Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 30th, 2022, 1:00 pm EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Betting Odds: NYJ +1.5, 40.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Sit, QB2), Bailey Zappe (Sit)
It seems like the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick have a full-blown quarterback battle on their hands. Second-year starter Mac Jones returned from his ankle injury suffered in Week 3. He only played 18 snaps and attempted six passes before getting benched after an interception. This opened the door for rookie Bailey Zappe to come in and attempt 22 passes completing 14 of them for 185 yards and two interceptions. The old adage is, if you have two quarterbacks, then you have none. This seems to apply to the Patriots heading into Week 8. Mac Jones hasn’t played well this season after having a solid rookie campaign. Zappe has played well in his two starts in Weeks 5 and 6. He was there for three touchdowns and only one interception over that time. This week it’s the Jets’ defense. The men in green are giving up the tenth fewest points to the quarterback position. Considering that and the unknown of who will start I’m not starting either. I suspect whoever starts will be a QB2 but it’s not a great matchup.
Running Backs
Damien Harris (Start, FLEX), Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB2)
Week 7 saw the return of Damien Harris after missing Week 6 and most of Week 5 with a hamstring issue. He only logged three carries and two targets on nine snaps. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to those paying attention to the New England backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson has played on more snaps than Harris in five out of six games. Stevenson saw the bulk of the work against the Bears carrying the ball 11 times scoring once. He also added in eight receptions on eight targets. It marks two straight weeks of Stevenson finding pay dirt. The Patriots’ backfield now gets the Jets’ defense. The Jets’ rush D is rated by PFF as the 6th best at 69.1. They are only giving up 21.26 points to fantasy running backs which puts them 11th on the list. It’s a tough matchup for both Harris and Stevenson but with Stevenson’s pass-catching work he is more fantasy viable. Harris is a low-end FLEX option who should get more work as his hamstring continues to heal but looks to be on the smaller side of the timeshare. He did score in each of the three games before he was injured. Stevenson should be started as an RB2 due to the total number of opportunities and how well he has done with them. He is averaging just under 5 yards per carry. With the uncertainty at quarterback, it would probably call for more running than passing.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), DeVante Parker (Start, FLEX), Tyquan Thornton (Start, FLEX), Hunter Henry (Sit, TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
The upheaval at the quarterback position hasn’t impacted the wide receivers as one might have thought. Jakobi Meyers is still leading the team in snap percentage and routes run over the past two games. He ran 33 routes in week six and 30 in Week 7, and he got back into the endzone after scoring his first touchdown in Week 5. The Jets are giving up the ninth fewest points to wide receivers. Meyers will probably see coverage from rookie Sauce Gardner who has shown even early in his career that he can be a shutdown corner. PFF.com rated Gardner at 82.9 in coverage which is third best out of 112 corners. It could be a long week for Meyers. I still believe he can be started as a WR3. Meyers did play 77% of his passing snaps in the slot which would get him off Gardner coverage and put him across from Michael Carter II who rates at 69.9 which is 31st out of 112 corners.
The other side of the field in coverage is D.J. Reed who is rated at 78.9 and is twelfth best out of 112 corners. He will probably cover DeVante Parker who played on 92% of the team’s week seven snaps. He saw five targets, catching three of them for 68 yards. His playing time hasn’t been that affected by the emergence of rookie Tyquan Thornton. Thornton played on 85% of the snaps and saw five targets. He only caught one for 19 yards which was a step back from his Week 6 breakout performance of four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. I’m putting both Thornton and Parker into the start FLEX range. The hope is that one or both can find the end zone but should see enough targets to make them viable in PPR leagues.
The tight-end position has been lackluster. With the wideouts and Stevenson soaking up targets, there isn’t much for Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Smith hasn’t played more than 50% of the team’s snaps since Week 2. Henry has been playing plenty of snaps but outside of Week 6, he hasn’t seen more than five targets. You can’t trust a tight end who is seeing that few targets. He would have to be very efficient with those targets, and this season he’s averaging just 7.3 yards per target. You have to sit him even if he will be in the TE2 range.
