Tier 8 (Continued)
61. Travis Kelce (TE, KC) – Travis Kelce has been the TE1 overall in six of the last eight seasons, but last season was not one of them. Still, he was producing at an elite pace when he was fully healthy. Kelce can’t do this forever, but he was not showing too many signs of slowing down. 2024 may be the youth takeover, but Kelce and Mark Andrews should still be able to post massive numbers in the final stages of their career.
62. Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) – Mark Andrews could fall anywhere from TE1 to TE6. He has dealt with injury concerns, but when he is on the field, he is truly one of the elite fantasy football tight ends in the league. It will be interesting to see how OC Todd Monken implements Andrews and Isaiah Likely this season as they have sights on a late-season run. My rough projections have Andrews accruing 789 yards and seven touchdowns.
Tier 9
63. Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) – Terry McLaurin has been a victim of poor quarterback play his entire career. He brings speed and elite route running to a Commanders’ offense that needs him with the ball in his hands to succeed. While McLaurin can expect an upgrade at quarterback, he is still a rookie and a mobile one. He should continue to flirt with WR2/WR3 production in his age-28 season.
64. Stefon Diggs (WR, HOU) – We started to see glimpses of Stefon Diggs’ decline last season. He is still a strong route runner, but his usage did change for the first time in a long time. Diggs joins a crowded wide receiver room in Houston and should compete with Tank Dell for the WR2 role on the team. It’s hard to project his usage, but don’t be surprised if we don’t see the Stefon Diggs of 2022 again. The risk is much higher than in years past as he enters his age-31 season, but the good news is that this has already been baked into his cost.
65. Diontae Johnson (WR, CAR) – Diontae Johnson could be in line for a breakout season in full PPR leagues. Now the lead target for Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers, Johnson should see 130+ targets, which, even with his history of drops, means fantasy success. Johnson, with the help of OC Dave Canales, has a chance to reclaim some of his 2021 form. The Panthers are still a team near the bottom of the league, so don’t expect Diontae Johnson to be a surprise WR1, but he is an excellent option at his WR38 ADP.
66. James Cook (RB, BUF) – James Cook wasn’t the prettiest person in the bar; he was just the only one left. One of the few running backs who stayed healthy last season, Cook benefitted from tremendous offensive line play in Buffalo on his way to over 1,500 total yards. The concern with Cook is that he needs to be more present near the goal line, totaling only two touchdowns on the ground. The Bills didn’t add any game-breakers to their running back room, but they did select Ray Davis in the fourth round of the draft. Davis is a sturdy back who had an impressive collegiate career. Coming in at 5’8″ and 220 pounds, Davis has a chance to eat into Cook’s early down touches and any scoring opportunities that Cook may have had.
67. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be an interesting player to watch in the new Seahawks offense. He has the skill set to win at every level of the field but has a limited ceiling while competing with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He also has to navigate a new offense in year two and hopes that Geno Smith can improve over his 2023 results. JSN has a wide range of outcomes this year, but to be a true league-winning option like his profile implies, he would need an injury to Metcalf, who should be the first option for Smith.
68. Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) – Kenneth Walker has been relatively consistent in his first two seasons in the NFL. He has filled the early down and goal line role for the Seahawks thus far, and last season, he continued to dominate rushing opportunities, even with the addition of Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet’s impact in the passing game as a blocker and receiver will limit Walker’s ability to be a three-down player. Still, with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in town, there may be more scoring opportunities and a faster-paced offense than we are used to in Seattle. Walker is fairly priced in fantasy drafts right now, going right around RB17 at the back end of round four.
69. Jayden Reed (WR, GB) – The Packers’ wide receivers are an enigma for the 2024 season. Jayden Reed is the most talented but is best suited to play slot wide receiver, which limits his ability to get on the field. He was a touchdown machine in 2023, and while that is likely to regress this season, Reed still has the potential to take another step. Reed was only on the field in two wide sets twice during the entire season, which is a staggeringly low number. If he wants to jump into WR2 territory, he will need to establish himself as an option in those scenarios. He is a like not love for redraft.
70. Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) – Dak Prescott had one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. CeeDee Lamb’s emergence as one of the best wide receivers in football, along with the breakout of tight end Jake Ferguson, helped Dak become one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Dak had a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season while throwing for over 4,500 yards. He is due for some regression, but the Cowboys are returning many of their weapons, and Dak looks to be locked in for another top-10 season. The two things that move Dak to the back half of QB1 territory are the concerns with Dallas’ run game as well as their still stout defense.
71. Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) – Chicago has found its quarterback in Caleb Williams. They also seem dead set on not taking three-plus years to find out just how good Williams can be, surrounding him with the best weapons a number-one pick has ever had. He is still a rookie, so the early season could come with its bumps and bruises, but Williams can play, and Shane Waldron’s system is pass-heavy enough to see Williams support each of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Managers may be best off if they pair Williams with a veteran with a soft start-of-season schedule.
