Tier 4 (Continued)
21. Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) – Isiah Pacheco proved many of his doubters wrong last season. He turned himself into a do-it-all player for one of the league’s most productive offenses. The Chiefs also seemed to think so with their moves or lack thereof to address the backfield during the offseason. With little to no competition for touches in 2024, Pacheco is heading for the best season of his career. One of the most promising indicators of Pacheco’s development, especially in PPR leagues, is his usage in the passing game. He went from 0.8 targets per game in his rookie season to 3.5 targets per game in 2023. In games where Pacheco saw 70% snap share, he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. He did this for the first time in week 12 of last season and did it in every game but one from week 12 through the Super Bowl. The arrow is pointing up for Pacheco. Grab him in the late second round and secure your RB1.
22. Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) – Jaylen Waddle has seen his production dip each of the last few seasons, but his efficiency metrics are firm. He might not be the target hog he was during his rookie season, with Tyreek Hill leading the way, but Waddle has a chance to re-emerge as an elite fantasy weapon in 2024. Last season, he was hampered by injury, and while that may always be a part of his game, he should be locked into 125 targets on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
23. Nico Collins (WR, HOU) – The Texans’ breakout season rested largely on Nico Collins’ shoulders. He posted an impressive 1,297 receiving yards on 80 receptions and eight touchdowns. Collins is a superstar in the making. He has proven to be an elite route runner while also having the physicality and football IQ to be a team’s WR1. The addition of Stefon Diggs may hurt his overall volume, but Diggs showed signs of slowing down last season and may eat more into Tank Dell’s value than he will Collins’.
Tier 5
24. Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Lamar Jackson is the most exciting quarterback in the NFL right now. He posted the best passing yardage total of his career and his third-highest rushing total on his way to another MVP award. He led the position in fantasy points per dropback while also playing the most games in one season of his career. Todd Monken’s offense suits Jackson well, and in year two of the system, I am projecting another step forward. Baltimore’s top wide receiver Zay Flowers showed that he still has more to bring to the Ravens offense. Not only that, but Isaiah Likely had a mini breakout in Mark Andrews’s absence. Oh yeah, and Derrick Henry arrived in Baltimore to give the Ravens, an already efficient run game, the most dynamic rushing attack in the NFL. Henry may steal some touchdowns here or there, but the duo should benefit from each other as one, Henry, will rely on touchdowns, and the other, Jackson, can rack up rushing yards.
25. Sam LaPorta (TE, DET) – Sam LaPorta stood in rarified air last season, ranking in the top five in the league in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He scored 10 touchdowns in a year, whereas the next-best tight end scored six. Oh, and he did it as a rookie. It’s true that touchdowns are not the most sticky of stats, but to do it as a rookie and in an offense that stayed almost entirely the same heading into 2024, LaPorta is the truth. His role in the offense is secure, and even with his round three ADP, I have no problem pulling the trigger.
26. Josh Allen (QB, BUF) – Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in fantasy football in four of the last five seasons, falling just 18.8 fantasy points short in 2022 of making it five in a row. He has a fair chance to do it again this season, but there are some questions about who his WR1 will be now that Stefon Diggs has moved on. Keon Coleman is not a Diggs replacement, even for the most generous of analysts, either in skill level or play style. Allen also benefitted last season from James Cook’s lack of power as he bulldozed his way to 15 rushing touchdowns, a mark he is not likely to repeat in 2024. Buffalo’s situation on offense is eerily similar to the Chiefs of last season. Dalton Kincaid will need to step up in a significant way while also staying healthy all season for Allen and the Bills to remain one of the top offenses in football. That being said, Allen brings a lot more rushing value than Mahomes, which should keep him in the elite tier of fantasy quarterbacks once again.
27. Trey McBride (TE, ARI) – Trey McBride was on pace for just under 1,200 yards last season from week six on. You could easily make a case that he should be at the top of this list. Heading into 2024, McBride now has a fully healthy Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. to take the defense’s attention away. While it’s true the target pie gets smaller with Harrison, he and McBride don’t generally work in the same areas of the field, and they should complement each other well. McBride is a great value right now, and I wouldn’t be afraid to grab him anytime after round three.
