Tier 14 (Continued)
151. Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) – Ty Chandler had some flashes last season on his way to 620 total yards and two touchdowns. Chandler looks to be the backup to the newly acquired Aaron Jones. Jones should dominate touches as long as he is healthy, but Chandler has the athleticism to carve out a role for a Vikings team that will be running more than they have in the past in the post-Kirk Cousins era. His best value to a team that rosters him may be the manager who trades him away after an Aaron Jones injury.
152. Bryce Young (QB, CAR) – Bryce Young will forever be known as the quarterback the Panthers traded for in the worst trade in NFL history. It’s an unfortunate start to his career, but we should not write him off entirely, especially in two-quarterback leagues. Young was given very little to work with in his rookie season as the Panthers traded away not just draft capital, but also Young’s would be number one target DJ Moore. It led to him being at the bottom of the league in yards per attempt (5.5) and average depth of target. It was a throwaway season, as now he gets Dave Canales from Tampa Bay, who helped to revive Baker Mayfield’s career. Young averaged 196 total yards per game and has a ways to go to earn that first-overall pick value. He gets Diontae Johnson, Xavier Leggette, and Jonathon Brooks this year to help him get there. While none of them present offense-changing ability, Johnson brings high-end route running combined with Legette’s elite athleticism, and both should help Young to continue developing.
153. Brandin Cooks (WR, DAL) – Brandin Cooks remains the Dallas Cowboys’ WR2. His target volume and yardage totals have dropped each of his last three seasons (134,93,81). That being said, he was able to post eight touchdowns last season and has little new competition in that area. Cooks is a fine dart throw on his touchdown opportunity alone.
154. Hunter Henry (TE, NE) – Hunter Henry may have a bit of a rollercoaster season ahead of him. He is rapidly approaching 30 years old and will have some combination of Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye leading the charge. He should dominate passing down work for the Patriots, but the offense may be trying to find its identity for most of the season. He is not a bad bye week option, but beyond that, the ceiling is limited.
155. Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) – Roschon Johnson has an intriguing skill set for a Bears offense on the rise. He will be battling it out for the RB2 with Khalil Herbert after the Bears made D’Andre Swift one of the top-10 highest-paid running backs in the NFL. Still, Johnson was one of the Bears’ best blockers last season, and he contributed on the ground and through the air, averaging over 4.0 yards per carry while adding 34 catches on his way to an 85% catch rate. Drafted just last season, if you are taking a shot on a non-Swift running back in Chicago, Roschon is the guy you want.
156. Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) – Chuba Hubbard took over for a struggling Miles Sanders last season as the Panthers offense searched for answers. While he wasn’t very efficient, he was able to post over 1,000 total yards and five touchdowns. With Jonathon Brooks still on the mend from his late-season torn ACL, Hubbard should get one last shot to prove he belongs. Hubbard becomes an afterthought after mid-season, even in larger leagues.
157. Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN) – Chigoziem Okonkwo did not quite live up to the hype last season. He saw decent target volume (77 targets) but was only able to find the endzone one time. In the new iteration of the Titans offense, Chig may be moved around more, and increased usage in the slot may be seen. While this does bode well for his fantasy outlook, I don’t expect it to be enough to move up near the top 12 at the position.
158. Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) – Daniel Jones looks to make his return from a torn ACL last season. The former Duke product has a lot to prove after the Giants chose to re-sign him just last year. There are questions about whether he will be ready for week one, but regardless of when he plays, there are some significant concerns with Jones’ profile. His arm strength has been a problem at the NFL level, and that, combined with the Giants’ atrocious offensive line play, does not bode well for Jones’ fantasy football production in 2024. He has had one successful season for fantasy managers in 2022, where he was able to rush for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns. As always, quarterbacks who run are the secret sauce for fantasy football. With Jones suffering from an ACL injury last season, there are questions about how often the Giants will ask him to use his legs. The good news is that New York drafted Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick. Nabers’ run-after-the-catch ability is the perfect fit for a quarterback who has proven to be accurate when he isn’t asked to push the ball downfield.
159. Ray Davis (RB, BUF) – Ray Davis is an absolute wrecking ball out of the backfield and joins the Buffalo Bills as their fourth-round pick in this year’s draft. The Bills are an offense in transition as they bid farewell to Stefon Diggs and drafted Keon Coleman in his place. They also have emerging stars such as Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. The latter had a solid season in 2023 but needed to improve in one major area: touchdowns. Cook’s smaller frame left no one but really Josh Allen when they got in close. Enter Ray Davis. Davis probably won’t see enough volume to be trusted week in and week out, but he could end up with double-digit touchdowns by falling into the endzone whenever the Bills land inside the five-yard line.
