Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, 10/30, 1:00
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Betting Odds: Atlanta -4.5, 42.0, by Caeser’s
Network: FOX
Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
PJ Walker (Start, QB2)
The heroic story of PJ Walker last week triumphing over Tampa Bay only netted him 177 passing yards, though he did have two touchdowns. Our hero looks to keep pounding against a Falcons defense that is bottom five in sacks and quarterback pressure and is the bottom team in passing yards allowed and the most air yards allowed. I think this will be Walker’s first game throwing for over 220 yards and could be considered a bye-week fill-in or a superflex start. We just don’t have a lot to go off of here, as he spent all of his playing time last season splitting snaps in games with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton. But this is his offense to run now as he was given the start “regardless of health” of the other quarterbacks on the team. This offense still has talented pass catchers, and with some of the Falcons’ defensive line having injury concerns, this could be a sneaky play to get you through the week.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard (Start, RB2), D’Onta Foreman (Start, Flex)
I know last week had D’Onta Foreman as the better rusher, but over half his yards on the day came on 2 of his 15 rushes. The majority of his rushes came after Chuba Hubbard got injured and left the game. It was reported he could have come back in, but it was so late in the game, and with the Panthers comfortably up it was deemed prudent to keep him out. Both running backs here averaged over 7 YPC in that game, but I believe Hubbard is the play here. He got the red zone carry which he ran in for the touchdown. While Foreman might be the better-looking back long term, I see them leaning heavier on Hubbard for this game. It should be noted that since letting Nick Chubb rumble over them, the Falcons have held the next 3 running backs they faced to under 60 yards. So I do lean toward the lower end of the flex-RB2 range.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start-WR2/1), Everyone else (Sit or Flex)
I like this matchup for DJ Moore. He saw his second-highest targets on the season last week and had a season-high seven receptions against the Buccaneers defense. Now he faces a depleted Falcons secondary, and his quarterback will have a little more time in the pocket. I think he is fully capable of WR1 numbers in this game. Sadly for everyone else, I’m just not comfortable recommending anyone else as more than a dart throw. Look, someone is going to put up WR3 numbers, perhaps even WR2. But I don’t know which one it is going to be with any confidence. I started listing out all the receivers and tight ends but they all had the same designation from me so I just consolidated it into ‘everyone else’. We’re at the dawning of the PJ Walker era and forging ahead on new ground here without a lot to go off since trading away Robbie Anderson.
They liked Tommy Tremble enough to trade Dan Arnold away, yet he’s only seen more than one target in a game once this season. He did get his touchdown last week if that helps, but it’s a wild chase trying to predict those. Terrace Marshall is averaging four points per game in his three games played, Shi Smith didn’t even get a target last week, and so on. It’s not that I think the Falcons are going to keep them in check, they are dead last in air yards allowed and third lowest in both yards-after-catch and passing touchdowns allowed. But I’m not going to lie to you and pick a specific receiver for you to get mad at me when it’s the other guy that goes off. That said, the matchup is juicy so if you have a Panthers pass-catcher, odds are good for you this week. So shake those dice, yell ‘no whammy’ and start them.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (Sit)
Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield have more passing attempts than Marcus Mariota this season. You’re wagering a start or sit based on if he’s going to rush a lot this game. With seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and averaging just under 170 yards passing, you are needing those rushing yards. The Panthers have held Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones to under 30 yards rushing in their two games this season, so the odds are not too great. While Carolina does have a high-pressure rate, they don’t have a lot of sacks. So there is potential for a pocket to break down leading to scrambling yards, I don’t see a lot of planned sneaks breaking through in this game. If you don’t have a lot of other options, some optimism is he has put up QB2 numbers against their previous two divisional rivals this season.
Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier (Start-Flex), Caleb Huntley (Start-Flex)
Since Week 2, the Panthers have not allowed a running back more than 61 yards except for Jeff Wilson Jr. in those five games. However, it’s the Falcons and we know coach Smith is going to establish the run. It’s what he does. Atlanta has scored five rushing touchdowns in their last four games, but each one was by a different person! I see a lot of running in this game, so the potential for a repeat of the 49ers game where the team had 40 rushing attempts is high. In that game, both running backs split the work equally. In most of the games this season, each back has been within 5 or fewer touches of the other until last week against the Bengals where they fell behind early. The nod went to Tyler Allgeier in that case, with Caleb Huntley a full 10 carries behind his counterpart. I think this game will be a lot closer, so the carries should be as well. The Panthers have had the third most rushes attempted against them and are in the middle of the run to rushing yards and touchdowns allowed.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start-Flex), Kyle Pitts (Start-Flex), Olamide Zaccheaus (Start-Flex)
Drake London has had quite the start to the season and has since tapered off hard. It’s also difficult to catch passes when your quarterback hasn’t cracked 15 attempts in the last two weeks. The good news is, his quarterback should have more time in the pocket this week than in previous weeks. The bad news, they’ll be running it far more than they will be passing it. In the end, he hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points since week 3. So this is a flex start and should net you about 7-10 points on the day. The Panthers are also middle of the road in passing yards allowed, and bottom ten on air yards before the catch. No doubt the Panthers really miss Jaycee Horn, and the Falcons might look to exploit his absence if he misses a third week in a row so it bears monitoring through this practice week.
Carolina is giving up an average of 4 catches for 40 yards and .3 touchdowns a game. Bah Gawd, those are Kyle Pitts numbers! He’s going to get 3-5 catches for 3-30 yards and flip your coin for the touchdown. That said, the majority of the owners in your league are doing the same thing with their tight ends as well, so keep flipping. Olamide Zaccheaus has been surprisingly consistent. His snap count seems to fluctuate week to week, but his production is very smooth. Flex tier in just about all weeks, with WR3 if he gets a touchdown. Since I believe this will be a lower-scoring game, I don’t see the touchdown coming for him this week. Do you need six points? Zaccheaus will get you six points. Do you need 10 points? Zaccheaus will get you six points.