Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th, 2022, 4:05 or 5:30 pm Est
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Betting Odds: ARI -3, 50.5 o/u total via oddsshark.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL on Twitter)
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (Start, QB1)
We haven’t quite seen the Kyler Murray breakout week yet this year, as Murray has topped out at 27 fantasy points and a QB7 finish through five weeks. But he’s been a top-12 option in four of five weeks, and this matchup against Seattle is one that should produce fireworks. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most points to the position despite playing Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton so far this season. In a game with one of the highest over/under point totals of the week, and as three-point favorites, Murray is an easy QB1, with upside for QB1 overall.
Running Backs
James Conner (OUT), Eno Benjamin (Start, RB2), Keaontay Ingram (Sit)
*James Conner and Darrel Williams have been ruled out for Sunday, Eno Benjamin is a clear RB2*
James Conner did not practice Wednesday with an injury to his ribs, and Kliff Kingsbury called him “day to day” and implied that he could play with minimal practice this week. Fellow running back Darrel Williams is already out with a sprained knee, and he could be out for weeks with the injury. Even special teamer Jonathan Ward has a hamstring injury. That leaves Eno Benjamin, Keaontay Ingram, and maybe recent practice squad addition Ty’Son Wiliams (yes, that Ty’Son) as potential options for Sunday.
Before we break down the individual players, let’s look at the matchup in front of us. Seattle’s defense is one of the premier matchups in the league for opposing rushers. They have allowed the 4th most points to running backs on the season, including 5.0 yards per rush, and have allowed the third most receiving yards to the position as well. This season alone they have given up an 11-reception game to Javonte Williams, a 141-yard rushing day to Cordarrelle Patterson, 108 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Jamaal Wiliams, and 194 total yards to Alvin Kamara. So we want to start Cardinals running backs this week if we can.
Conner is a start if active, and with any kind of positive injury report, he’s a mid-range RB2. Sure Conner has been disappointing this year, but he has had three weeks with 60% or more of the snaps, has seen his touches range between 9 and 18 in each game, and draws a dream matchup against Seattle. Don’t overthink it if he is active.
The tougher question is what to do with Benjamin. With limited snaps, Benjamin’s 8% target share is just behind Conner’s 9% for the season, so he is involved in the passing game. And last week Benjamin played 54% of the snaps with a 10% target share as Conner missed time with a rib injury. But even more importantly, all of his competition backing up Conner has cleared out with injuries as well. Benjamin is firmly in the RB2 range if Conner misses, and depending on the injury report would range from a low-end RB2 to a flex play even with Conner active.
Ingram is an interesting rookie that would have more appeal if Conner were out for the long term, but for a one-week fill-in, you can find better options.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR1), Rondale Moore (Start, WR3), Zach Ertz (Start, TE1), A.J. Green (Sit), Greg Dortch (Sit)
Seattle’s defense has given up such a huge amount of points to opposing running backs and tight ends that the fantasy points allowed to wide receivers appear to be low; in fact, only three defenses have given up fewer points to wide receivers. However, Seattle has given up the ninth-most yards per reception to receivers this season, so this feels like a small sample-size fluke. They haven’t exactly faced a prolific receiving corps through five weeks, so I expect that to change in Week 6.
Marquise Brown seems to draw quite a bit of skepticism from the fantasy community, but he generally produces despite the low expectations. Brown has an excellent 27% target share on the year, has been a WR1 in each of the past three weeks, and has seen double-digit targets in each of the past four games. You can start him with confidence in this expected shootout.
Things are looking up for Rondale Moore, who has supplanted Greg Dortch quickly after returning from injury. Moore ran 41 of 45 possible routes last week while commanding 8 targets along the way. He ranks 33rd among receivers in OPPO per game, and his aDOT is up at 6.9, a high number for Moore compared to last season. In a game with the second-best implied total of the week and against a Seattle defense allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt, by far the highest in the NFL, Moore makes a solid WR3 option this week.
The previously mentioned Greg Dortch ran only two routes last week and can be sent back to waivers. And while A.J. Green played 73% of the snaps last week and drew a 13% target share, the 34-year-old has yet to top 20 receiving yards this season and can be left on waivers as well.
Finally, Zach Ertz faces a Seattle defense that has allowed the most points to opposing tight ends by a large margin, although much of that can be attributed to that wild Taysom Hill performance last week. Still, this is a defense that also allowed 179 yards and 2 touchdowns to T.J. Hockenson, and Ertz has caught six or more passes in each of the past four games. He’s a top-five tight end in this excellent matchup.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (Start, QB1)
Geno Smith is the QB7 in fantasy points per game on the season, just let that sink in. And it hasn’t been fluky at all! Smith leads the league in completion percentage, ranks 8th in deep ball attempts, 5th in deep ball completion percentage, and 4th in passing EPA. He enters this matchup against a Cardinals defense allowing the 8th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and with a decent run defense the Cardinals should encourage the Seahawks to put the ball in the air. With a 51-point over/under (2nd-highest on the week), this looks like a shootout, making Smith a clear top-12 option at the position. Welcome to 2022, it’s been a wild year.
Running Backs
Ken Walker III (Start, RB2), DeeJay Dallas (Sit)
Rashaad Penny is out for the year, so welcome to Ken Walker III season. Walker introduced himself to the world last week by ripping off a 69-yard touchdown against a sturdy Saints defense, and now gets the backfield relatively to himself with both Penny and third-down back Travis Homer on IR. We don’t really know how much passing game work Walker will see, as he had a middling 5.4% target share in college and is still a rookie in his first start as a pro. The Cardinals have been relatively good at limiting opposing running backs, holding some solid players (CMC, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, CEH) in check on the ground. But Walker seems likely to see in the neighborhood of a 60% snap share, has the pedigree of an early second-round draft pick with a 96th percentile speed score, and is the lead back in what is a shockingly explosive offense. Walker is a clear RB2 with RB1 upside if Seattle can play with the lead.
I’d love to say DeeJay Dallas can be a flex play as the pass-catching option in this offense (I have him in quite a few dynasty leagues with deep rosters), and maybe he can carve out a role here. But Dallas has played behind all of Penny, Walker, and Homer this year, and has just a 2% target share in his limited reps. I’ll need to see it before I trust it with Dallas, though the opportunity for playing time is certainly here.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR2), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR2), Will Dissly (Sit), Noah Fant (Sit)
How could you even consider sitting a top wide receiver in a Geno Smith offense?! Smith has continued the Seattle tradition of funneling targets to his bread-and-butter options in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and neither has really missed a beat. Metcalf is sporting a 28% target share through five games and Lockett is right behind him at 26%; the next-best Seattle wide receiver comes in at 5%. If you’re looking to knock either player, Metcalf has seen just 2 targets inside the ten-yard line and Lockett has seen just one, but that doesn’t matter when you can score from anywhere on the field as these explosive playmakers can, and each has scored a pair of touchdowns as a result. While there is probably some regression headed for this offense eventually, both are high-end WR2s in this matchup with shootout potential, and we should ride this wave until it crests.
The tight end position is a different story, however, and I am leaving both Will Dissly and Noah Fant on my bench. Both have just a 10% target share on the season and are playing fewer than 65% of the snaps, Dissly has yet to see a target from within the ten-yard line while Fant has seen just two, and both are behind Metcalf, Lockett, and the running game in the pecking order for the Seahawks. While Dissly does have three touchdowns on the season, it’s hard for me to bank on him scoring from ten or more yards away consistently, so until one of these options takes over more of a primary role, I’m leaving both on waivers.