160. San Francisco 49ers (DEF, SF) – Nick Bosa and the company continue to be strong fantasy options. If the Niners do move on from Aiyuk, they could lean more run-heavy, which could bode well for the defense.
161. Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) – Khalil Herbert was efficient as always last season, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. The issue with Herbert has always been durability. He fits more as an early-down committee running back. There is a chance Herbert is cut this season, but if he remains a Chicago Bear in 2024, he will be more of a breather for Swift than a true weapon for the offense. In PPR leagues, he takes another hit because he has averaged only 20 targets per season.
162. Mike Williams (WR, NYJ) – Mike Williams is returning from an ACL tear and entering the season with a new team, the New York Jets. He will play opposite Garrett Wilson, which bodes well for him as he tries to return to the game at age 30. His path to success for fantasy managers in 2024 will be his usage in the red zone and Aaron Rodgers’ healthy return. He is firmly in the WR4/5 range for this season if everyone can stay healthy.
163. J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC) – J.K. Dobbins’s career has been one of the more unfortunate in recent memory. Coming out of Ohio State, he was primed to be the next superstar for the Baltimore Ravens, but he suffered multiple knee injuries and eventually an Achilles tear last season. History tells us that we should avoid running backs with this injury essentially for the rest of their careers, but especially in year one. So why is he even ranked, you may be asking? The answer is that he is now a Los Angeles Charger. The backfield includes Gus Edwards, Dobbins, and sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal. Dobbins is unquestionably the best player of this group. If he can buck the trend and prove he still has juice left in the tank, he could be a league winner. I do want to temper expectations, though, and say the odds of that fully coming to fruition sit at around 5%.
164. Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) – Romeo Doubs is often the man forgotten for the Green Bay Packers. Doubs is a do-it-all receiver who can make plays at every level of the field. The problem is he is surrounded by specialists who fit the offense well. Doubs has a chance to crack the starting lineup for week one and probably has a slight edge over Dontayvion Wicks. The problem is that Wicks should supplant him early in the season, forcing Doubs to be a rotational player.
165. Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS) – Jahan Dotson was a popular breakout candidate last season, but he wasn’t able to deliver. The issue for Dotson is he is a worse version of what the Commanders already have in Terry McLaurin. Neither player has been able to impress much while the Commanders hovered near the bottom of the league. Jayden Daniels is the new signal caller in Washington, though, and with that excitement comes more opportunity for Dotson. While he profiles as a FLEX type of player, when all is going well, the Commanders may rely more on their running backs (Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson) than they have in years past, leaving very few targets for the second or third option in the passing game.
166. New York Jets (DEF, NYJ) – The Jets had one of the better defensive units in the league last season. They return many key pieces and hope to add Haason Reddick if he can get past some of his contract disputes and trade requests.
167. Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE) – Jerry Jeudy’s time in the spotlight is rapidly coming to an end. The Broncos finally traded him to the Cleveland Browns this year, where he will contend for the number two job behind Amari Cooper. Jeudy may be able to find success in the slot if Deshaun Watson can return from his shoulder injury at 100%. Ultimately, Jeudy feels like a low-ceiling, low-floor player.
168. Kendre Miller (RB, NO) – Kendre Miller may be fighting a losing battle. His rookie season never got off the ground as he dealt with a knee injury, and he missed all of training camp this season due to a hamstring injury. Miller is young enough that managers can add him as a last-round pick or to their waiver wire watch lists and hope he gets healthy. If he can do that, he is a big-bodied, explosive back who can win in space. In Miller’s one game where he saw 40% of snaps, he was able to rush 13 times for 73 yards (5.62 ypc) while adding another six yards on his lone reception. That is worth a gamble on a team led by an aging Alvin Kamara.
169. Adam Thielen (WR, CAR) – Adam Thielen eclipsed 1,000 yards for only the third time in his career in 2023. Even with the abysmal Panthers offense, the sheer volume of opportunities was able to make him a WR2 for fantasy football. 2024 might be different. The team made a conscious effort to add weapons to help develop Bryce Young. Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette both look to take meaningful snaps from Thielen this season. Entering his age-33 season, he is a fine bench stash if Legette doesn’t pan out because this team will be throwing all four quarters.
170. Dallas Cowboys (DEF, DAL) – The Cowboys defense brings value through sacks, takeaways, and points allowed. They may see some regression this season, but not enough to worry fantasy managers.
171. Pittsburgh Steelers (DEF, PIT) – The Pittsburgh Steelers combination of TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick has devastated offenses the last few seasons, and look to it again in 2024. The Arthur Smith run-heavy scheme will help to slow down the game for the Steelers as they try to keep their defensive unit fresh all season.