28. Mike Evans (WR, TB) – There may not be a more reliable wide receiver in the NFL than Mike Evans. He has posted at least 1,000 yards in 10 seasons (his entire career) and has averaged just under double-digit touchdowns per season. The Hall of Fame is calling, but Evans isn’t quite ready to go. In year 11, he returns with Baker Mayfield, who revived his career in Tampa Bay last season. As long as Evans is healthy he is an easy pick in drafts. His ADP sits between WR14-16, and you can rest easy floating Evans into your WR2 spot on your roster.
29. Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) – When it comes to Patrick Mahomes, there is very little to say. He is likely to go down as the greatest ever to play the game. For fantasy football, he is somewhere in the same conversation. Last year was the worst non-rookie season of his career, posting over 4,000 total yards and nearly 30 touchdowns as the QB8. Those are still incredible numbers, especially when given the context that his wide receiver core was absent anyone who has surpassed 700 receiving yards in a single season. His only viable option was Travis Kelce, who dealt with injuries on and off. Luckily for Mahomes this season, he welcomes Marquise “Hollywood” Brown as well as rookie Xavier Worthy, and for at least part of the season, he will have his top receiver from 2023, Rashee Rice. The Chiefs made all the right moves to surround Mahomes with weapons that are an excellent fit for what the Chiefs do best. Mahomes is due for a bounce-back season in 2024. My current projections have him with just over 5,000 total yards and 38 total touchdowns.
30. Chris Olave (WR, NO) – Everyone is waiting for the Chris Olave breakout, but I am tentative to say it’s coming this year. Derek Carr struggles to push the ball downfield and has dealt with severe injuries in nearly every season in the league. The Saints offense has two players you are investing in, Olave and Alvin Kamara, in spite of Carr. He should see the volume surpass the 1,000-yard mark, and he is able to create separation at will. Olave is a low-ceiling, high-floor player in full PPR leagues. I wouldn’t trust him as my WR1, but WR2 feels right.
31. DJ Moore (WR, CHI) – DJ Moore got the richest wide receiver contract in Bears history just last week. The team has tied him to Caleb Williams for the next four years. That is good for dynasty and redraft. DJ Moore should lead the Bears in targets this season as the do-it-all pass catcher. He had the best season of his career last year, catching nearly 100 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, which was the most in his career. Chicago’s offense should be making a lot more trips to the red zone this year as well, which elevates Moore’s ceiling.
32. DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) – The Eagles’ offense stalled out for the second half of last year, and while AJ Brown saw a drop in production, that was when DeVonta Smith shined brightest. Smith recorded four games of over 15 fantasy points in the final seven games, and his usage was far more consistent. Kellen Moore now takes over as OC in Philadelphia and his fast paced system and creative play calling could mean big things for Smith. He will always have a bit of a limited ceiling, but Smith is one of the best WR2s in fantasy football. He could catapult into the elite tier of pass catcher should Brown miss any time.
33. Anthony Richardson (QB, IND) – Anthony Richardson is everyone’s favorite breakout fantasy football player, and for good reason. Last season, Richardson led the league in fantasy points per dropback and averaged more fantasy points per game than peak Patrick Mahomes. Now, zoom out a little, and we realize it was an incredibly small sample size, and that is why he isn’t already the QB1. The range of outcomes for Richardson in 2024 is wider than any player in the league. His upside is palpable, but he has a long history of injuries, and he has minimal experience as a starting quarterback, whether it be in college or the NFL. I don’t always say high-risk players are worth it, but for Richardson, I am all the way in. If he plays an entire season, he is, at worst, a top-five quarterback, and that is worth the gamble.
Tier 6
34. Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) – Alvin Kamara is in the middle of some contract back-and-forth, but assuming that doesn’t keep him off the field, he looks primed to head into his age-29 season as a back-end RB1. His efficiency continues to dip, but the volume he sees in a Derek Carr-led offense makes him a reasonably safe option at the position. Kamara shares the backfield with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller. Miller continues to battle injuries, and Williams looks to be on the wrong side of the age cliff. Kamara was on pace for 112 targets last season and 235 carries, a mark he has only ever eclipsed one other time in his career. He is currently being drafted around RB16, which is an excellent value for what could be his final trip to RB1 territory.
