’t know who will be lining up at WR this week right now, but more on that later. Cincinnati has been VERY good against the pass this season, leading the NFL in completion percentage (57.4%), sixth in yards per attempt (5.4), and tied for third in passing TDs allowed (4). It’s a bad matchup for either Winston or Dalton and I would recommend fantasy managers look elsewhere for help at the QB position this week.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Mark Ingram (Sit, possible low-end FLEX)
It was the return of the Alvin Kamara fantasy managers have come to know and love last week as he totaled 194 yards on 29 touches. Some of the increased usage probably stemmed from the banged-up WR corps, but it was nice to see nonetheless. Kamara has been in and out of the Saints’ lineup this season, missing Weeks 2 and 4 and struggling to produce in Weeks 1 and 3 totaling 119 yards. Kamara has yet to find the end zone this season, but maybe last week was a turning point. Cincinnati has shown a bit of a weakness against RBs who have a prominent role in the passing game as they have allowed 50+ receiving yards to both Tony Pollard and Breece Hall and receiving TDs to Najee Harris and Chase Edmonds. There are still questions surrounding the WRs for New Orleans and Kamara could see another high-volume day as a result. Expect low-end RB1 numbers from Kamara this week.
Even with Kamara missing two weeks this season, New Orleans seems content to limit Mark Ingram to around 25 snaps per game which severely caps his upside for fantasy managers. Ingram has been more successful than Kamara when it comes to TDs with two on the season, but he’s yet to eclipse 60 yards in any game. If Kamara is utilized this week like he was last week, it’s hard to envision Ingram producing enough to warrant serious fantasy consideration. That being said, with BYE weeks starting this week and injuries across the fantasy landscape, I can see Ingram as an emergency option as a FLEX this week. Don’t expect much more than low-end RB3 production, however, unless something happens to Kamara.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Thomas (Start, WR2), Chris Olave (OUT? / Start, WR2), Jarvis Landry (OUT? / Sit), Marquez Callaway (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Sit), Taysom Hill (Sit, TE1 upside)
What is the deal with NFC South WRs and injuries this season? Back in Week 3, Tampa Bay was without their top three WRs and now New Orleans is dealing with injury situations surrounding their top three WRs. Let’s start with the most likely to play this week: Michael Thomas. Thomas has missed the past two weeks with a toe injury and it’s uncertain just how severe the injury is. Recent reports indicate Thomas should play this week and would likely see a high volume of targets given the uncertainty of the other WRs. Thomas is producing yardage at the lowest clip of his career (10.7 yards per reception) but has salvaged a couple of fantasy with three TDs on the season. I suspect Thomas will see enough volume to get him to WR2 territory this week and he is a strong starting option for fantasy managers. I’d advise you to keep an eye on his practice status this week, but if he practices he should be a go for the game.
There was some optimism surrounding Jarvis Landry last week as he worked through an ankle injury but he was ruled out late in the week. HC Dennis Allen indicated Landry “wasn’t quite ready” which indicates to me he was close and should be good for this week barring any setbacks. Landry is seeing career lows in receptions per game (3.8) and yards per game (42.0) and is becoming the fourth option in the passing game when everybody is healthy. Landry is hard to trust right now for fantasy managers given his low volume and diminished output, and I expect that to continue even if he is fully healthy this week. I’d advise looking elsewhere for help at the WR position this week.
The injured WR that’s hardest to project playing time for is rookie Chris Olave. Olave suffered a concussion late in last week’s win over Seattle and the league’s new concussion protocol makes it tough to determine if he’ll be able to play this week. If I had to guess today, I’d say Olave misses this week’s game, but if he’s cleared, he’s got the skill set to take advantage of Cincinnati’s struggles against similar WRs (Noah Brown 5-91-1, Garrett Wilson 6-60, Tyreek Hill 10-160) as he has become an integral part of the offense. It might be a high-risk start, but I think Olave can return WR2 value if he’s cleared to play this week. If you start him, be aware he could see limited action returning from a head injury, so tread cautiously.
The biggest beneficiary of the injuries to the WRs has been Marquez Callaway as he’s seen 58 and 56 snaps in the last two weeks. Callaway hasn’t done much with the increased opportunities (five receptions for 58 yards), so even if one or more of the WRs listed above him here are ruled out I don’t know if he provides enough upside to warrant strong fantasy consideration. Unless your team has just been ravaged by injuries, keep Callaway on your bench in Week 6.
While Adam Trautman has seen more snaps than Juwan Johnson over the past two weeks, it’s the latter that fantasy managers are more concerned with. Johnson has become the primary receiving TE for New Orleans, running a route on 88.4% of his snaps compared to 59.3% for Trautman. Despite the more fantasy-relevant role, Johnson just isn’t involved in the passing game enough to be trusted by fantasy managers. Johnson has only seven targets combined over the last three games and only has four receptions for 46 yards over that time. Fantasy managers should pass on Johnson as a starting option this week, perhaps for his teammate.
I wrote about the Saints back in Week 3 and I still don’t know how to confidently recommend Taysom Hill. Normally it’s easy to pass on a guy who sees no more than 30% of the team’s offensive snaps but Hill is a unique case. If he’s on the field, there is a 50% chance he touches the ball but not as a TE (he has one target and one reception on the season). Hill has scored a rushing TD in three of his four games and accounted for four scores last week (three rushing, one passing). So, I’m going to defer to a friend of mine when talking about Hill on Tuesday. He said, “If my TE is going to score zero points (Tyler Conklin in his case), I might as well start Hill knowing I might get zero but I might get 40.” Hill is probably somewhere around TE20 rest of season, but he has week-winning upside every week. If you have a questionable producer at TE, Hill might be an option for you but I understand he’s not an option for everybody. Hill is too volatile for me to trust in my lineup, so I recommend sitting him this week, but I can see the appeal of starting him as well.