Tier 12 (Continued)
126. Zack Moss (RB, CIN) – Zack Moss was thought to be the favorite to lead the Bengals’ backfield in 2024, but less than three days into training camp, that has changed. Chase Brown is now the leading man in Cincinnati. Moss will still have a role, and on a potent offense, there are worse gambles to take when you are this late in drafts. Similar to Brown, Moss does carry a three-down skill set, and he was efficient on the ground for the Colts in 2023. He is likely the lesser of a 60/40 split, but if Brown were to miss any time, he could flash some high-end RB2 weeks.
127. Curtis Samuel (WR, BUF) – Curtis Samuel has given all fantasy managers hope at one point or another, and in 2024, I know he is doing the same to some of you. He has only ever eclipsed the 800-yard receiving mark once in his career, and while he may do the same for the Bills, it isn’t likely. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir would be my bets to lead the wide receivers in targets. Samuel’s NFL impact should be much more significant than his fantasy one.
128. Geno Smith (QB, SEA) – Will the real Geno Smith please stand up? Geno went from QB5 in 2022 to QB19 last season. The truth is he aligns more with the latter. He has one of the best wide receiver trios in the league with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. With the addition of Ryan Grubbs, it’s safe to assume this offense will be getting a facelift. Geno is more of a bye-week fill-in than anything at this point.
129. Gus Edwards (RB, LAC) – Fantasy managers should invest in the Chargers’ backfield even if none of the choices seem like the correct answer. Enter Gus Edwards. Edwards appears to be the guy in LA this season. As things stand now, he and JK Dobbins are the only running backs getting first-team reps. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rookie sixth-rounder Kimani Vidal get some run with the ones by the end of the pre-season as well. The case for Edwards to lead this team in rushing is fairly obvious. He has spent his entire career being a highly efficient, bruising rusher with impressive vision. Not only that, but his primary competition, Dobbins, while more talented, is returning from a brutal torn Achilles injury, which history tells us is a death knell for running backs. His RB37 ADP is a reasonable cost, and he is a viable FLEX and bye-week fill-in if he is indeed handed the keys to the run game.
130. Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) – While there is virtually no chance Cole Kmet will see the 90 targets he received last season, his touchdown opportunity is on the rise. Kmet is also a great blocker, so while he may be a force in NFL terms, he will struggle to find consistency in 2024.
131. Trey Benson (RB, ARI) – Trey Benson is big, fast, and strong. He has all the skills to be an elite running back in the NFL. Drafted in the third round, he should be James Conner’s immediate backup in 2024. He is graded similarly to Zach Charbonnet as a handcuff+ running back. As long as Conner is healthy, I expect around 8-10 touches a game for Benson. His value surpasses even Conner’s if he does get a crack at the starting job at some point in the season, and he has the potential to be a league winner if Conner misses time. He is a priority handcuff in the late rounds of your drafts.
132. Keon Coleman (WR, BUF) – Keon Coleman is a raw prospect, but he has all the physical gifts to succeed at the next level. Coleman presents more dynasty value than redraft, as this year may be a bit of learn-on-the-job experience, and that is not something fantasy managers will want to invest in during their drafts.
133. Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ) – Aaron Rodgers has been begging for the spotlight for the last two seasons, and we are rapidly approaching his time to shine. Unfortunately for Rodgers, his return is going to be much better for Garrett Wilson than it will be for him. The reality is that the last time Rodgers was on the field, he was already showing signs of decline. Now at age 40, returning from a torn Achilles, he is a streamer at best for fantasy football purposes.
Tier 13
134. MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB) – MarShawn Lloyd enters the season fighting for the RB2 job in Green Bay. It’s a battle he should win against AJ Dillon. Lloyd brings a more versatile skillset and more explosiveness. The only real drawback with Lloyd from a skill set perspective is his history of fumbles in college (10 in 325 touches). He will have to wait to get significant, meaningful touches behind Josh Jacobs. Still, in the Matt LaFleur system, he should have an opportunity to see the field to spell Jacobs regularly if he can reign in his fumbling concerns, especially in high-leverage situations.
135. Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, NE) – The rookie wide receiver who is being slept on the most is Ja’Lynn Polk. He proved in college that he has great route running ability and sure hands. He fell in large part due to his lack of athleticism, and the Patriots may have found their top target earner for the foreseeable future. The early season could be a grind as the Patriots navigate Drake Maye’s development, but once the two can establish some chemistry, Polk could take off the final month of the season.
136. Josh Downs (WR, IND) – Josh Downs just suffered a high ankle sprain, which could derail some of his season, but the talent is there. He was one of the best route runners in the NFL as a rookie, and his hands are vise grips. If he is able to get healthy and get time with Anthony Richardson, he could be a surprise breakout candidate in 2024. Give Downs the Z receiver role and let him create for the Colts’ offense. The reason he falls this far is the Colts run-first and run-second game plan.
137. T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN) – T.J. Hockenson tore both his ACL and MCL last season. He is an excellent IR stash for leagues that allow it. When healthy, Hockenson is a top-ten tight-end talent. The only other question is what Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy are going to provide as far as target quality in 2024.