172. Taysom Hill (TE, NO) – Taysom Hill is an enigma wrapped in anomaly. The Saints’ do-it-all man should continue to be implemented in all phases of the game, but with new OC Klint Kubiak, I would not be surprised for him to see fewer reps across the board. He enters his age-33 season and currently sits at 111 total touches in my projections.
173. Gabe Davis (WR, JAC) – There are very few rollercoasters I want to experience less than the Gabe Davis experience. Davis had nine games with two or fewer receptions and only five with four or more. The catch is that in those five games, he was WR14 or higher. He gets a fresh start in Jacksonville, which is desperate for playmakers, but Davis still probably falls behind Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram for targets.
Tier 15
174. Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) – Rico Dowdle has yet to give us much in his four-year career, but what he showed last year is that he can be a viable option in a committee for NFL purposes. That translating to fantasy remains to be seen. Dowdle will share the lead back duties with Ezekiel Elliot in 2024, and that should provide some decent weeks. Predicting those will be difficult as they will need to come on the back of sheer volume. Elliot projects to be the goal-line vulture we all love to hate.
175. DeMario Douglas (WR, NE) – DeMario Douglas was the lone bright spot for the New England Patriots in 2024. If he is healthy, Douglas should start the season as the team’s top wide receiver. He does have a smaller frame (5’8″, 192lbs), which may limit him to the slot, but if Drake Maye emerges as a premier quarterback in his rookie season, Douglas could be a tremendous value.
176. Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU) – Dameon Pierce was one of the more recent victims of the low draft capital running back torpedo. In 2023, he saw his yards per carry drop from 4.27 to 2.87 on half of the carries. The Texans scheme doesn’t fit Pierce’s skill set as it stands now. He will also now serve as Joe Mixon’s backup during his first season in Houston. Pierce is best left on waivers until we know more about his status with the team.
177. Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) – Michael Wilson has a lot more competition for targets than he did last season. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones both joined the Cardinals this offseason, while Greg Dortch will also return to the team. The Cardinals should be throwing a lot in 2024, but I do not foresee that being a ton of value for Wilson, who will likely rotate on the outside with Zay Jones. My current projections have him eclipsing the 600-yard mark.
178. Russell Wilson (QB, PIT) – Russell Wilson finds a new home in Pittsburgh after two poor showings with the Broncos. It’s hard to tell if Wilson should bear the brunt of the responsibility or if the Broncos’ disaster of an offense was to blame, but either way, there are signs the end is near for the former Super Bowl winner. He was near the bottom of the league in average depth of target as he dropped below 7.5 yards, which was the lowest mark of his entire career. When Wilson was first brought in, he was a lock to be the starter for the Steelers, but since then, Justin Fields has arrived in town. With Wilson currently nursing an injury, the former Bear has impressed in camp. Once preseason hysteria settles down, Wilson should win this job early on, but I do project Justin Fields to get a shot in the late season, which lowers Wilson’s already low ceiling.
179. Javon Baker (WR, NE) – Javon Baker is a fourth-round pick out of UCF. He was initially at the University of Alabama before struggling to find playing time. The move proved to be a good one, as Baker posted just under 2,000 receiving yards in his final two seasons. The good news for Baker is that he has a chance to be the Patriots’ X-receiver of the future. The challenging part is that it might not be that fruitful of a role until we get to the later parts of the season.
180. Cade Otton (TE, TB) – In tight-end premium or two tight-end leagues, Cade Otton could be a breakout candidate. He took a small step forward last season, and as he enters year three, he is being used all over the formation during training camp. He should be able to eclipse the 500-yard mark while posting three to five touchdowns.
181. Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) – Elijah Mitchell could be one of the better backups in the NFL. His health concerns are the only thing that prevents him from claiming that title. His job as the backup to Christian McCaffrey may need to be safer as the Niners went out and added Isaac Guerendo, who sports a similar bruising style, but he does it with more speed. Much like Mitchell, Guerendo has an extensive history of battling injury, so Mitchell should have the job for at least the early parts of the season.
182. Cleveland Browns (DEF, CLE) – The Browns, already a strong option for fantasy football, added defensive tackle Michael Hall from Ohio State in the second round of the NFL draft. They should continue to rank in the top 5-10 in the league in sacks and takeaways in 2024.
183. Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL) – One of the more intriguing post-hype sleepers this year is undoubtedly Darnell Mooney. Mooney is a strong route runner and a popular breakout candidate just a year ago. The Justin Fields experiment made that dream come to a screaming halt, though, and Mooney chose to move on to the new-look Atlanta Falcons. If Kirk Cousins stays healthy, Mooney could provide a Jordan Addison-like season, although with fewer touchdowns. The offense is loaded with talent, so Mooney may be stuck as the fourth option, but the talent is there.