Tier 10
72. Austin Ekeler (RB, WAS) – Austin Ekeler had a difficult 2023 season. He dealt with a high ankle sprain as well as the loss of Justin Herbert for a brief stint. Ultimately, it led to Ekeler failing to hit the 4.0 yards per carry mark for the first time in his career. He enters his age-29 season, an obstacle in its own right, playing for the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have Brian Robinson, who is the betting favorite to take the early down work, as well as second-year player Chris Rodriguez. Neither have been difference makers in the passing game which is a perfect situation for the aging Ekeler. In full PPR leagues, his receptions alone make him a viable flex option, and if he can show glimpses of his former self, an RB2. If you end up punting the running back position, I like pairing Ekeler with Brian Robinson in rounds eight and nine, as both can bring value at their ADP, but more on that later.
73. Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) – Veterans on the Move should be the tagline for the running back position in 2024 because here we are again. Aaron Jones takes over the lead back role in Minnesota, and as things stand now, he is the only viable option they have at the position. Similar to Ekeler, Jones is at a dangerous age for running backs (29). Jones may have more juice in the tank than Ekeler does at this point, but he has battled injuries for most of his career. The Vikings have a new signal caller at the helm, and whether it is Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy, it will be a downgrade for 2024. Scoring opportunities may be limited for Jones, but he has the skill set to be involved on all three downs. My current projections have him with 181 carries and 63 targets.
74. David Montgomery (RB, DET) – The thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs lightning, David Montgomery showed everyone last year just how potent the Lions’ rushing attack can be. In just 14 games last season, Montgomery was able to rack up over 1,000 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Detroit has the best offensive line in the NFL, which makes Montgomery’s sixth-round ADP such a great value. The lack of work in the passing game hurts, especially in PPR leagues, but he should see over 200 carries in a high-octane offense. While he currently ranks as my RB22, his ceiling would be much higher if Gibbs were to miss any time because he has a three-down skill set when he is called upon in that capacity.
75. James Conner (RB, ARI) – James Conner is the running back everyone wants to overlook. The issue is that he keeps on producing. Conner was an RB1 in 6 of his 13 games played last season and had two more games as an RB2. The Cardinals get Kyler Murray back to full health in 2024, and they will benefit from rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. demanding the attention of defenses. When it comes to fantasy, the Cardinals have a dream scenario: a potent offense and a defense in the bottom half of the league. Rookie Trey Benson is currently in a battle for the RB3 position in training camp, which makes me believe Conner could be headed for his second consecutive thousand-yard rushing season in 2024.
76. Chris Godwin (WR, TB) – Chris Godwin has been mostly a disappointment since his 2018 breakout season. Stuck as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 most of his career, Godwin has some hope heading into 2024. The talk out of training camp is that Godwin will get more time out of the slot, a role that led to him having the most success he has ever had in the NFL. It remains to be seen if the Buccaneers will deliver on that promise, and Godwin is approaching the wide receiver age cliff. There’s a lot of potential, and the acquisition cost is low. He is a player I am rostering in most of my redraft leagues.
77. Zamir White (RB, LV) – Zamir White has been a popular name this offseason, but it’s hard to think this isn’t Alexander Mattison all over again. White had a small stretch of opportunity to end the year (weeks 15-18). In that time, he didn’t disappoint, averaging 15.18 fantasy points per game. The issue is that all of that production came from volume. He isn’t a factor in the passing game. He will likely cede those snaps to Alexander Mattison or, more likely, rookie Dylan Laube. Additionally, there may be limited scoring opportunities available for the Raiders in 2024. White’s ADP is still climbing, so while he is slightly overpriced in drafts now, he is more than likely going to be an even worse value three weeks from now.
78. Najee Harris (RB, PIT) – Najee Harris has slowly seen his production dip in each of his first three seasons. The Steelers’ offense is going through a massive overhaul, and Jaylen Warren’s emergence has made Harris’ future in fantasy football bleak. The silver lining to the Steelers not picking up the fifth-year option on his contract is that they are likely to lean heavily on their run game, feeding Harris as their lead back. Even with Warren proving to be the more explosive option, Harris led the backfield with 255 carries to Warren’s 149. He should be locked into another season of over 250 carries in 2024 with an additional 30+ targets as well. If you are looking for a high-floor player, Harris fits the bill.
79. Evan Engram (TE, JAC) – Evan Engram led the league in targets last season and nearly broke the tight end receptions record. He is one of the returning weapons for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars and has some sleeper TE1 overall value. He is being drafted as the TE8 right now and finished as the TE2 last season. He has one of the safest floors at the position and is an easy pick at cost.
80. Chase Brown (RB, CIN) – In maybe the least surprising news out of training camp, Chase Brown, not Zack Moss, looks to be in the driver’s seat to lead the Bengals’ backfield in 2024. Brown is a sturdy back, measuring in at 5’10” and 215 pounds. He also boasts a three-down skill set that should serve him well behind in an already potent offense. His rookie season gave us very little to work with, but in his senior season in college (University of Illinois), he posted over 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns. Doing it in the NFL may prove more difficult, but the opportunity should be there for Brown. Moss saw just over 200 touches last season for the Colts, and while I don’t see him hitting that number, he should eat enough into Brown’s workload to keep them both capped as low-end RB2 to mid-range RB3 options for fantasy football.