Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, High-QB2)
Last week was tough for Wilson managers. Russell Wilson cooked up 9.16 points last week on Thursday Night Football, and that wasn’t even his lowest this season (Week 3 vs SF 9.06). Sandwiched in between his two single-digit games, he dropped his season-best 27.48 while facing divisional rival Raiders in Las Vegas. This week he faces the division rival Chargers in LA, notice a similarity? (they’re both road games against divisional rivals).
The Chargers are allowing 20 points per game to signal-callers. If you didn’t drop Wilson after last week’s game I think he’s worth the start here. It’s a good matchup and the Broncos need to win games to take the heat off.
As for his injury, I’m in the camp that it was more of a reactionary announcement after a tough loss on national television. Reading all the latest reports, it sounds like it should have no impact on Wilson on Monday night.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (High-RB2), Mike Boone (Sit, Low-Flex), Latavius Murray (Sit)
Melvin Gordon put up 13.3 points in his first start last week. This week he has a revenge game against his former team, and that former team happens to give a league-worst 24.6 ppg to RBs. Though Gordon will likely split carries with Mike Boone, he gets a majority of the snaps (56% snap count vs 41% snap count) and almost double the opportunities (18 to 10). Gordon has had fumble issues this year (four fumbles, two lost), but the Chargers have only forced four fumbles this season while recovering zero of them. I like Gordon as a higher-end RB2.
Mike Boone had 11.5 points last week. He caught all three of his targets for 47 yards and rushed seven times for 38 yards. I don’t expect this much production again this week and have him closer to a flex play.
Latavius Murray was inactive last week, and he should be inactive for your fantasy team this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, High-WR2), Jerry Jeudy (Start, High-WR3), K.J. Halmer (Sit), Albert Okwuegbunam (Sit)
Even with Russell Wilson’s woes, Courtland Sutton has been putting up consistent numbers. His 46 targets are the tenth most in the league and the Chargers give up 23.4 ppg to WRs. I expect Sutton to have a key role in this division matchup.
Jerry Jeudy is coming off a season-high eight targets last week, though he only managed to bring in three of them. Unfortunately, targets haven’t always meant results for Jeudy. In Week 3 against SF, Jeudy had six targets but only brought in two for 6.7 points. Jeudy should continue to be targeted often, but his failure to produce consistent points leaves him in WR3 range.
Do not roster K.J. Hamler. Albert Okwuegbunam had 8.3 points in Week 1, since then he has 3.7 combined. Big O should be off your team in all but deeper leagues.
Here’s a fun stat, the Broncos have allowed an average of 11 ppg to opposing QBs this season, good for third-fewest in the league. I think this is more about who they faced than who they are. After allowing 20 points to Geno Smith in Week 1, the Broncos have faced the Texans (allowed 8 points to QB), 49ers (10), Raiders (11), and Colts (6).
Enough about the Broncos’ defense. Justin Herbert is QB10 on the year. He’s been without his number 1 option Keenan Allen all year, and that trend could continue this week. Still, Herbert should be started with confidence in just about all circumstances this week. This is a key divisional matchup between these two teams and I expect the Chargers to come out swinging.