Tier 7
41. Davante Adams (WR, LV) – Is this the year we see Davante Adams finally hit that wide receiver age cliff? While I don’t know if it will be all Adams’ fault, the Raiders’ passing game is headed toward a disastrous season. With one of Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connel manning the helm, the potential that Adams shows anything like his early career is limited. Last season was already a significant drop off from his typical value due to the lack of touchdowns, and that concern is still there for 2024. He also has to deal with newcomer Brock Bowers, who will demand targets as well. Adams may end up slightly higher than where I have this season, but the ceiling is lower than in years past, and the risk is much higher.
42. Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR) – Cooper Kupp still has plenty left in the tank, evidenced by his final stretch of games. His 17-game pace would have put him over 1,000 yards and 84 receptions. While Kupp may be more of a 1B rather than a bonafide one in the Rams’ new offense, he has been leading the way in training camp thus far, and that is not something to be ignored. He has dealt with injury in every season since 2021, which is why he falls as far as he does, but there are far worse options than Kupp when it comes to your team’s WR2.
43. George Pickens (WR, PIT) – If the Steelers do not find a way to bring Brandon Aiyuk to Pittsburgh, George Pickens will be in for a breakout season. While WR23 might be less exciting to you, it matters for fantasy football. Last season, he ended the year as WR30, and with the additions of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Pickens should be getting an upgrade no matter who wins the job. Wilson is notorious for pushing the ball downfield. It got him into trouble in Denver, accruing a high number of sacks while waiting too long for plays to develop. Justin Fields can get through his first read and his first read only. That is why he hyper-targeted DJ Moore in Chicago last year. Both benefit Pickens, who should be able to win in contested catch situations and is a dominant X wide receiver.
44. Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF) – One of the most unique playmakers in the NFL, Deebo Samuel, has the ability to win in ways that most other wide receivers can only dream of. That’s why the fantasy world is constantly looking for the next Deebo. In the back half of the season, Deebo averaged over 18 fantasy points per game, behind only CeeDee Lamb. If Brandon Aiyuk gets traded, Deebo will jump up to WR18 for me, but until that happens, he is a high-upside player who has a lot of target competition.
45. Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) – Kyren Williams is coming off of a breakout season for the Los Angeles Rams. He averaged over 21 fantasy points per game and established himself as a premier player for fantasy football. So why does he land as a fringe RB1? There is a good chance Kyren never sees a season with that type of production again. His efficiency metrics are due for regression in 2024, and not only that, but he has a smaller frame and has struggled with injury during his brief career. History tells us that late-round running backs are a dangerous bet, and the Rams didn’t necessarily give us reason to think otherwise when they drafted Michigan standout, Blake Corum. The good news is that rookies tend to be slow to learn the McVay system, and Kyren should get enough opportunities to keep him near the top of the league. Right now, his ADP has him sitting near the top of the second round, but if he were to fall to the back end of round two, he might present a decent value for fantasy managers.
46. Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) – The offseason questions about Tee Higgins left us hoping he would land somewhere he could establish himself as the WR1 for an offense. Unfortunately, fantasy managers will have to wait one more season for that. Higgins is the WR2 for a Joe Burrow-led offense, so he could land near the top of this tier instead of the bottom. That being said, he has dealt with injury regularly in his career and usually becomes an afterthought when Burrow and Chase are clicking. Capped in the low-200 fantasy points range until he moves on, Higgins isn’t generally going to win you weeks. He is a fine WR2, but if you can roll him out as your WR3 or FLEX, you will be much happier.
47. Amari Cooper (WR, CLE) – Amari Cooper is a decent value in 2024 as a player who should surpass 1,000 receiving yards once again. The real value with Cooper is if Deshaun Watson is able to regain some of his former glory. If that were to happen, then Cooper could flirt with top-15 wide receiver production. The path is there, and he is a rock-solid WR3.
48. Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) – Josh Jacobs is a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, he is one of the most violent runners in the NFL who has the skill set to be a workhorse, and on the other, he seems to always be battling an injury and has struggled with efficiency for most of his career. It is hard to tell if that is because of Jacobs or because of the often laughable Las Vegas Raiders. In 2024, we will get some clarity on that question. The Green Bay Packers not only cut Aaron Jones but backed up the Brink’s truck to bring in Jacobs to be their lead rusher. The new-look Packers are always on the rise, and this time, it is due to the emergence of Jordan Love. With a multifaceted passing attack, Jacobs should be able to find plenty of room to run and be a weapon in the passing game. Even coming off of the least efficient season of his career, Jacobs, only 26 years old, should have a chance to return to his 2022 form.
49. Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) – It isn’t clear how the Ravens will use Zay Flowers this year. He proved he deserved to be their WR1, but he had inconsistent usage as it appeared the Ravens were trying to figure out how to use his skill set. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Flowers be the number two option on this offense behind Mark Andrews. Todd Monken’s system continues to evolve for the Ravens, and Flowers has a fair chance to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in year two. He is a strong WR3 with upside.
50. Rachaad White (RB, TB) – If you have just checked the fantasy points for Rachaad White, you will probably be appalled by my ranking. The truth is when you watched White play and dive further than the counting stats, you realize that he was an abysmal rusher in 2023. He turned 272 carries into less than a thousand rushing yards (990). For context, White tied CMC in carries, but his rushing production fell nearly 500 yards short. The silver lining for White is that his work as a receiver was Alvin Kamara-esque, and that is not to be ignored, especially in full PPR leagues. The Buccaneers did add Bucky Irving in this year’s draft, which is likely to impede White’s lead leading snap count from last season and ultimately limit his ceiling in 2024.
51. Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) – Fantasy managers have forgotten just how good a healthy Kyler Murray is. In his first three seasons in the NFL, he was QB6 overall on average. Just two seasons ago, Murray was a near lock to throw for over 3,500 yards while rushing for 500+. In 2024, he has breakout tight end Trey McBride, rookie and future superstar Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver, and one of the worst defenses in the league. Those things all combine to create a fantasy dreamland. He is a screaming value at his QB10/11 ADP. If you are overly concerned about injury, pair him with a rookie signal caller like Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels.
52. CJ Stroud (QB, HOU) – C.J. Stroud posted the best rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history. He single-handedly revived a Texans franchise that had still not recovered from the Deshaun Watson fiasco. Stroud’s rookie season naturally set the fantasy football world ablaze, and he shot up to QB3 in dynasty leagues. Still, there are reasons that I would advise against putting him in your top five players at the position, no matter if you are playing with one season in mind or beyond. The primary one is rushing. Stroud isn’t a complete zero with his legs, but he is close enough. For NFL purposes, that may not matter, but for fantasy, it means he needs to be throwing the ball around 600 times in a season, even to put himself in contention to be a top-five option at the position. The Texans added Stefon Diggs to an already impressive wide receiver room, but as things stand now, CJ Stroud doesn’t belong in the tier above and is probably being overdrafted at his QB5 ADP.
Tier 8
53. Christian Kirk (WR, JAC) – I would not be surprised to see Christian Kirk lead the Jaguars in targets this season. His role is well established, and even as the Jags add outside pass-catchers, Kirk shouldn’t see a massive reduction in volume. While he isn’t likely to see the eight touchdowns number from two years ago in full PPR, his receptions should be able to keep him in the WR3 conversation. He was on pace for 81 receptions last year, which fell just shy of his breakout season in 2022.
54. Tank Dell (WR, HOU) – Tank Dell fought against the BMI mob in his rookie season, and he won. He was averaging over 2.0 yards per route run and being one of the most essential playmakers for the Texans. There are questions about his being able to hold up for an entire season and how the targets will be distributed between Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Nico Collins, but you should be buying this offense, and he may be the most affordable option.
55. Joe Mixon (RB, HOU) – Joe Mixon is among the veteran rushers on the move this year, going from the Bengals to the CJ Stroud-led Texans. Mixon is coming off the second-best fantasy season of his career and now joins a team that has a far superior offensive line and one of the most talented wide receiver groups in the league. There isn’t much more a 28-year-old running back could ask for. Coming in at RB15 for me has a lot more to do with the fact that he will share the backfield with Dameon Pierce and potentially Cam Akers, who have not been impressive but have been good enough to be a thorn in the side of Mixon managers.
56. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) – Rhamondre Stevenson came into last season on the heels of a massive breakout in 2022. Unfortunately for him, the Patriots offense came to a grinding halt, and Stevenson bore the brunt of that burden. Even before his high ankle sprain, his yards per carry dropped from 4.95 to 3.97, and his usage on passing downs also dipped slightly. Needless to say, a new offense, a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new contract all bring greener pastures for the bruising back. Even with the addition of Antonio Gibson, Stevenson should have a chance to reclaim his former glory. While RB1 is not likely in his range of outcomes, he should be a consistent and rock-solid RB2, landing somewhere between 230 and 285 touches and eclipsing 1,000 yards on the ground.
57. D’Andre Swift (RB, CHI) – D’Andre Swift lands in a new home for the third time in his young career. He is coming off his first thousand-yard rushing season and the healthiest season of his career. He enters a running back room that brings back Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. The Bears are a team on the rise, and Swift looks to be the favorite to lead the team’s efforts on the ground. Swift is best served when he gets 15-18 touches a game, and while that keeps him a tier or two below the volume of the best in the league, his big play ability could be on full display in Chicago. The big win, though, comes from the fact that he doesn’t need to worry about the tush push in 2024.
58. Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) – Joe Burrow has yet to have a normal offseason program in his NFL career. While that in itself is alarming, Burrow experienced a wrist injury last season that no other quarterback has ever had. It makes projecting his return slightly more challenging. Still, he has a decent offensive line and gets to throw the ball to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so a 4,000+ yard season is well within reach. In the two seasons where he missed one game or less, he eclipsed the 4,500 mark while also throwing for 35+ touchdowns. This tier is chalked full of volume passers, and Burrow could find himself anywhere from QB5 to QB13, which makes him a difficult player to pull the trigger on at his current ADP.
59. Keenan Allen (WR, CHI) – Keenan Allen has been one of the most prolific wide receivers in the NFL during his career. Last season was one of Allen’s best of his career, even with him missing time due to an injury. Now he joins a crowded Chicago wide receiver room but should be able to compete for the WR1 role with DJ Moore and even play more in the slot in three wide receiver sets. Allen has spent his entire career winning with his route running and nuance, not his athleticism, so he could have more career left than people think.
60. Jordan Love (QB, GB) – Jordan Love got his bag this offseason, which is something of an unprecedented move for a quarterback who has played in just 20 complete games in his four-year career. The Packers refuse to miss at the quarterback position, to the dismay of the rest of the NFC North. Love broke out in a major way last season, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in his first entire season as the starter. Love also brings some rushing upside, adding 247 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. With a young nucleus of pass catchers, Love should be firmly entrenched as a QB1 for 2024, especially with veteran play-caller Matt LaFleur calling the shots.