Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 5th, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Betting Odds: ATL -4.5, 37.5 o/u total via Oddshark.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (Sit, Season-ending IR), Jaren Hall (Sit), Josh Dobbs (Sit)
It was a shame to see Kirk Cousins go down with an Achilles injury last week. That said, it doesn’t really matter who is starting for the Vikings this week; you can’t start them. Even though the Atlanta Falcons are giving up the 8th most points to quarterbacks, anyone who goes under center for the Vikings in Week 9 is a bad option. Jaren Hall offers little in the way of NFL experience and Josh Dobbs still unpacking his bags after an admirable fill-in stint for the Arizona Cardinals in the first half of the season. Hall is the least interesting of the two backup quarterbacks thrust into action in this game. Sit him.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Sit), Cam Akers (Sit)
It appears that Alexander Mattison might have lost his starting role to a guy who wasn’t even on the roster at the start of the season. Despite outsnapping Cam Akers and getting more carries, Akers had the better game. Mattison was so inefficient that when the game needed to be put away, the Vikings gave the ball to Akers instead. Akers averaged only 2.11 yards per carry but that was better than Mattison’s 1.94. They now face the Falcons who are giving up the 5th fewest points to running backs. They did just lose all pro defensive lineman Grady Jarrett which does open up some room. But they can stack the box because there will be a below-average quarterback under center. I’m sitting both this week since I don’t know which one (if either) will see enough volume or be productive enough with the touches they get.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
K.J. Osborn (Start, Flex), Jordan Addison (Sit, Flex), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE2)
What a killer the Kirk Cousins injury is; a good matchup for the Minnesota Vikings wide receivers feels more or less wasted. The Falcons are giving up the 16th most points to wide receivers. Jordan Addison has stepped up admirably while Justin Jefferson has been on IR, especially for a rookie. Addison has seen 18 targets in the past two weeks but will be lining up across from A.J. Terrell who is a tough corner. Given the lack of quality quarterback play in Week 9, I’m not trusting Addison in this matchup even if he gets into the Flex Range.
K.J. Osborn has been the “veteran” presence on the team at age 26. He hasn’t been super consistent but had a great Week 8 game in which he posted 99 yards on eight receptions. I believe he will be the safety valve for Hall, so I’m willing to slide him into my flex spot this week. He will be covered mostly by Jeff Okudah who rates as the 80th best cover corner.
Brandon Powell was moved into the slot role the past two weeks. You shouldn’t be starting him; it’s a horrible matchup against Dee Alford who rates as the 8th best corner in the league. Powell might have more chemistry with a backup due to practicing more together but he can’t be trusted this week. More than likely, tight end T.J. Hockenson will be the leader or second in targets this week. The Falcons are middle of the road in terms of giving up points to tight ends. I’m still willing to start him, despite a nagging, minor foot injury and the probability of poor quarterback play. Start him as a high-end TE2.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Sit), Taylor Heinicke (Sit, QB2)
Ridder cleared the concussion protocol earlier this week, but Taylor Heinicke will start this game. I know we all want to see him under center for the rest of the season in Atlanta, but I don’t know if that will happen. Atlanta wants to give Desmond Ridder every opportunity to show the Falcons that they don’t need to draft a franchise quarterback, so it’s possible he could work his way back into the lineup if Heinicke falters while he shows progress in practice. We also know not to count on Arthur Smith to do the obvious and sensible thing. The Vikings are giving up the 10th most points to quarterbacks. Given that Vegas has this game as one of its lowest over/unders of the year I worry about passing volume for Heinicke. I know what the numbers are telling me, but with four teams on bye and a plethora of quarterback changes taking place this week, it may be difficult to find 23 better options than Heinicke, who just might (we hope) be the key to unlock Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1) Tyler Allgeier (Start, FLEX)
Bijan Robinson was no longer sick and the snap shared reflected it. He played on 74 percent of the team’s snaps and saw 11 carries. What is still shocking to all of us is that Tyler Allgeier played on only 22 percent of the team’s snaps yet received 8 carries. It’s clear the Falcons want to run the ball but the carry split is still frustrating and limiting the upside for both of these players. A week ago this matchup looked a lot tougher. The Vikings are giving up the 7th fewest points to running backs but now that it looks like the Falcons can play a ball control offense and eat up the clock, I like the running back duo more. I think it will be a very close carry split with the slightly larger share going to Bijan. With his 5.07 yards per carry and his involvement in the passing game, I expect him to be in the RB1 range this week. I believe that Allgeier could into the RB2 range. He will likely see enough volume and possibly steal a touchdown. His 3.19 yards per carry isn’t great but his size allows him to hold up late in games when defenses are tired.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR3 ) Kyle Pitts (Start, TE2) Van Jefferson (Sit, flex) Everyone Else (Sit)
There isn’t much to love about the Falcons passing attack. It starts with Drake London, who has been the leading receiver in terms of targets this season. He has been a reliable WR3 in most games this year with a few spike weeks. He gets to face Akayleb Evans who rates as the 79th best cover corner. I expect the Vikings to move a safety over to help, and that would probably be Camryn Bynum, who rates as the 4th best cover safety. Overall, it doesn’t look great for London this week; I’m still going to roll him as a flex play and hope that he can do enough when moved around into a better matchup.
The Falcons have been looking for another outside weapon and have been patchworking it together with the likes of Mack Hollins, KhaDarel Hodge, and now Van Jefferson. I like that Jefferson played on 71 percent of the snaps in only his second game with the team. He had some really bad drops, but that can be fixed. He will see coverage from Byron Murphy, Jr. who rates 103rd out of 114 corners in coverage, according to PFF.com. I’m worried about the total amount of targets to go around this week so I’m sitting Jefferson even if he could get into flex range in a best-case scenario.
Kyle Pitts has finally started to produce for fantasy managers. Over the past four weeks, he has been a TE2 or better. The issue is that the Vikings are giving up the 12th fewest points to tight ends. Even if Bynum slides over to help cover London, that leaves safety Harrison Smith (17th best cover safety) and linebackers Jordan Hicks and Ivan Pace Jr. who rate as the 11th and 28th best coverage linebackers. You probably still start Pitts as a low-end TE2. Any touchdown production whatsoever will catapult him to the TE1 range.