Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 30th, 2022, 8:20 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Betting Odds: BUF -11, 47.5 total via PFF.com
Network: NBC
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB2)
Things have not looked right for the Packer’s offense and Aaron Rodgers. They failed to convert on any 3rd or 4th downs in their week seven loss to the Commanders. In that game, Rodgers had 34 passing attempts but only completed 23 of them for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Those touchdowns saved his fantasy day and got him barely into the QB2 range. I expect more of the same this week against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are giving up the third least fantasy points to the quarterback position and are coming off the bye week. Given extra time to prepare and how bad the offense in Green Bay has looked, I believe Rodgers will be a QB2 again. You are still probably starting him but if you have better options you might want to roll with them.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), A.J. Dillon (Sit, FLEX)
Let’s start with the bad news in the Packers’ backfield. A.J. Dillon has been a huge bust so far this season. Outside of a stellar week one performance he hasn’t been more than a flex play. What isn’t great is that his snap shares have gone below 50% in the past three weeks. He didn’t see any targets again in week seven which was the case in Week 5. In Week 6 he saw six targets but still only caught four of them for 11 yards. I don’t think you can trust Dillon right now unless you are desperate.
Aaron Jones has been better in the offense but is still not the RB1 we all wanted. He has single-digit carries the past two weeks and has not gotten over 100 yards in the past three weeks. His Week 7 was saved by receiving ten targets, catching nine of them, and scoring two touchdowns. Buffalo has a very solid defense with great cover linebackers who could keep Jones’s passing work to a minimum. The Bills are giving up the fifth least points to running backs according to Fantasydata.com. PFF.com has the Bills ranked 13th in run defense at 63.2. It looks like it could be a long day for Jones against this defense. you can still slide him into your lineup as an RB2 due to him getting the bulk of the carries and receiving a good amount of passes even when the team is down on the scoreboard which they are projected to be on Sunday night.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Allen Lazard (Start, WR3), Romeo Doubs (Start, FLEX), Christian Watson (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Sit, TE2)
Let’s start with the names we don’t need to say much about. It’s a sit for Sammy Watkins, Amari Rodgers, and Samori Toure. Only Watkins played on over 50% of the team’s snaps and he barely cracked that threshold at 52%. None of them have significant targets that you can trust them to produce. The Bills have great depth in the secondary so coverage will be tough. There have to be better options for you on waivers. I also do not think Christian Watson can be played even if he does make it back from the hamstring injury that kept him out of the week seven matchup.
Allen Lazard has been the number-one guy in the Green Bay passing attack all season but is now dealing with a shoulder injury. The Bills are giving up the 10th fewest points to the wide receiver position at 30.72. It looks like Lazard will play and will probably draw coverage rookie Kaiir Elam who grades at 67.1 in coverage from PFF.com. It’s a tough matchup for all the Packers receivers and given how bad they have been and the injury I’m lowering Lazard to a WR3 this week. He has four touchdowns on the year which is hopeful but has yet to crack into the WR1 range even with those.
Rookie Romeo Doubs was almost invisible in Week 7. He saw four targets and caught ZERO of them. He played on 89% of the team’s snaps and ran a team-high 32 routes. It was a head-scratcher for sure considering before that he was seeing similar snap shares but was getting on average 7.5 targets the past four weeks. So what can we expect from him in Week 8 against a very good Bills defense? I will say that Doubs will be better than Week 7 but only a flex play. I think you can start him. The Packers and Rodgers will probably be behind in the game and will spend a fair amount of the weeks preparation trying to right the ship in the offense. It’s a prime-time game so I believe that Rodgers wants to showcase that he still has it and will need Doubs to do that. Doubs did drop a crucial 4th-and-1 pass that would have kept a drive going late in the game. Had he made that he would have not only kept the drive going but probably seen a few more targets from Rodgers.
Tight end Robert Tonyan has been okay this season. He has been at least a TE2 every week except for Week 2. I don’t like him this week against the Safeties and Linebackers of the Bills who are very good in coverage. Matt Milano is one of the best cover linebackers and will probably take on Tonyan when is he running routes. Given the pass rush ability of the Bills Tonyan may have to stay in and block more. I would sit him this week unless you are desperate.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
MVP! MVP! MVP!. Ohh sorry, let me put my fandom away for a minute. You are starting Josh Allen, even though the Packers are giving up the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks. Allen is coming off a bye so he has had an extra week to rest and plan for the packer’s secondary and defensive schemes. Outside of Jaire Alexander no other starting player in the Green Bay secondary rates above 60 on PFF.com. In his career coming off the bye, Josh Allen has six touchdowns and only one interception. Allen and the Bills coaching staff will have a great game plan to showcase what the Bills can do on national television on Sunday night. Even if you had concerns you wouldn’t be benching the best QB in football who is a surefire QB1 every week.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), James Cook (Sit, Flex), Zack Moss (Sit)
Much to the surprise of pretty much everyone it has been only Devin Singletary that has gotten rushing work in Buffalo. he has been their best back averaging 4.49 yards per carry and seeing 46% of the team’s total carries. It’s a relatively low volume which puts Singletary squarely in the RB2 range. He has only seen double-digit carries twice and only once been over 15. That has to give any manager pause. Despite that Singletary has posted production of Rb1 once, Rb2, once and flex twice. The Packers are giving up the 10th most fantasy points to running backs so the matchup looks good for Singletary. You are starting him as a low-end RB2 this week
There is a case to be made for James Cook to get more involved. Coming out of the bye the Bills could look to change up things and get the rookie some more carries as they prepare for the playoffs Cook has seen his snap shares increase over the past few weeks. He seems to get more work in games where the Bills have a solid lead. Being favored by 11 points this could be the case in week 8. If the Bills take a lead into the fourth quarter expect to see Cook get more reps. I still don’t want to start him even if he is in the Flex production range but he should be monitored. It seems that Zack Moss has lost his work to Cook.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, Flex), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit, Flex), Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2)
What do you get an offense that is already the best in the league? A week off to prepare and rest. Stefon Diggs has been a dream this season. He has been in the WR1 range four times this year already. He is averaging just under 11 targets per game. He has six touchdowns on the year. He is an every-week WR1. He will have Jaire Alexander covering him most of the game so maybe temper expectations some.
Gabe Davis has been a boom more than bust this season. He has three games with a touchdown compared to two without. It’s not a great matchup as the Packers are giving up the seventh fewest points to wide receivers on the season. I think you can start Davis as a flex play with WR1 upside if he gets one big bomb. It’s a prime-time game on Sunday night. Josh Allen may want to come out and showcase his talents. Davis’s big game potential makes him someone you want to start every week. He needs to score to be a top-end scorer. When he doesn’t score he is still a flex play. The upside is worth it.
Outside of Diggs and Davis, you are looking at Isaiah McKenzie or tight end Dawson Knox. The Packers are giving up the third least amount of points to tight ends. Considering that Knox hasn’t topped 50 yards yet this season I can’t recommend starting him. McKenzie is in the same boat. He is just barely starting 51% of the team’s snaps and only once has over 6 targets and over 50 yards. he hasn’t been super efficient on his targets but does have 3 scores on the season. He is losing work to rookie Khalil Shakir. Until one of them can be a more consistent player for the team you cant start either.