35. DK Metcalf (WR, SEA) – There may not be a more physically dominant wide receiver in the NFL than DK Metcalf. Seemingly locked in as a high-end WR2, Metcalf still has more to prove in 2024. The new OC, Ryan Grubb, could help him get there. We should see a transition from the typical run-heavy scheme we are used to in Seattle, and with that, Metcalf has a chance for a breakout as he enters some of the apex years for wide receiver production. The one question that still needs answering is which Geno Smith we will get this year and if we could see Sam Howell get some run this season.
36. Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) – Kyle Pitts’ season has finally arrived, for real this time. The upgrade from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins cannot be overstated. Cousins’ former tight end, T.J. Hockenson, averaged 937 receiving yards and five and a half touchdowns per season. He has spent the early parts of his career with poor quarterback play and learning parts of the wide receiver position. This year, it all comes together. Pitts has eyes on the best tight end in football this year, and it is well within his range of outcomes. Being drafted as the TE7 in redraft leagues makes him a slam dunk. Draft him confidently and thank me later.
37. Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) – Jalen Hurts at QB5 is an affront to many fantasy managers, and I understand if you are rage-quitting your browser window. He is in the top tier for a reason, but there are reasons to expect a decrease in production in 2024. First of all, his all-pro center, Jason Kelce, retired, and even a good replacement option needs to make up for the veteran experience and chemistry that Kelce brought. Secondly, the Eagles brought in Saquon Barkley to replace D’Andre Swift. The upgrade is a significant change when it comes to Hurts’ goal line scoring potential. For context, Barkley saw a 66% success rate on converting runs inside the five; Swift, in that same metric, saw a 33% success rate. Why does this matter for Jalen Hurts? 25% of his fantasy production last season came from his rushing touchdowns (15). The tush push has been kind to the Eagles quarterback. If you create some modest adjustments and bring Hurts down to his season average for rushing touchdowns without Swift (9), he would have been QB5 last season. Checks notes, that math is mathing.
38. Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) – Derrick Henry’s move to the Baltimore Ravens is one of the more intriguing moves of the 2024 offseason for fantasy football. The Ravens now sport the epitome of thunder and lightning in their run game with Henry and Lamar Jackson. Despite a somewhat down season for the Titans, he still finished as a top-10 RB in PPR leagues. Of course, concerns about his age and wear and tear exist, but Henry has been an outlier for most of his career, and in 2024, with a new team and scheme, he looks to be heading toward another premier season. Efficiency continues to drop season to season for the former Titan. Still, he is expected to be the primary ball carrier and goal-line option for the Ravens, which should see him eclipse double-digit touchdown numbers for the seventh time in his career.
39. De’Von Achane (RB, MIA) – De’Von Achane is one of the biggest question marks at the running back position. His talent isn’t the question; his usage and health are. Achane averaged an eye-popping 7.77 yards per carry last season while also scoring a touchdown on roughly every 12 touches. There really isn’t a comparable player we have seen in the NFL. Some combination of Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson comes to mind, and that is rarified air. In his roughly 11 games played last season, Achane saw 50% of the snaps just four times. The questions about his health are legitimate. We have never seen anything like Achane succeed with any consistency, and it is the only reason he falls to RB11 in ADP and my rankings. The only real question you need to ask yourself is how risk-averse you are as a fantasy football manager. Drafting the RB1 overall historically tells us you have a massive advantage over your league mates, and Achane is one of the few players outside of the top five that has that in his range of outcomes. He is similar to Jahmyr Gibbs in that he is likely capped in the 12-15 touch per game range if he wants to play an entire season, so his sharing the backfield with veteran Raheem Mostert is not that alarming. Typically, slotting in at the end of round two, Achane is a gamble I am taking if I go with an elite WR in round one.
40. Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) – Dalton Kincaid could be heading toward a breakout season in 2024. Kincaid currently is the favorite to lead this team in targets after the departure of Stefon Diggs. While the Bills may struggle more than they have in years past, Kincaid has an excellent chance to eclipse the 91 targets he saw in his rookie season. He will, of course, not be alone, as Dawson Knox will get playing time but should be filling the in-line tight-end role more than Kincaid.