138. Drake Maye (QB, NE) – Drake Maye was the third pick in the NFL Draft and could be a major sleeper for fantasy football. As things stand now, Jacoby Brissett is atop the depth chart but I don’t see him holding that spot for long. Maye brings a do-it-all skill set with him from UNC. He has a strong arm and posted over 1,100 yards rushing while starting in college. His only real challenge is the young, unproven pass catchers for the Patriots. Some combination of DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker will be his primary weapons. It may be a bit of a grind, but if he starts within the first month of the season, he could have a late-season breakout.
139. Adonai Mitchell (WR, IND) – Adonai Mitchell is an athletic freak at wide receiver, and not only that, but he is a more than competent route runner. He may share the outside wide receiver work with Alec Pierce to start the season, but make no mistake, Mitchell is the playmaker. If the Colts did choose to air it out more, Mitchell could be a special player, but as things stand now, he is more of a dynasty stash than a redraft sleeper.
140. Blake Corum – Blake Corum was drafted by the Rams in the third round of this year’s draft, and he poses an immediate threat to Kyren Williams’ ceiling. He can make an impact in all phases of the game. Corum is a slightly more athletic version of Kyren Williams, and so his fit in the McVay system couldn’t be more perfect. You can expect Williams to command touches early and often, but Corum should start to eat into that playing time by mid-season. With all that in mind, Corum may need to rely on his nose for the endzone (58 rushing touchdowns at Michigan) if he wants to find high-end fantasy value in 2024.
141. Xavier Legette (WR, CAR) – Xavier Legette was a late breakout in college. He had one season of production in South Carolina and has a way to go as a route runner. The good news is he has a fair chance to win the WR2 role for the Panthers in his rookie season. The bad news is that that is not a very exciting role for fantasy football.
142. Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL) – Tyler Allgeier may not have Arthur Smith this season, but the Falcons have been lauding his praises in training camp thus far. I don’t think he approaches a 50/50 timeshare with Bijan Robinson, and he is likely to lose most of his goal-line work from last season. Still, he could be in line for around 40% of the touches for a significantly improved offense with an OC from the McVay coaching tree. Allgeier is one of the rare instances in which I would recommend that the manager with Robinson draft their own handcuff.
143. Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) – Luke Musgrave should lead the Packers’ tight ends in fantasy points. He is tied to a young quarterback on the rise in Jordan Love. There is a lot to like in Green Bay. That being said, Tucker Kraft will be a thorn in his side all season long. Musgrave has all the potential to be a tight end in fantasy, but unless Kraft gets hurt, he may never realize that potential.
144. Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN) – Jaleel McLaughlin had some surprising utility in 2023. His size (5’7″, 187 pounds) will limit how often he gets on the field, but he will serve as a change of pace back to Javonte Williams and the Broncos. He caught 31 of his 36 targets in his rookie season but wasn’t able to turn them into much as the Broncos offense faltered. In PPR leagues, you can expect to use McLaughlin as a bye week fill-in or a FLEX play if Williams misses time.
145. Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) – Nick Chubb has been one of the best running backs in all of football over his first five seasons. Unfortunately, he dealt with a catastrophic injury that destroyed his knee as he tore his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Chubb is more of a hope-and-pray selection in redraft leagues, but his talent means that if Chubb does step on the field, you need to pay attention. Reports out of training camp suggest that he could be active as early as week one, but you shouldn’t expect to see 100% of Nick Chubb until late in the season, if at all.
146. Will Levis (QB, TEN) – Will Levis is a game of extremes for fantasy managers. He is a big game hunter, but he’s a terrible shot. The Titans brought in Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd to help their young QB develop. If Levis continues to be aggressive, fantasy managers in two-quarterback leagues may reap the benefits. He has a strong arm and, when given the opportunity, has a big enough frame to be a bruising runner as well. Levis is not someone you should be considering in 1QB formats.
147. Antonio Gibson (RB, NE) – Antonio Gibson has never quite lived up to his potential. He has struggled with efficiency and ball security for most of his career in Washington. In 2024, he joins a new regime with the New England Patriots. The Pats offense was lacking in pass catchers last season, and they tried remedying that in a number of different ways, Gibson being one of them. He should get a shot to make an impact on third downs, and if Rhamondre Stevenson were to miss any time, Gibson could catapult to being a top-15 running back.
148. Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC) – The Chargers pass catchers are in flux with the departures of Mike Williams and, of course, Keenan Allen. The most senior wide receiver for the Chargers is Joshua Palmer. Palmer should be the number two option behind Ladd McConkey this year. We will need to see things shake out a little more in camp to have a clear picture of what that will look like in season, but you could do a lot worse than one of Justin Herbert’s top targets.
149. Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) – The Saints are not an offense I would recommend investing in outside of the superstars, but if you want a dart throw that can take one to the house any time he touches the ball, then Rashid Shaheed is your guy. He is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and has started to develop a more complete route tree. There is talent there; we just need Derek Carr to survive an NFL season unscathed to see much from it. Shaheed could also provide some value as a kick returner if your league scores return yards or return touchdowns.
Tier 14
150. Baltimore Ravens (DEF, BAL) – The Ravens should once again be a run-heavy team with a stout defense. Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith should lead one of the most valuable units for fantasy football.