Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th, 2022, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Opa Locka, Florida
Betting Odds: MIA +3, 45 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB1)
Kirk Cousins hasn’t been the greatest quarterback so far with just seven touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. It’s a far cry from what fantasy managers were expecting from the guy who has Justin Jefferson to throw the ball to. This week, Kirk gets the Miami Dolphins, who are giving up the second most points to quarterbacks. They don’t have any cornerback rating over 70 on PFF.com. Given that Cousins is completing 66% of his passes and the quality of this matchup, I believe Cousins is a must-start and will easily be in the QB1 range.
Dalvin Cook (Start, RB1), Alexander Mattison (Sit, FLEX)
So much for Dalvin Cook‘s shoulder injury giving the backfield to Alexander Mattison. In Week 5, Cook did play with a brace on his shoulder but still had the best performance of the year, rushing all over the Bears defense for 94 yards and two TDs. He now gets the Dolphins who are 12th in points allowed to the running backs at 24.14. It’s a great sign for Cook managers who are counting on him to carry their fantasy teams, and I expect him to be an RB1 again. Mattison did have some bright spots in Week 5. He did see his snap share grow from the mid-30s% to 43%. He also saw a season-high nine carries, though he wasn’t efficient on those carries only gaining 2.11 yards per carry. If you are a Mattison holder, you were probably also happy that he got four targets compared to Cook who only saw two. This could mean there is a shift to give Mattison more work as they look to save Cook for later in the year. I think Mattison will be in FLEX range this week, which he has been for the past three weeks. Despite that, I’m not super confident in starting him though, making him a Sit.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Adam Thielen (Start, WR3), K.J. Osborn (Sit), Irv Smith (Sit, TE2)
Let’s face it, you are starting Justin Jefferson every week. In case you need some reassurance, he has gotten double-digit targets every game except one. He has been over 100 yards three times. He is a WR1, full stop. Adam Thielen is the real question mark. He is averaging seven targets per game. The Dolphin’s defense has given up the 10th most points to the wide receiver position at 37.04. It’s also a matchup that I like for Thielen as he should see coverage from either Nik Needham when he is out wide or Noah Igbinoghene from the slot. Per PFF, Needham rates at 63.1 in coverage while Igbinoghene comes in at 42.9. With those corners, I think Thielen can easily be a WR3 with some upside. After Jefferson and Thielen there isn’t much. K.J. Osborn is the one playing in most three-wideout sets. He has run 171 routes on the season, compared to the main two at 206. He only has 21 targets on the season and only has been a WR2 once, which was the week he scored a TD, and FLEX plays one other week. Other than that he has been a Sit. I don’t think you can trust him even with the good matchup.
Irv Smith comes into Week 6 having run 125 routes while playing on only 535 of the team’s snaps. That snap number has increased each week and in the past two, he has played over 60%. He is touchdown-dependent given he only has 25 targets on the season. He only has two red zone targets and one touchdown on the year. Even with the matchup against the team giving up the 11th most points to tight ends with 13.48, I don’t think Smith can be counted on. He could score, but counting on him with more solid tight ends likely available on the waivers would be a huge risk. Sit him this week.
Skylar Thompson (Sit)
Do you like starting rookie quarterbacks? Maybe if they are first-round picks or maybe a second-rounder. Not a seventh-rounder. Skylar Thompson has been thrust into the starting role because both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in concussion protocol. In Week 5, he had 33 passing attempts but only completed 19 of them for 166 yards with an interception. It’s not fair to judge him based on not having prepared to start a game plan put in place for his skill set. Do I think this week will be better? Yes. Do I think he will be in the QB1 range? No, not at all. QB2? Probably not. He does have good weapons and faces a middle-of-the-road defense giving up 16.79 fantasy points to the QB position (14th overall). If you have to count on Skylar this week, you must be very very desperate.
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), Chase Edmonds (Sit), Myles Gaskin (Sit, FLEX)
We all knew coming into the season that the Dolphins’ backfield was going to be a mess. We forgot that over the past few weeks as Raheem Mostert slowly took over after Chase Edmonds was the man to have in Week 1. What isn’t great is that Week 5 saw the resurgence of Myles Gaskin. The snap share breakdown was
Mostert is still the man to have in this backfield. He out-carried the other RBs with 18, compared to one for Edmonds and four for Gaskin. Mostert should still be considered a solid RB2. He faces the team giving up the 10th most fantasy points to running backs. If I had to pick another running back to hold as a flyer at this point it would be Gaskin. He saw five targets, which led the running backs, and I believe he is in the low-end FLEX range. Edmonds looks to be the odd man out right now, and if he doesn’t see more opportunities this week, he will probably be droppable.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR2), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR3), Mike Gesicki (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
Tyreek Hill is good, in case you didn’t know that. He saw seven targets in Week 5 with Thompson at quarterback and caught all of them. What’s even better is that he only played on 64% of the team’s snaps — he was even out-snapped by Trent Sherfield. That does not mean you should be starting Sherfield. The player who played the most snaps was Jaylen Waddle at 76% of the snaps. He led the team in routes run with 30 but only saw three targets which is a season-low. This comes after a week where he only saw five. The matchup for the Dolphins receivers is just okay this week. The Vikings are giving up only 31.88 points to wide receivers, putting them at 19th overall. The Dolphins have Cameron Dantzler who PFF.com rates at 76.2 in coverage, which is good enough to be 13th out of 104 cornerbacks. He can only cover one of them and will probably be on Hill more than Waddle. Overall, I think Waddle is a solid WR3 this week. Along with Sherfield, I don’t want any part of Cedrick Wilson or River Cracraft.
The tight end position is so frustrating. Mike Gesicki is very talented but hasn’t been used in this new system. Durham Smythe has 7 targets and Gesicki has 12. What you want to see for a tight end is targets around, if not above, 20 on the season. The Vikings are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends at 13.48. Smythe is out-snapping Gesicki on the year but is now dealing with an injury and is questionable for Week 6. Even if he was healthy, it wouldn’t matter. The low volume for both him and Gesicki is enough to bench both, if not think about dropping.