Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 27 at 8:15 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Betting Odds: TB+1.5, 45 Total on Oddshark
Network: AMZN
Writer: Drew DeLuca (@DrewDeLaware on Twitter)
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Just three weeks ago, Lamar Jackson was averaging six more passing attempts and nearly 50 more passing yards above his career average. Things change quickly in the NFL, as the Heisman Trophy winner attempted only 16 passes in Week 7. We expect that number to rise in Week 8, if only because the Buccaneers are tougher than most to run on. Unfortunately, Jackson’s top two weapons will be slowed by injuries, if they’re even able to suit up at all.
We’re not starting Lamar for his arm this week. Instead, we expect another impressive ground performance, as Jackson should post his seventh consecutive game with 50 or more rushing yards. I’m not projecting Jackson to finish as the overall QB1 as I did in previous weeks this season, but he should conservatively offer mid-level QB1 production despite less-than-ideal circumstances.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (Start, FLEX), Kenyan Drake (Sit), Justice Hill (Sit), Mike Davis (Sit), Patrick Ricard (Sit)
In his first NFL game in over a year, Gus Edwards burst back onto the scene last week with a pair of touchdowns. His 66 yards on 16 carries far surpassed the production of Kenyan Drake, who managed a measly five yards on 11 carries and failed to catch his only target. Justice Hill (5/26/0) didn’t do himself any favors by coughing up a fumble, so we expect the Ravens to continue riding the “Gus Bus” for as long as J.K. Dobbins (knee) remains sidelined.
However, the Buccaneers’ vaunted run defense is nothing to be trifled with: only five teams have been stingier to opposing fantasy running backs. We’re tempering expectations for Edwards, but given the dearth of productive running backs, we’re comfortable recommending the former Rutgers Scarlet Knight as a steady flex option. We don’t expect much from Drake, Hill, journeyman Mike Davis, or fullback Patrick Ricard, so leave them all on your waiver wire.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Rashod Bateman (Start, WR3), Devin Duvernay (Sit), James Proche (Sit), DeMarcus Robinson (Sit), Tylan Wallace (Sit), Isaiah Likely (Start, TE2*), Mark Andrews (Start, TE2*), Josh Oliver (Sit).
After not appearing on Monday’s injury report, Rashod Bateman was officially listed as questionable after missing Tuesday’s practice with an apparent foot injury. It’s the same ailment that forced him out of action for two games earlier this season, per the team’s official website. However, Bateman practiced in full, and given his healthy target share last week (33.3%), we like him as a low-end WR3 with upside, assuming he suits up. If Bateman is a surprise sit, Devin Duvernay has boom-or-bust flex appeal. The former Texas Longhorn has taken a step this season and is no stranger to drawing Lamar Jackson’s attention in the red zone; the two have connected on three touchdowns so far this year.
You can find James Proche, DeMarcus Robinson, and Tylan Wallace on your waiver wire for a reason. Leave them there. However, Isaiah Likely is a name to look for, especially if Mark Andrews is sidelined by a nagging ankle injury that severely hampered him last week.
Andrews played 88 percent of his team’s snaps last week, but was targeted only twice, and didn’t catch a pass. The Ravens’ offense typically runs through the tight end position, more so than just about any other in the league, so expect Likely to play a key role if tapped to start. That scenario is looking more likely with Andrews sitting out Tuesday’s practice entirely, a mere 48 hours before game day.
Whether it’s a gimpy Andrews or the more likely Likely, expect TE2 production from a Baltimore Ravens tight end on Thursday night. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Josh Oliver catch a stray touchdown, but we can’t bet on it, nor can we count on consistent production between the 20-yard lines. We’ll pass and look for tight end production elsewhere.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB2)
The Baltimore Ravens are giving up an average of 20.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Tom Brady has frankly played like an average quarterback of late. “The GOAT” is right on the QB1/QB2 cusp this week after an extremely disappointing outing against a rudderless Carolina Panthers franchise. Brady offers nothing in the ground game, so he’s dependent on his receiving options.
Last year, Brady had the luxury of having the mercurial Antonio Brown as a third wide receiver. He could bank on future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski as a safety valve and key red zone threat. The Buccaneers’ offensive line was healthier and far more effective, and Chris Godwin had two healthy knees. Ah, those were the days. No offense to Russell Gage, Cade Otton, and Chris Godwin’s somewhat healthy knee, but there are plenty of reasons why we’re erring on the side of caution and viewing Brady as a QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2), Rachaad White (Sit), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Sit)
After logging a snap share of over 75 percent in each of his first three contests, Leonard Fournette’s field presence is waning. The former LSU standout has played 62 percent or fewer of Tampa Bay’s snaps in three of the last four games. Meanwhile, rookie Rachaad White has spent less time on the sidelines, taking the field for 38 percent or more of the Buccaneers’ offensive plays in three of the last four weeks.
Neither back was particularly impressive during last week’s embarrassing loss to the Panthers. Fournette managed only 26 total yards on 10 touches, making White’s pedestrian totals of 32 yards on 7 touches look more impressive than they truly were. Fournette, who drew one more target than White last week, continued the trend of being Brady’s go-to option out of the backfield. Unfortunately, the volume wasn’t there, as Fournette’s three targets were his lowest total since Week 2.
Even though the Baltimore Ravens are the sixth most generous team in terms of points allowed to opposing fantasy running backs, we’re not bullish on either back, both of whom will go as the sputtering Tampa Bay offense goes. Fournette should still post RB2 numbers, but White is an emergency FLEX option at best until further notice. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has yet to take an offensive snap this season, and we don’t see that changing anytime soon, barring injury.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR1), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Russell Gage (Sit), Breshad Perriman (Sit), Scott Miller (Sit), Jaelon Darden (Sit), Cade Otton (Start, TE2), Cameron Brate (Sit), Ko Kieft (Sit), Kyle Rudolph (Sit)
Last week, Mike Evans dropped a sure touchdown pass, and the tires on the Buccaneers’ offensive wagon immediately went flat. Nonetheless, Evans was peppered with passes throughout, getting targeted on a healthy 28.3 percent of his routes run, per A.J. Passman’s weekly TPPR article for The Fantasy Footballers. A total of 15 passes were thrown to Evans, his highest total of the season to date. Evans is a sure-fire weekly starter, and he should post low-end WR1 numbers against Baltimore this coming weekend.
Even though Godwin was targeted an impressive 13 times, he caught barely more than half (7) of balls thrown his way, and only managed to compile 43 receiving yards. We love the volume, but we’re not convinced that Godwin is the same player he was prior to last year’s season-ending knee injury in Week 15.
Meanwhile, we can’t recommend Gage outright due to his low floor: Gage has scored fewer than five fantasy points in three of his last four games. However, he potentially offers low-end flex utility to desperate fantasy managers saddled with injuries and bye weeks, as the Ravens have been more generous than most to opposing fantasy wide receivers. Don’t even think about Breshad Perriman, Scott Miller, or Jaelon Darden, as none of the three will see the field enough to make a fantasy impact.
Tight end Cade Otton is no Gronk, but he is an ascending talent who is gaining Brady’s trust. Cameron Brate is likely to sit again after sustaining a neck injury on the heels of a recent concussion, so expect Otton to build on his promising Week 7 numbers: four catches on five targets for 64 yards. Go ahead and leave Ko Kieft and Kyle Rudolph on the waiver wire where they belong.