Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 30th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: TEN -2, 40.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (OUT?/Sit), Malik Willis (Sit)
There is continued uncertainty surrounding the health of Ryan Tannehill after he suffered an ankle injury over the division-rival Colts last week. Malik Willis replaced Tannehill after the injury, but for only a single play. Willis would be the starter if Tannehill is ruled out next week, and while Willis brings an element to the game Tannehill doesn’t, the rookie has struggled with going through progressions and looked to run in situations a veteran QB wouldn’t. Neither QB brings much upside to the position with the run-heavy approach the team employs and a wounded Tannehill is even less exciting. Pass on either starting QB in Week 8.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Dontrell Hilliard (Sit)
Given the current QB situation with the Titans, it should come as no surprise to see Derrick Henry at or near the top of many fantasy rankings for this week. Houston is allowing an average of 174 total yards to RBs this season and when you look at players with very little competition for touches, as is the case with Henry, the numbers are even better. Houston surrendered 175 total yards and one TD to Jonathan Taylor in Week 1 and Josh Jacobs gashed them last week for 155 total yards and three TDs. There is a good chance Henry finishes the week as the overall #1 RB and is an easy starting RB1 for fantasy managers this week.
Despite seeing nearly 30% of the offensive snaps each of the last three weeks, Dontrell Hilliard is not very highly involved in the offense. Out of 54 total snaps over that time, Hilliard has only nine touches for 45 yards and one TD. I thought Hilliard might have some low-level FLEX appeal when I started this piece, but unless Tennessee builds an insurmountable lead early I just don’t think he sees enough action to get into that tier. I’d advise sitting Hilliard this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Robert Woods (Start, WR3/FLEX), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Cody Hollister (Sit), Austin Hooper (Sit), Geoff Swaim (Sit)
Injuries have swept through the Tennessee WR room, but Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine have been spared the blight and are about the only consistent options the team has had. Woods leads the team with 264 snaps while Westbrook-Ikhine is a close second at 250. The WR with the next most snaps has 124 and he (Treylon Burks) hasn’t played since Week 4. The difference between the two is that Woods has more than double the number the targets (32) of any other healthy WR (Westbrook-Ikhine, 14) and has been the most productive as a result with 20 receptions for 230 yards and one TD. With BYEs and injuries piling up across the NFL, Woods provides some low-end FLEX value as the most involved WR on the roster. Westbrook-Ikhine is still bench-fodder for fantasy managers this week.
Cody Hollister was the “other” WR for Tennessee last week and Mason Kinsey made a few appearances, but the duo combined for just 35 total snaps last week and neither has done anything of note so far this season. The further away from Woods you get, the less appealing any WRs are on this team and neither of these guys should be anywhere near your roster.
It’s a bit of a revolving door at TE for Tennessee as four players saw at least 14 snaps last week but the only fantasy-relevant players continue to be Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim. Hooper has been the more productive of the two, garnering five more targets on the season (14 to 9) and posting nine receptions for 111 yards. Swaim has the only TD between the two, but neither is involved enough to trust as a starting option for fantasy managers. Look elsewhere for TE production in Week 8.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
Davis Mills (Sit)
Sometimes what you see is exactly what you get and that’s the case with Davis Mills. It was a bit of a surprise last season when Mills was named the starter over Tyrod Taylor after Deshaun Watson’s team-imposed suspension, but Mills held on to the starting role throughout the season despite the team struggling to a 2-9 record in his starts. Mills wasn’t much of a fantasy starter either, averaging just 205 yards per game with a 16:10 TD:INT ratio. Tennessee has struggled to contain QBs this season, surrendering an average of 294 yards and two TDs per game through six games this season. Mills has reached those numbers just once this season so it’s hard to expect another week in the QB1 ranks. Sit Mills this week.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Start, low-end RB1), Rex Burkhead (Sit)
After being named the starting RB heading into the season, Dameon Pierce saw an astounding jump in ADP in leagues that had their drafts later in the preseason. Pierce has rewarded fantasy managers who took a chance on him as the rookie sits right on the RB1/RB2 edge in PPR leagues. Pierce has dominated the snaps at RB for Houston most weeks and is the team’s preferred option when the game stays close. Pierce is facing a defense that has buckled down against opposing RBs since being run over by Saquon Barkley in Week 1. Since then, Tennessee has allowed an average of 61 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards, and zero TDs to the position, making Pierce a bit less enticing. Still, this has the makings of a close game throughout which should give Pierce a decent amount of volume and I think he can return low-end RB1 numbers for fantasy managers. Trust Pierce this week in your starting lineups.
When Houston elects to pass, Rex Burkhead is the preferred option for the team. Pierce isn’t phased totally out of the passing game as he has 19 targets on the season, but Burkhead is second on the team with 30 targets and generally receives 30% of the team’s snaps. For fantasy purposes, Burkhead is one of those guys who won’t produce much as long as the guy ahead of him is healthy and playing. Unless Tennessee builds a big league and turns Houston into a one-dimensional offense, Burkhead won’t get enough work to crack starting lineups this week. Keep Burkhead on your bench as a nice depth piece with upside if something were to happen to Pierce.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandin Cooks (Start, WR3 with WR2 upside), Nico Collins (OUT?), Chris Moore (Sit), Phillip Dorsett (Sit), Brevin Jordan (Sit), Jordan Akins (Sit), O.J. Howard (Sit)
Despite being designated as the #1 WR for Houston, Brandin Cooks has seen a steady decline in targets as the 2022 season has progressed. Cooks saw 12 targets back in Week 1 and has seen that number dwindle to just five in Houston’s Week 7 loss to the Raiders. The good news for Cooks and fantasy managers who have him on their rosters is that injuries have decimated the WR room and the team had just three healthy WRs at the end of last week’s game. Cooks still provides Mills with a solid downfield threat with an ADOT of 8.4 yards and he should see those targets tick back up this week given the spate of injuries at the position. I think Cooks has the potential to crack the WR2 ranks but fantasy managers should go into Week 8 with tempered expectations and prepare for a WR3 finish.
The team leader in receiving yards, Nico Collins, exited last week’s game in the third quarter with a groin injury and early expectations are that the injury will keep him out of this week’s game. If Collins does miss the game, that should lead to more opportunities for Phillip Dorsett who replaced Collins last week. Collins’s absence could also lead to a slight bump in targets for Chris Moore. Despite Houston passing on 61% of their plays so far this season, it’s hard to get excited about anybody other than one guy given how Mills has performed. If the game remains close, I don’t know that Houston will pass as much as they have this season, lowering both the floor and ceiling of their pass catchers. I don’t think Dorsett or Moore returns enough value to be worth starting this week. Bench both.
It’s a guessing game trying to figure out which TE, or TEs, will be on the field for any particular play for Houston. Last week, all three players saw at least 40% of the team’s snaps. Jordan Akins and Brevin Jordan both saw four targets on the game and O.J. Howard saw none. Akins was able to reel in three of those targets for 68 yards while Jordan was held without a catch on his targets. Akins has been the most productive on the season with 10 receptions for 154 yards but Howard leads the team with two TD receptions. If one player were to come out of this group and command the majority of snaps and targets consistently, that person could be a viable option for fantasy managers. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened yet As a result, I can’t recommend any of these three as a starting option for Week 8.