Tier 11 (Continued)
101. Javonte Williams (RB, DEN) – The rumors of Javonte Williams’ death are greatly exaggerated. Williams, in his second year back from an ACL tear, should be the leading rusher for the Denver Broncos. The difficult part for fantasy purposes is trying to predict just how much work Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin will siphon off. Luckily, for redraft purposes, these questions have suppressed his ADP to a very palatable RB34. Williams has all the traits to be an elite fantasy running back. Outside of last season, he showed incredible tackle-breaking and forced-missed tackle ability, setting the single-season record for the latter in his rookie year. Williams plays with a violent run style, which could mean he is better suited for around 200 touches rather than the prototypical workhorse load of 300+ to be at his best.
102. Tony Pollard (RB, TEN) – Tony Pollard gets a new contract to join the Titans’ new regime led by Will Levis. After suffering a brutal leg injury in 2022, he returned last season to post the least efficient season of his career while also seeing over 300 opportunities for the first time. He will share the backfield with Tyjae Spears, which is projected to be a near 50/50 split as things stand now. Both Pollard and Spears are smaller-framed runners who benefit from not being the guy to lead a backfield, so the pairing should prove an interesting season-long evaluation. If I am betting on a running back out of Tennessee, I am going with Spears over Pollard.
103. Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAC) – Trevor Lawrence had some unfortunate touchdown variances in 2023. Outside of that, he was consistent with what he was able to do in 2022 when he finished the year as the QB8. The Jaguars added weapons in Brian Thomas Jr., an X receiver with a nose for the endzone, and everyone’s favorite overhyped wide receiver, Gabe Davis. Even with the loss of Calvin Ridley, Lawrence should see more of those touchdowns being converted in 2024. The final piece that could catapult Lawrence to the heights he was at as a prospect would be to cut down on turnovers. He has averaged 13 interceptions and seven fumbles lost per season. I don’t see that being fixed this year.
104. Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) – Tua Tagovailoa had, far and away, the best season of his career last year. It helps when you have one of the best wide receivers in football, of course. The challenging part about navigating Tua as your fantasy quarterback is that he doesn’t get any floor with his rushing ability. He needs to either throw for 300 yards or have three touchdowns in a game to sustain high-end production. With Hill and a healthy Waddle, he could repeat what he was able to accomplish last season, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
105. Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL) – Jake Ferguson slipped into the TE1 conversation due to a massive workload, seeing 102 targets last season. He has a chance to see a similar workload this year. Ferguson’s upside is limited, though. He is one of the safer options if you want to lock in 8-12 points each week, but he rarely gives you more than that.
106. Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB) – Dontayvion Wicks is my personal favorite of the Packers’ young wide receivers. He is a premier route runner and navigates spacing and body control well. I would not be surprised to see Wicks lead this team in all receiving categories in 2024. That being said, Wicks has a long way to go to earn that role. Currently, he sits as the WR4 on the depth chart. His current ADP of WR65 is going to rise as we get further along in the preseason, but if it holds anywhere near that, he is a screaming buy.
107. Kirk Cousins (QB, ATL) – Kirk Cousins may be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football. He has been a QB1 in six of his last eight seasons, minus last year, when he tore his Achilles when he was on pace to be the QB6. It’s true that his recovery and schedule to start the season are not instilling confidence in fantasy managers. His schedule in its entirety has plenty of difficult matchups, but he also has an impressive supporting cast with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and more. My current projections have him eclipsing 3,000 passing yards and throwing for 25 touchdowns.
108. Jordan Addison (WR, MIN) – Jordan Addison was already due for regression in 2024 before his off-the-field concerns. While Addison should serve a suspension this season, we don’t know when or for how long. That is not a gamble. I am taking on a pass catcher who gained most of his value from touchdowns and has to navigate a new quarterback or two, one of which is a rookie.
109. Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) – If going out with a whimper was a fantasy football player, it would be Courtland Sutton. He scored ten touchdowns last year, but he did not score at a sustainable pace. Now, he doesn’t only have regression coming his way, but he goes from Russell Wilson to one of Bo Nix or Jarrett Stidham. Expect a reduction in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns in 2024.
110. Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) – Dalton Schultz is the picture next to the word average in the dictionary. He gets exactly what you expect with the plays he is given. Schultz will flirt with TE1 numbers all season, but you won’t ever be happy with having him on your roster.
111. Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) – Dallas Goedert has found his home just outside the top tight ends in the league. He is essentially Dalton Schultz with better marketing. He isn’t the one winning you weeks, and as long as he is healthy, he won’t ever get you that dreaded zero. If you are in a bind, there are worse options.
112. Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR) – Matthew Stafford is in the twilight of his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a streaming option in your fantasy leagues. The breakouts of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams helped Stafford notch another top-15 season. When it comes to 2024, Stafford’s best chance to help your team win is if you punted quarterback and chose to pair him with a Jayden Daniels type. The first two games on the Rams’ schedules look to be barn burners, and week one, especially when Stafford gets to go against his former Detroit Lions.
Tier 12
113. Jonathon Brooks (RB, CAR) – Jonathon Brooks was the top running back of the 2024 rookie class. The only challenge when navigating his value in redraft leagues is that he is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered late last season. The most recent news out of Carolina is that Brooks won’t be participating in the preseason, which makes his outlook for the season a little murkier. He should drop in ADP over the next two weeks, and when that happens, the sharp fantasy managers will pounce on the potential late-season league winner at the position. Brooks, when he is healthy, is immediately the Panthers’ best rusher and receiver out of the backfield. Even if it is a slow burn, the juice will be worth the squeeze.
