Tier 1
1. Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) – The race to be the RB1 in Fantasy Football has four names in 2024: Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Breece Hall. Hall is one of the most electric players in the NFL. He is one of the very few workhorse running backs left in fantasy football with his rare combination of vision, speed, and footwork. He finished last season as the RB2 overall in PPR leagues in just his first year back from a torn ACL. Hall had only one carry inside the five-yard line last season, and no, that is not a typo. The Jets’ heavy investment in their offensive line this offseason and the return of Aaron Rodgers both bode well for Hall’s scoring opportunities in 2024. He has the least competition for touches of the big three running backs and should be a near lock for 250 carries and 90+ targets. While Garrett Wilson needs Aaron Rodgers to be elite in fantasy football, Hall can do it on his own.
2. Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN) – Ja’Marr Chase had his first 100-reception season in 2023. He continues to be one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and we could see him take another step in 2024. Offensive line concerns and trying to keep Burrow healthy have forced the Bengals to get creative with Chase’s usage. He has seen his average depth-of-target drop each of the last three seasons as they start to use him on slant and dagger routes significantly more often than his rookie season. For PPR leagues, this can bring tremendous value. Chase has never finished higher than WR5; this year, that changes.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) – The meteoric rise of Amon-Ra St. Brown over the last few seasons has been something special to witness. He is the safest of the elite tier of wide receivers. He posted 15 or more fantasy points in 16 games last season, if you include the playoffs. He caught nearly 120 passes while eclipsing 1,500 yards. St. Brown isn’t likely to be posting double-digit touchdowns, but in full PPR leagues, he doesn’t need to. I am comfortable drafting him anywhere in my top five picks this year.
4. CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) – CeeDee Lamb finished second in fantasy points per game, catching 135 balls and accruing over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is an elite route runner and an alpha wide receiver. Lamb is one of the few candidates to lead the league in receiving in 2024. Right now, the only question about him is how long he will hold out with his contract concerns.
5. Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF) – I know the townspeople are coming for me already. Ultimately, I won’t fight you if you have CMC at one. The point differential between him and Breece, in my rough projections so far, has them less than a point apart. Christian McCaffrey is the best player on one of the best offenses in the league. That should be enough for you, but if you’re still reading, you can have confidence in the fact that McCaffrey almost never left the field last season. He played less than 75% of snaps only four times. We are talking running backs, so injury is always on the table, but he has put “injury-prone” tag in his rearview while racking up an average of 353.5 opportunities per season across his last two seasons. The only real reason he isn’t at the top of this list is that he is entering his age-28 season, and the Niners have the benefit of having plenty of superstars to allocate touches to keep CMC fresh for a late-season run.
Tier 2
6. Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) – Garrett Wilson is my favorite dark horse candidate to lead the league in receiving yards this year. He is the only player in NFL history to earn 300+ targets in his first two seasons. His catchable target rate in the last two seasons ranked 65th and 92nd. Enter Aaron Rodgers. Even if Rodgers is 50% of who we are used to seeing, that is a massive step up for Wilson. You can snag him at round 1/2 turn, and that is a screaming value.
7. Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA) – Tyreek Hill has been an absolute menace the last two seasons with the Dolphins. He saw incredible efficiency last season (3.8 yards per reception). He also benefitted from Jaylen Waddle’s injury. I do expect a slight regression and loss of volume for Hill this year, but not enough to knock him too far down. Draft him confidently and enjoy the ride.
8. Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL) – Free Bijan! Free Atlanta! Well, the fantasy football world’s cries were heard this offseason as Arthur Smith moved on to Pittsburgh. The new regime of Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson has made it abundantly clear that they know what they have in Bijan Robinson. Morris comes from the McVay coaching tree, and that has historically meant good things for running backs. The breakout could be here for Robinson. Similar to Breece Hall, an inept offense and odd time share limited Robinson’s touches in scoring situations (2). In 2024, the Falcons get a massive upgrade at quarterback in Kirk Cousins and should be favorites to win the division. Robinsoon lacks the speed of Hall, but he makes up for it with his lateral agility and football IQ. The final player in this tier for a reason, Robinson is likely the only player left who should see 200+ carries and 90+ targets. That’s the good news; the bad news, or should I say annoying news, is that Tyler Allgeier is not going away, and while a 53/47% split isn’t likely, I doubt we see Allgeier fall below 40% of the carries. That is why he falls to three on this list.
9. Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) – Justin Jefferson played in only ten games last season, yet he kept his 1,000-yard season streak alive. He is far and away the best wide receiver in the NFL right now. He falls slightly here because his entire season will be quarterbacked by one of Sam Darnold or rookie JJ McCarthy. For NFL purposes, both signal callers will be OK, but for fantasy, we should expect inconsistency and less scoring opportunity. Jefferson has proven to be elite even without cousins, so don’t be surprised if he surpasses this WR6 ranking.
10. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) – Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the highest-graded rookie prospects I have ever seen. I graded him just above Ja’Marr Chase in the offseason process, and he landed in a situation where he should immediately demand targets from Kyler Murray. Harrison should contend for 150 targets in year one for a team that will be throwing all season long due to their uninspiring defense. He has the highest ADP of any rookie in recent memory, but the juice is worth the squeeze in this instance. I am drafting him in round two with zero hesitations.
Tier 3
11. A.J. Brown (WR, PHI) – A.J. Brown looked like he was going to break records on his way to becoming the WR1 overall last season before his week ten bye. After that, it was a different story. The Eagles’ implosion is the reason that Brown benefits from the fast-paced scheme of Kellen Moore, and that is something we should all be grateful for. There is a good chance Brown will get moved all around the formation this year, and that bodes well for his fantasy value. He is an easy pick at his current WR9 ADP.
12. Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) – Saquon Barkley made headlines this offseason when he chose to leave New York to join his former division rival. Barkley has had an up-and-down career thus far, dealing with injuries and atrocious offensive line play. Barkley is unlikely to be the true focal point of this offense like he has been in the past, but that may be better for the now 27-year-old running back. The reduction in volume isn’t a death knell for Barkley, who should see increased efficiency and more scoring opportunities. This season could be a revelation for the veteran running back. OC Kellen Moore has consistently been in the top five in pace of play. To say that his situation has improved would be an understatement. The Giants were the 30th-ranked offensive line last season, according to PFF; the Eagles ranked third. Barkley is headed toward more scoring opportunities and has proven to be a bulldozer in those situations, with a 66% success rate on runs inside the five-yard line. For reference, Jalen Hurts had 15 rushing touchdowns last season, 13 of which came from within three yards of the goal line. My current projections have him at 252 carries, 78 targets, and 10 total touchdowns.
13. Puka Nacua (WR, LAR) – Puka Nacua was what dreams were made of last season. He set rookie records and established himself as a top-ten wide receiver for years to come. Paired with the wide receiver kingmaker himself, Matthew Stafford, once again, Puka should continue to build on his remarkable rookie year. He averaged 2.5 fantasy points per touch last season, and even if we saw the best season of his career last year, it is well within his range of outcomes to eclipse the 1,200-yard mark again this year. Puka is here to stay, and you can draft him with confidence.
14. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) – Jahmyr Gibbs had a slow start to the season in 2023. That didn’t stop him from finishing the season as a top-10 running back. From week seven on, Gibbs produced six different weeks as a top-three running back. He did this while playing over 70% of the snaps only twice. The Lions offense is a perfect fit for Gibbs’ skillset. The only reason he doesn’t find himself in tier one in redraft leagues is the presence of David Montgomery, who was impressive in his own right. Likely in a near 50/50 timeshare with Montgomery once again, he may not sound appealing to draft at the round one/two turn, but in this case, I am buying. For Gibbs, efficiency is the name of the game, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and scoring on every 21.3 touches. Not only that, but he had 10 rushes of 20 yards or more and was able to score from outside the ten-zone on five of his touchdowns. My current projections have him sitting at 187 carries and 103 targets. The new age Alvina Kamara is here, and you can be confident in spending a late first-rounder on him in 2024.
15. Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) – Jonathan Taylor is coming off of two tough seasons. Between injury and contract negotiations/holdouts, the last time we saw an entire season of JT was 2021—a season where he eclipsed 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns. Taylor gets to continue the prime of his career in the Shane Steichen offense and do it alongside second-year breakout candidate Anthony Richardson. Taylor and Richardson played only two snaps together last season, but the duo could be the best-rushing pair in the league in 2024. While it is true Richardson may eat into Taylor’s goal line carries, his injury history suggests that Taylor will be asked to shoulder more of the load in goal-to-go situations. Taylor is an excellent pick near the top of the second round.
16. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAC) – Travis Etienne may be underrated right now, even by me. He averaged over 16.5 fantasy points per game last season with an atrocious offensive line. He isn’t likely to see a massive upgrade in that department, but the volume should hold firm for Etienne in 2024. He averaged 20 opportunities per game and shared a backfield with only Tank Bigsby, who was uninspiring in his rookie season. An improved offense this season means more scoring opportunities for an already double-digit touchdown scorer. There are a lot of new faces in Jacksonville, but I would not be surprised to see the Etienne to be a focal point of this offense. Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. can take the top off of defenses, which should hopefully create more opportunities for Etienne to make plays in space. Currently, Etienne has a mid-second round ADP, and while he isn’t likely to shatter that value, he is one of the safer options at running back in this range with one of the highest upsides.
Tier 4
17. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) – Somehow Michael Pittman Jr. is always slept on. He may not have the top five wide out in a range of outcomes, but he should be locked into the top 15 position. Pittman should secure anywhere from 130-150 targets in this Colts offense and should be the only highly invested pass catcher from the Indianapolis offense. I expect more scoring opportunities in 2024, and he is also likely to surpass that 1,000-yard receiving threshold we all care about so much.
18. Drake London (WR, ATL) – Drake London is in a make-or-break season. With all the talent in the world, London has been at or near the top of dynasty managers’ wide receiver targets the last few seasons. The problem has always been who is getting him the ball. The Falcons remedied that this year by adding Kirk Cousins and eventually going on to draft Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick. Now, regardless of whether you think the pick was wise (It wasn’t), London’s future looks bright with competent quarterback play. Expect London to set the fantasy world on fire in his first season with the new regime.
19. Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) – It is challenging to nail down a spot for Brandon Aiyuk right now, with trade rumors swirling. With that being said, Aiyuk is a bonafide superstar. He was one of the most efficient pass catchers in the NFL last season while competing for targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. If he can land somewhere that will give him 135+ targets, we could see a WR1 overall season. The favorites to land Aiyuk right now seem to be the Steelers and the Browns. Both teams could get Aiyuk close to those numbers, but both also have worse quarterback play. If you are drafting soon, know this. Aiyuk is a baller and can find success in any of his three current options to play football in 2024. At a WR15 ADP you should be buying every single time.
20. Malik Nabers (WR, NYG) – The Giants drafted Malik Nabers sixth overall in the hopes that he can become Odell Beckham 2.0 for them this season. With Daniel Jones’s return and Saquon Barkley’s departure, look for Nabers to feast in full-point PPR leagues. He should see upwards of 130 targets in this offense, and even if Daniel Jones’s arm strength can be limiting, Nabers makes his money after the catch, accruing over 500 yards after the catch in his final collegiate season.