Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 5th, 9:30 AM ET
Location: Deutsche Bank Park; Frankfurt, Germany
Betting Odds: KC -2.5, 50.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
Miami’s fourth-year quarterback has thrown for at least 215 yards and one touchdown in each and every game this season. In fact, Tua Tagovailoa is averaging over 300 yards and two passing touchdowns per contest. As the point guard of this high-powered offense, he is a phenomenal fantasy asset. There is reason for some concern given Kansas City’s success on defense this year, but they haven’t been as dominant as many believe. They are only ranked 15th in coverage and 16th in pass rush by PFF this season, and middle-of-the-pack doesn’t cut it against this offense. The high over/under is also a good sign for lots of points to come, so Tagovailoa should be a solid mid-tier QB1.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB1), Jeff Wilson Jr. (Sit)
After a shockingly elite start to the season for Raheem Mostert, the veteran has cooled down the last couple of weeks and has actually been pretty disappointing. He hasn’t topped 50 yards in three weeks and hasn’t played 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 2. This game in Germany is a great bounce-back spot, though. Mostert has still led the Miami backfield in opportunities and snaps every week since De’Von Achane’s injury. He also faces a Chiefs defense that ranks in the Bottom 10 against the run, according to PFF. Operating as the lead back for Mike McDaniel’s offense, Mostert has great RB1 upside in what should be a high-scoring affair. Although Jeff Wilson Jr. is starting to get more involved, he still hasn’t played more than 25 percent of the team’s snaps each of the last two weeks and has yet to prove trustworthy for fantasy purposes.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
Tyreek Hill could be wearing ankle weights while double-covered by Deion Sanders and Ed Reed in their primes as a blindfolded Nathan Peterman throws him the ball on plays designed by an inebriated Matt Patricia…and I’d still be furiously typing away to tell you why Tyreek Hill is a WR1 this week. Everyone knows he’s an every-week start, so I won’t waste my time or yours preaching to the choir. I will note, however, that Hill has the best matchup advantage of all WRs this week, per PFF. If you have him, enjoy.
Jaylen Waddle didn’t get off to the hot start that a lot of his teammates did this season, but his involvement in the offense has started to grow. He has 20 catches for 235 yards and two touchdowns over the last three weeks and has been targeted on 26 percent of his routes run this season. This matchup allows him to continue his hot streak: Waddle has lined up on the outside on 72 percent of his snaps this year, and the Chiefs’ two outside cornerbacks are Jaylen Watson and L’Jarius Sneed. This is an excellent matchup for Waddle either way, according to PFF’s matchup tool, and he should be able to take full advantage in what could be a barn burner. Consider Waddle a high-end WR2.
Despite being the third wide receiver on this electric offense, Braxton Berrios has only caught more than two passes twice this season and doesn’t have a prominent enough role in this offense to be fantasy-relevant. He can remain off of fantasy rosters and out of lineups.
Similarly, tight end Durham Smythe has only been targeted four times over the same number of weeks and isn’t a real weapon in this offense. There is zero reason to start him given his lack of expected involvement.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
When it comes to real-life football, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world, and he’ll get to put his talents on full display in a new part of the globe on Sunday. He struggled mightily last week against Denver, but I think he gets somewhat of a pass given the illness he was dealing with. He still has an incredible 2,258 yards and 15 touchdowns through eight games, so the production has been elite overall. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so this match-up is mouthwatering for Mahomes. Jalen Ramsey is back and healthy which bolsters the Miami secondary, as evidenced last week (New England’s putrid offense notwithstanding). However, the Dolphins’ defense shouldn’t scare anyone enough to even consider benching Mahomes, who’s a high-end QB1.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
In case you haven’t picked up on it yet, I want as many players from this game in my fantasy lineup as possible. Isiah Pacheco has done a formidable job as Andy Reid’s RB1 this season and is no exception. He has played well over 50 percent of offensive snaps and has received at least 12 carries in all but two games this year. He even is getting more involved in the passing game now, hauling in 13 receptions and a touchdown over the last three weeks, a great sign of what’s to come against the Dolphins. Only one thing holds me back from making Pacheco an RB1 in this high-scoring matchup: Miami’s run defense is PFF’s number-one ranked run defense, which is bad news for Pacheco, to say the least. The stout defensive front for the Dolphins limits Pacheco to RB2 territory, but he still has enough upside to flirt with RB1 production. Jerick McKinnon, on the other hand, hasn’t had enough volume to warrant a start with the tough matchup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Rashee Rice (Start, WR3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Skyy Moore (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
We are officially arriving at the point where Patrick Mahomes has a clear number-one wide receiver to pair with elite tight end Travis Kelce. Rookie Rashee Rice is earning the role as the top wideout in this offense. He out-snapped every other Chiefs receiver for the first time this season in Week 8, and despite only taking over WR1 duties last week, Rice has been Kansas City’s best receiver for some time now. He has at least four receptions in each of his last four games and has been a phenomenal red zone threat who excels against zone coverage. This matchup with Miami is an exciting one given the Dolphins have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Rice lines up in the slot more often than not, and Jalen Ramsey didn’t line up in the slot a single time in his Dolphins debut, another good sign for Rice. He still lacks the talent and utilization to launch him into WR1 or WR2 territory, but he should be considered a trustworthy WR3.
All other Chiefs receivers simply cannot be trusted in your starting lineup. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore are the only Chiefs receivers with over a 50 percent snap share, but they have just 26 receptions on the season between them. They will also likely be drawing frequent coverage from Jalen Ramsey. No other receiver on the team gets a sufficient target share, and none are deserving of one, either. Aside from Rice, the highest-graded Chiefs receiver by PFF is Justin Watson, who’s ranked 66th out of 182 WRs. After that, it’s Kadarius Toney, who’s 91st. Stay away.
Travis Kelce is an obvious TE1. He already is the top-scoring fantasy tight end on the season, and the Dolphins have struggled mightily against tight ends such as Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, and Dallas Goedert so far this year. PFF ranks his matchup advantage as the single best of all tight ends in Week 8; he could be in for a huge week.