114. Xavier Worthy (WR, KC) – Last year, the Chiefs were unable to equip Patrick Mahomes with a fully functioning wide receiver core. Obviously, Rashee Rice rose to the occasion to some degree, but they needed more. Enter Xavier Worthy. Worthy is a bit raw as a route runner, but he has killer speed and could develop into a major playmaker for the Chiefs with the right coaching. If Rice were to miss more than four games, Worthy may move up this list some out of necessity alone.
115. Jakobi Meyers (WR, LV) – Jakobi Meyers was underrated as a Patriot, so it was good to see him eclipse 100 targets in his first season as a Raider. There is more untapped potential for Meyers, but it is unlikely we see that potential realized in 2024. Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew are not the quarterbacks you want for a pass catcher on your fantasy roster. Not only that, but Meyers will contend with Davante Adams and Brock Bowers this season. I like the player a lot, but his fantasy arrow is pointing down.
116. Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) – Zach Charbonnet wasn’t the threat many thought he might be to Kenneth Walker’s touches in his rookie season. Walker outpaced him by over double on the ground (219 vs. 108) and fell just three targets short of Charbonnet as well (37 vs. 40). That being said, Charbonnet did show that when given the opportunity, he has the talent to carry the load for the Seahawks. We are officially in what I like to call handcuff+ territory. The 6’1″, 214-pound back has some matchup-based FLEX appeal, and if Walker were to go down, he would immediately be in the RB1 conversation.
117. Jerome Ford (RB, CLE) – Jerome Ford will never be the league-winning running back in fantasy football. He gets what is given to him, sometimes slightly more, sometimes slightly less. Filling in for the injured Nick Chubb last season, he averaged just shy of 4.0 yards per carry while eclipsing 800 rushing yards and hauling in 44 receptions. Chubb’s return to 100% looks to be a ways away still, which means the Browns will be relying heavily on Jerome Ford to carry the load in his absence. Ford is one of the few guys I don’t even put on my draft board, but if you find yourself desperate for a running back, he has a 200+ touch floor, and in fantasy football, that keeps you in a matchup most weeks.
118. Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE) – We will focus on Deshaun Watson on the football field. On the field, Watson has not shown much left. He has struggled with injury and ranked near the bottom of the league in most passing categories. Right now, he is not a lock to be healthy and cleared to play in week one. He has a strong roster around him, including Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman. His completion percentage over the last two seasons won’t get it done for another year, so the hope for Watson is that he can start to succeed more when pushing the ball downfield. The upside isn’t there like it was early in his career.
119. Devin Singletary (RB, NYG) – Devin Singletary is the running back you can’t leave on waivers but never want to inject into your lineup. He is looking at a potentially massive workload with the Giants in 2024, during which he could amass the largest touch totals of his career. That being said, there are questions about the offensive line and how many scoring opportunities Singletary will have. Last season, he averaged around 15 touches a game for the Texans and finished just outside the top 30 in the position. He lands right at RB36 for me in 2024.
120. Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA) – Tyler Lockett never got the respect he deserved as a bonafide stud at the wide receiver position, and unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that will change as he started to decline in 2023. Lockett led the Seahawks in targets last season with 122, but this year, he will have a difficult time fighting off both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Ryan Grubb’s new system. My rough projections have him falling short of 100 targets for the first time since 2018.
121. Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL) – Zeke makes his return to Dallas in 2024. It has already been established that he will be on a committee alongside Rico Dowdle, with Royce Freeman or Deuce Vaughn mixing in here or there. It’s a murky backfield with limited upside right now. Ultimately, Zeke put up an abysmal 3.49 yards per carry last season. Yes, part of that was the failing Patriots offense, but it also follows the trend of the tread wearing thin for the former fantasy superstar. If you are drafting Elliot in 2024, you are praying he falls into the endzone ten times, and while that is certainly possible, I wouldn’t be relying on that for your lineup or bench spots.
122. Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) – There is a fair chance that Khalil Shakir leads the Buffalo Bills in targets. Rookie Keon Coleman is a raw prospect, and Curtis Samuel has never been able to shoulder the load of a WR1 in the NFL. Shakir has shown flashes of greatness but has not yet been given the volume to really impact fantasy football. I don’t think it will always be pretty, and it may completely fall apart, but Shakir could play a nice role for fantasy managers who are ravaged by bye weeks or injuries.
123. Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) – Isaiah Likely proved in Mark Andrews’s absence that he deserves more playing time. During the final five games of the season, Likely posted four TE1 finishes, three of which were TE5 or better. Todd Monken has already hinted that Likely will be used in creative ways in 2024. If this does come to fruition, Likely may be way too low here.
124. Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) – Baker Mayfield had his career revived in his first season in Tampa Bay, throwing for over 4,000 yards. Mayfield was playing like a man possessed. He threw for the most touchdowns of his career while pushing the ball downfield more than he ever has, thanks in large part to Mike Evans. Mayfield did lose Dave Canales to the Panthers, which will hurt, but he still gets to throw to Evans, Chris Godwin, Richard White, and newcomer Jalen McMillan. Baker presents a high-floor streaming option, as he only fell out of the top 20 players at his position three times all season.
125. Jameson Williams (WR, DET) – Jameson Williams might never happen, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t holding on to hope for one more season. Between injury and suspension, Williams has never been able to secure his footing in the NFL. The Lions coaching staff has been very positive about Williams this training camp, though, which has not always been the sentiment around the Alabama product.