184. Kansas City Chiefs (DEF, KC) – The Chiefs need to improve their run defense, and they also lost L’Jarius Sneed in a trade with the Titans. Still, there is lots of upside for the Chiefs, especially with the new kickoff rules.
185. Houston Texans (DEF, HOU) – The Texans continue to be a team on the rise. Last season, their young playmakers on defense took a big step forward, and Will Anderson proved to be worth the third overall pick in last year’s draft.
186. Justin Tucker (K, BAL) – Justin Tucker is the best kicker in NFL history. He is on a prolific offense that just got better. Draft him, and you will never be upset with your kicker.
187. Philadelphia Eagles (DEF, PHI) – The Eagles draft defensive players like they are fantasy football managers. They go for the undervalued freak athletes, and this strategy has proven to almost always work. Jalen Carter’s fall in the draft proved to be the Eagles’ win as he absolutely dominated in his rookie season. Expect more of that this year.
188. Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA) – Jaylen Wright lands in the dream scheme for his success at the NFL level. He has a skill set similar to Raheem Mostert’s, and therein lies the problem. Wright is more of a dynasty stash and handcuff in 2024. He shouldn’t see much of the field if both Mostert and Achane are healthy. While that is an enormous IF, it is enough to have him be off the radar in 12-team redraft leagues.
189. Chicago Bears (DEF, CHI) – The Bears are a team on the rise on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best young secondaries in the league, and the addition of Montez Sweat was a revelation for their pass rush.
190. Buffalo Bills (DEF, BUF) – The Buffalo Bills have some questions on both sides of the ball, and with the expectation that their offense will take a step backwards, the defense may be on the field more than we are hoping for. They do have some intriguing kick returner options with the new kick return rules this year that could provide some boom weeks.
191. Brandon Aubrey (K, DAL) – Brandon Aubrey may be the next great kicker in the NFL. Last season, he hit 35 consecutive field goals and ended the season as the number one kicker in fantasy football.
192. Harrison Butker (K, KC) – Butker just signed an extension with the Chiefs after recording 12 field goals from 40 yards or more (five over 50 yards).
193. Miami Dolphins (DEF, MIA) – The Dolphins are a strong unit, but they saw a lot of their fantasy points come from fumble recoveries, where they recovered 79% of their fumbles forced as well as touchdowns (4). We should see some regression in 2024.
194. Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) – It is too early to write off Quentin Johnston entirely, especially when you look at the wide receiver group for the Chargers. That being said, it’s been all bad for the year-two wideout. He continues to struggle with focus drops and lacks the aggressiveness he was able to dominate with in college. In his first season, he was used as an outside wide receiver almost exclusively, and he struggled running a complete route tree. If he is able to take a step forward and be used out of the slot, we could see a revival of his career until we see any evidence of those things happening, though he is, at best, a late-round dart throw.
195. Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA) – Jonnu Smith took his talents to Miami this offseason. He may not be one of the top three targets, but there is potential for him if the Dolphins deal with injury. Smith had one of the best seasons of his career last season with the Falcons and joined one of the more explosive teams in the leagues. At the very least, his touchdown opportunity will undoubtedly go up, going from Desmond Ridder to Tua Tagovailoa.
196. Wan’Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) – We have yet to really see what a full-strength Wan’Dale Robinson can do. He showed some flashes in his rookie season before tearing his ACL, and in his first year back, he was able to improve his production while eclipsing 50 receiving yards in four games. With Daniel Jones’ return and Robinson having recovered from his injury for another year, we could see him step into the WR2 role for the Giants. Determining how much value that brings to your fantasy rosters is the only question.
197. Jake Elliott (K, PHI) – Jake Elliot missed only two kicks all last season. He also hit seven field goals beyond 50 yards, including one from 61 yards out.
198. Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) – I am less than bullish on Marvin Mims Jr. He should get the opportunity in the Broncos offense, but we have very little evidence that he can do anything with those chances. He may be better suited as a kick returner in the NFL. If you are in the late rounds of your draft and desperate for a wide receiver, you could do worse than Mims.
199. Jason Sanders (K, MIA) – Jason Sanders is a strong kicker who will get the scoring opportunities to help you win. He falls just below the elite tier of kickers and is a fine last pick of your draft.
200. D’Onta Foreman (RB, CLE) – D’Onta Foreman suffered a scary neck injury just a week ago that required him to be airlifted to the hospital. Thankfully, he returned to the team and should be fine well before week one. With Nick Chubb slated to miss an undetermined amount of time, Foreman should mix in with Jerome Ford to carry the load for the Browns this season. He has only ever seen more than 150 touches once in his career, so if he doesn’t take the goal line, his upside is somewhat limited.