Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 30th, 2022, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans Louisiana
Betting Odds: No +2, 48.5o/u total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB1)
Derek Carr is enjoying a very solid season in Vegas with the addition of Davante Adams. He has nine touchdowns on the season and completes 63.5% of his passes. He is currently 14th overall in passing yards but is short one game due to having a bye in Week 5. He now gets the Saints’ defense which has not been great: Their highest-rated cornerback according to PFF.com is Aiontae Taylor (63.1) who has only played 46 coverage snaps in two games. The corners playing the majority of the snaps are all rated under 56. They do have safety Tyrann Mathieu who rates at 76.9 in coverage but he can’t be everywhere on the field. As a result, this is a matchup I like for Carr. He doesn’t have a ton of volume due to the running game being very good so far this season but I think you can start him as a QB1.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1)
Josh Jacobs is playing for a contract this offseason and he is making a case that he should be the most sought-after free agent RB. He has scored in the past three games and is playing on over 80% of the Raiders’ snaps, keeping all the other running back for the Raiders pretty much on the bench and waivers. Jacobs gets the Saints who are giving up the tenth fewest points to running backs according to fantasydata.com. It’s not a great matchup but Jacobs has been so involved that you can’t bench him. I’m still viewing him as an RB2 with an RB1 upside. Getting over 20 carries the past 3 weeks and seeing a decent amount of targets makes his opportunities something you want in your lineup. Both Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah are not playing enough snaps to be considered right now. White would probably be the handcuff to hold if Jacobs were to go down.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Hunter Renfrow (Start, FLEX), Mack Hollins (Sit, FLEX), Darren Waller (Sit)
The fear that Davante Adams would not be the same player leaving Green Bay and the Packers for the Raiders is fully put to bed. Adams is playing almost all the snaps in Las Vegas, averaging 10.5 targets per game, and being the focal point of the offense. He has scored in four of his six games. He is facing the Saints who are giving up the fifth most points to wide receivers at 38.64. It’s a matchup that has Adams owners salivating, and you start him every week as a WR1.
After Adams, it’s Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins. Hollins is a touchdown-dependent play who despite playing on the majority of the snaps is seeing under 5 targets in the past three games. He ran 27 routes in Week 7 but only got three targets. Compare that to Renfrow who ran 20 routes and also got three targets but played on only 57% of the team’s snaps. Given the matchup, I would rather start Renfrow as a FLEX over Hollins.
The tight end has been a rough position for the Raiders all season. Darren Waller has been banged up and missed last week with a hamstring injury even after getting the BYE-week rest. Foster Moreau started and played on 96% of the team’s snaps and saw five targets. New Orleans has been very good against the tight end giving up the second-fewest points at 6.61. I’m sitting both this week given the matchup and injuries.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Jameis Winston (Sit, QB2 if he starts), Andy Dalton (Start, QB2 if he starts)
Who starts for the Saints in Week 8 remains to be seen. What I do know is that the Raiders are giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and that is a great matchup for whomever the starter is. Andy Dalton has started the past four games and has been just so-so. In his first two games, he was outside the QB2 range. He threw for four touchdowns in Week 7 but also three interceptions. It could be a sign that Jameis Winston will make his return in Week 8. Winston played well to begin the season before his injury and I worry about the broken bones in his back getting reinjured. If it ends up being Dalton again, I would start him a QB2. The fact they didn’t pull him after the disastrous performance shows me they will stick with him the whole game. If it’s Winston I would sit him as a QB2 due to the rust and lagging injuries.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Mark Ingram (Sit)
Despite all the quarterback turmoil and tight ends playing every position but a tight end, Alvin Kamara has quietly been a good if not great running back over the past three games. He has been an RB1 twice and a high-end RB2 once. That comes without him reaching the end zone at all. Kamara goes up against the Raiders who are giving up the ninth most fantasy points to running backs at 23.78. He has used his ability in the passing game to bolster his production. He has seen target counts of six, nine, and nine over the past three games and has caught at least 6 of them in every game. In PPR leagues, he is a solid RB1 every week when he is healthy. The looming possible suspension might scare off some owners but if you have him, you can ride that production until we get some clarity. He is an RB1 this week and most weeks until something changes.
Outside of Kamara, it is veteran Mark Ingram. He doesn’t have much value while Kamara is healthy. He is playing well under 50% of the team’s snaps. He only has two red zone opportunities in the past three weeks compared to Kamara’s 11. Ingram has plenty of years of experience being a 12-year vet but at this point is only a chance of pace back with no real fantasy upside. I don’t even think he is worth rostering as a backup due to Taysom Hill getting rushing work, making him a sit.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Thomas (Sit), Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Jarvis Landry (Sit), Marquez Callaway (Sit, FLEX), Taysom Hill (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Sit, TE2)
The receiving corps for the Saints is not what they were expecting heading into this season but that could be said for much of the offense. Rookie Chris Olave has stood out as the top dog on the team and is probably in the running for rookie of the year. Olave is averaging just over 9 targets a game, 8.84 yards per target, and 15.47 yards per catch. He is the home run hitter for the offense and has been the focal point with the other injuries around him. He has only one game under 50 yards and that was the first game of the season. If Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) miss this game, you can expect Olave to be a high-end WR2. Even if both those guys come back, I still expect Olave to get his. He has proven himself and seems to be QB and wideout depth-proof.
The Raiders are giving up the 11th most points to wide receivers at 35.86, making it an above average matchup. The issue for fantasy managers is trying to decide which one will have the best day. Rashid Shaheed scored for the second straight week, but he is only playing on under 15% of the team’s snaps. Marquez Callaway is playing over 70% of the team’s snaps and is getting plenty of targets, 13 over the past two games, but has only caught five of them for a combined 56 yards. He did run 41 routes in Week 7 which was tied for second on the team. He barely cracked the FLEX range in Week 6 and wasn’t impressive inWeek 7. Tre’Quan Smith ran 33 routes in last week (4th) and 26 in Week 6 (3rd) but is playing under 75% of the team’s snaps and in week seven barely played 60% of them. He did score in Week 6 and combined that with 43 yards on three catches. In Week 7 he caught five balls for 59 yards which put him just inside the WR3 range. If I had to pick one of them, I would go with Callaway due to his high routes-run and snap%. He is a solid FLEX play this week given the matchup. Smith and Shaheed are both sits for me even though one of them can easily score on any given week.
The tight end position for the Saints might be the most talked about position group in the NFL. A lot of that has to do with Taysom Hill. Hill has been a back-and-forth boom/bust player who excites fans when he scores and lets you down when he doesn’t. He is the only player who is a legit threat to score by rushing, receiving, and passing every week. He is playing on under 30% of snaps and his opportunities have been low. He was game-scripted out last week when the Saints were down so he seems very gimmicky in his usage. That is not someone I want to count on for fantasy. I have him as a sit but if you need someone to just explode on your roster he might be someone you put in. Juwan Johnson is coming off the best game of his career catching all five of his targets for 32 yards and two touchdowns. It was the second week in a row that he has played over 75% of the team’s snaps thanks to Adam Trautman being out with an ankle injury. I don’t think you can count on Johnson to be anything more than a mid-TE2. You can start him if you are desperate.