Kickoff: Sunday, October 16th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: BUF -2.5 , 54 Total on Oddsshark
Writer: Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen is the complete package at the quarterback position, with 16 total touchdowns (14 passing, 2 rushing). The Chiefs have been a mess on defense, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (21.0) to quarterbacks. Kansas City has allowed the most passing (12) and sixth most passing yards (1,387). Allen has been very successful with the deep ball this year, with the third-highest completion percentage (56.5) and seventh-most attempts (23). Allen also has the most completed passes of 40 or more yards. Allen will take his chances in this game, and the Chiefs have been vulnerable in their secondary. If you didn’t already know, then let me confirm it for you, Allen is a QB1 this week.
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), James Cook (Sit)
Devin Singletary saw his lowest snap share (49.1%) last week in a blowout win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the season, Singletary has only pulled out two RB2 weeks this year. This is the week for him to get right; the Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (350) to fantasy running backs. Singletary has 145 receiving yards this year and has had his best showings when he’s heavily targeted. I expect Singletary to be very involved this week and a startable player to the tune of an RB2 week. James Cook looked good scoring his first career touchdown last week, but it was in relief of Singletary who was pulled in the blowout victory. Cook is looking better, but it is still not an option this week.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR2), Isaiah McKenzie (Start, Low-End Flex), Khalil Shakir (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit), Quintin Morris (Sit)
Stefon Diggs had eight receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now Diggs will play in a game that will need more big-time plays. The Chiefs have given up the eighth-most fantasy point to receivers (24.9) and the third-most touchdowns (7). Diggs has been a top-10 receiver in three of the first five weeks, and you’re not sitting him this week. Gabe Davis went nuclear last week, catching three passes for 171 and two touchdowns. Davis is the deep threat on this team after taking the top off the defense for a 98-yard TD and a 58-yard TD. Davis is boom or bust, but I expect him to trend more toward the boom this week and start him as a WR2.
Isaiah McKenzie has cleared concussion protocols and should resume his role as the primary slot receiver. McKenzie has had a WR1 week this year, and while I’m not calling for that this week, I feel like he can be flexed against the soft Chiefs secondary. Khalil Shakir shouldn’t be started in this game due to McKenzie returning to his role as the slot receiver. Dawson Knox logged a limited practice on Wednesday, which means he might be a game-time decision this week. Regardless I want no part of him or Quintin Morris this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Pat Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Pat Mahomes has only been outside of the QB1 category once this year ( Week 2, QB13). Mahomes has been hyper-efficient this year, throwing 15 touchdowns (most in the NFL) to 2 interceptions. This year Mahomes has the most red zone attempts, with a 66% completion rate in the red zone. Mahomes has already beaten up a top defense (Buccaneers) this year to the tune of 249 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Bills have the second-best team against fantasy quarterbacks this year, only allowing 9 points a game. I think the Bills will give Mahomes some trouble, but if last year in the Divisional Round shows anything, we learned that Mahomes can be on against any defense. Start him up and expect a fantasy bonanza this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB2), Jerick McKinnon (Sit), Isiah Pacheco (Sit)
Last week was the first time this year that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was outside of the RB2 ranks. The Chiefs have utilized CEH well this year in the receiving game, as he already has a career-high three receiving touchdowns in 2022 and is on pace for career-highs in receptions and receiving yards. As a rusher, CEH has rushed for 4.5 ypc and has averaged a 45% snap share across the first five games. Although the Bills have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs (14.3).
Jerick McKinnon is an interesting piece on this offense, coming off his best game, collecting 53 rushing yards on eight carries. McKinnon has nine red-zone touches and three goal-line carries so far in 2022. He’s a sit this week but possibly a start in the future if this running back room flips. Isiah Pacheco was non-existent last week with one carry. He stays on the bench until he carves out a more consistent role on this offense.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
JuJu Smith Schuster (Start, High-End Flex), Marquez Valdes Scantling (Start, High-End Flex), Mecole Hardman (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
Travis Kelce caught seven of eight targets for 25 yards and four touchdowns. Kelce was targeted five times in the red zone and scored on all but one target. He’s an unquestioned start. JuJu Smith-Schuster has eight targets in four of five games, and his best outing so far has been WR35. Smith-Schuster was targeted five times in the red zone and looked like he could’ve scored more than once. I expect this to be his best week, and Mahomes will find a way to make JuJu a high-end flex.
Marquez Valdes Scantling looked good against the Raiders, posting six receptions and 90 yards while playing a season-high 81% of snaps. Mahomes misses Tyreek Hill‘s ability to take the top off of defenses, I expect this isn’t a one-week thing, and Mahomes goes back to MVS this week. Start him as a high-end flex. Mecole Hardman had his highest receiving yard output (73) but played his fewest snaps of the season (40). I expect Hardman to be a sit this week.