New York Jets
Quarterback
Zach Wilson (Sit)
Since returning from his injury Zach Wilson has been less than stellar. He has only one game over 250 yards. That was back in his first game which also happens to be the only game he has thrown a touchdown. He is only completing 57% of his passes. He hasn’t been what you or the Jets have wanted. He now faces the Patriots who are middle of the road in points to quarterbacks, giving up 17.09 points, good for 15th. It’s not a great matchup but also not one that scares you off. However, Wilson’s play will probably be enough to scare you off. The Jets’ offense is in a state of upheaval with new players, injuries and trade requests. I’m not starting Wilson even in two QB leagues.
Running Backs
Michael Carter (Start, FLEX), James Robinson (Start, FLEX)
It was a sad day for the Jets and the fantasy community when Breece Hall went down with what was confirmed season-ending knee injury. Michael Carter owners were quietly celebrating their newfound RB1 but were quickly shut down when the Jets traded picks to the Jaguars for James Robinson. What that backfield looks like heading into this week is a mystery. Robinson will be coming in with limited practice but as a running back should still be able to get work. It’s a tough matchup against the Patriots who are giving up the seventh fewest points to running backs. The Jets are only running the ball 40% of the time. With the passing game not really clicking and now adding in Robinson, I’m not high on either player. Until we see the breakdown of snaps and carry numbers both will be FLEX plays with upside if they take over or find the end zone. The Jets’ offensive line is dealing with injuries so that will probably play into the rushers being less than productive.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Elijah Moore (Sit, FLEX), Garrett Wilson (Start, FLEX), Corey Davis (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit), C.J. Uzomah (Sit)
The biggest question on the Jets team is whether Elijah Moore be active and what his role will be. He has asked for a trade due to lack of usage once Zach Wilson came back under center. Early reports are that Moore will be active, but I don’t expect his usage to be great as he has valid concerns about his lack of targets. In Weeks 4 and 5, he only had four targets each week and then zero in Week 6. The Patriots have a solid group of corners, three of whom PFF rates over 70. Moore is probably in the FLEX range but I’m not trusting him enough to start him.
The Patriots are giving up the eight fewest points to wide receivers. This could be a sign that Garrett Wilson might not have a good day. Wilson only played on 73% of the team’s Week 7 snaps, his second-highest snap percentage on the season. It’s not a ton of opportunities for the presumed number-one receiver on the team, as Wilson to Wilson connection just hasn’t been there yet. The rookie hasn’t seen over 5 targets since Z. Wilson has come back. I still think he is a startable FLEX play this week due to G. Wilson’s talent.
After Wilson and Moore, it’s a group of wide receivers who all have red flags. Corey Davis is questionable with a knee injury. He was playing close to 70% of the team’s snaps before the injury. He doesn’t get enough targets to make me start him considering the matchup and injury. Braxton Berrios could be an interesting name. He saw an uptick in snaps going from 25% on average to 56% with no Moore and Davis getting injured. He saw four targets and caught three of them. He only managed 15 yards on those receptions so he will need more yards to be fantasy relevant. He has gotten some designed runs over the past few weeks which he has broken off for big gains. Given the change in the backfield, we could see a few more of those this week. Still not starting him but will monitor him.
The tight ends for the Jets have been frustrating over the past three weeks. When the Jets signed both Ty Conklin and C.J. Uzomah in the offseason, there were questions about who would be the guy. It was Conklin early while Uzomah recovered from an injury. Once he came back, it seemed he might fully take over from Conklin, but that hasn’t happened. They are both playing around 70% of the team’s snaps. Both are only seeing under 5 targets, outside of Conklin getting six in Week 7. They will see coverage from Kyle Dugger and Ja’Whaun Bentley. It doesn’t look like a great matchup, as the Patriots are allowing 13.06 points which are middle of the road at 14th most. I’m not starting either until we see one fully take over.