Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 30th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detriot, MI
Betting Odds: MIA -3.5, 51.5 total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, Low-QB1)
At this point, it’s no secret that the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They give up an average of 22.67 ppg (points-per-game) to opposing signal-callers, the fourth-highest in the league. Although Tua Tagovailoa missed some time due to injury, he looked solid last week against Pittsburgh. In fact his 15.94 points last week was his second-highest of the season, well short of his Week 2 38-point performance. I expect Tua to sling it and finish as a top-10 QB this week.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), Chase Edmonds (Sit)
If you read the Tua breakdown you know the Lions are giving up 22.67 points to QBs. Well, they’re giving up 23.67(!) ppg to running backs, the second-highest across the league. Admittedly I wasn’t optimistic about this backfield early on in the season, but Raheem Mostert has shown he can be a reliable fantasy starter. Since Week 2 Mostert has had at least ten points in four out of six games. The impressive thing is Mostert is doing it without touchdowns, with only one rushing and one receiving touchdown of the year. The Lions are allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns (12) and they’ve had their bye week already! I like Mostert to keep his momentum up coming off of a 20.9-point performance last week.
The Dolphins’ backfield reminds me of an old dog who’s too tired to play, no Chase. Chase Edmonds was looking to be the back you wanted in the pre-season but at this point, he’s better left on waivers. His snap count percentages in the last five weeks are 29, 40, 15, 28, and 44. If you need a guy with a pulse to start in your flex, he meets that criteria.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, Low-WR1), Trent Sherfield (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, High-TE2)
Can one team support two WR1s? The Dolphins have all year. Entering Week 8 Tyreek Hill is WR3 and Jaylen Waddle is WR7. Although Waddle’s ranking mostly comes from the boost of his 40-point performance back in Week 2, he has finished with 15 or more points in four of seven weeks. Tyreek Hill hyped up Tua all offseason and it’s clear the chemistry is real. Hill leads the league in targets with 78. There isn’t much else to be said about this dynamic duo, if you have either they’re set-and-forget players.
Trent Sherfield shouldn’t be rostered, even in deeper leagues.
Mike Gesicki’s stocks are on the rise. With seven targets in his last two games, he’s becoming more involved with the offense as the season progresses. The Lions also allow 10 ppg to tight ends, the fourth-highest in the league. If you need a startable tight end, I’m looking at you Kyle Pitts‘ managers, Gesicki is worth a shot in your lineup.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Sit, Low-QB2)
After starting the season with some surprising performances including 15, 26, 13, and 33(!) points, Jared Goff has come crashing down to earth the last two weeks, putting 5.86 and an abysmal 1.52(!) points. This week he gets a shot at redemption against a team allowing a higher-than-league average of 21.71 ppg. The downside is the status of his standout number-one receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is still up in the air as of Wednesday evening. Proceed with caution when starting Goff, I consider him a Low-QB2 this week.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, High-RB2) Jamaal Williams (Flex), Craig Reynolds (Sit)
The pride of the Lions’ backfield, D’Andre Swift hasn’t played since Week 3. There were reports Swift would return after the bye week, but that ultimately didn’t happen as Swift missed yet another week. This week is already looking better than last, Swift was a full participant during Wednesday’s practice and all signs point to him playing this week. Hopefully, if you drafted him early your season is still worth saving. Swift returns with a much better matchup than last week would have been, as the Dolphins allow a middle-of-the-pack 17 ppg to opposing running backs. When Swift starts for the Lions, he starts in my lineup. He’s realistically a High-RB2, but I’m hopeful for RB1 numbers this week
Having to fill in last minute against a tough matchup, Jamaal Williams put up 7.3 points last week. According to reports as of Wednesday evening, it’s looking like Swift will be back in the Lions’ lineup this week. That puts Williams back to back up and change of pace role. Even with Swift starting, I expect Williams to get some usage as he did the first two weeks when Swift was healthy. I expect Williams to put up Flex-worthy numbers.
Craig Reynolds tallied exactly 6 points last week against the Cowboys. With Swift hopefully back in the lineup, Reynolds reverts back to the third option where I don’t see any fantasy relevance. He could be worth rostering for a week or two as we monitor Swift’s health, but as the third option, Reynolds belongs on the waivers in most leagues.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, High-WR2), Josh Reynolds (Start, WR3), Kalif Raymond (WR3 if St. Brown is Out), T.J. Hockenson (Start, High-TE2)
The forecast is cloudy for Sun-God managers, as Amon-Ra St. Brown left last week’s game due to injury. He was limited in practice Wednesday and it’s foggy whether or not the Lions’ top receiver will play this week. If he does play, I like his chances to be productive as the Dolphins allow an above-average 22 ppg to WRs. Monitor his situation closely and have a backup plan in case the sun doesn’t shine this weekend.
As if St. Brown’s limited practice wasn’t bad enough for the Lions’ wide receivers, Josh Reynolds missed practice entirely on Wednesday. Reynolds started the season better than anyone could have imagined, putting up 12, 15, 21, and 15 points from Weeks 2 through 5. Reynolds’ production factors will be affected by whether or not St. Brown plays. Reynolds gets a bump if St. Brown is out, otherwise…I’m lowering expectations.
Similar to Reynolds, Kalif Raymond gets a bump if St. Brown misses this week. He’ll get a bigger bump if both miss this week. Raymond filled in nicely as the only bright spot on the Lions’ offense last week, as he saw a 90% snap count, six targets with five receptions for 75 yards. I’m hesitant to start Raymond if St. Brown plays, but if the Sun-God doesn’t shine (play) this week, Reynolds has some WR3/Flex viability.
The last time the Lions were without most of their offense T.J. Hockenson thrived! The bad news is that Hockenson didn’t practice on Wednesday either! It’s tough to predict the performance of so many injured players, so keep a close eye on their status during the week. I like Hockenson’s floor as a High-TE2 and it only goes up as the number of healthy wide receivers goes down.
Great breakdown of all the players! I appreciate the detailed analysis, especially on the QB matchups this week. It really helps in making those tough start/sit decisions. Keep up the fantastic work!
Great insights in this week’s review! I found the analysis on the waiver wire pickups particularly helpful. It’s always a challenge to make those tough start/sit decisions, but your breakdown of the matchups makes it easier. Looking forward to the next post!
Great analysis as always! I found your insights on the QB matchups particularly helpful for my start/sit decisions this week. Can’t wait to see how the players you highlighted perform!
Great analysis as always! I appreciate the detailed breakdown of each player. It’s really helpful for setting my lineup this week. Can’t wait to see how some of these matchups play out!
Great insights in this post! I really appreciate the detailed breakdown of players for Week 8. It’s super helpful to see the analysis on matchups and projections. Excited to see how my lineup shapes up based on your recommendations!
Great insights as always! I appreciate the detailed analysis on each player’s performance this week. It’s really helpful for making my lineup decisions. Keep up the great work!