Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, at 1:00 PM EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: HOU -3 O/U 40 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)
I love Baker Mayfield leading this team; he’s becoming a scrappy story I really can rally behind. A lot of that probably comes from getting hosed out of his Cleveland Browns gig in favor of that guy, which turned me against that entire franchise, possibly forever. A terrible fit with the Carolina Panthers (I mean, he looked COOKED the moment he got there), he then had that game with the Los Angeles Rams off the street (symphony rises in the background) which led to this one-year deal that everyone kind of assumed was as a filler…that is, those who thought he’d actually beat out Kyle Trask.
To his credit, Baker has gone out there and grittied himself up. While they aren’t winning a lot yet, you can see the pieces slowly starting to drift together for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at least enough that Mayfield can lead them to a record just good enough to earn an extension AND keep Tampa Bay from getting a blue-chipper to replace him. That’s savvy quarterback play. Personally, I just need him to achieve enough success that calling them ‘The Bakerneers’ catches on. Then you’ll point at this website and shout, “HEY, that guy from that site called them that a year ago! He was ahead of his time! Too bad about what happened to him in that bear attack.”
Anyway, the Houston Texans are 23rd against the pass in terms of total yards given up (3,558) and yards per attempt (6.8). BUT, they’ve only given away 15 touchdowns despite all that, which is tied for the league best with the New York Jets. In what is sometimes a critical factor for Bakerfiles, they aren’t too slouchy in the interception department either, garnishing 16 so far this year. What this all adds up to is probably an average Baker 2023 game: yardage in the mid-200s, probably a touchdown or two, and maybe a pick. Prime QB2 territory, so if you’re on a bye, or god forbid just lost Kirk Cousins or whoever else, welcome to Kirk Cousins Lite! Half the stats, twice the nerve-wracking fun!
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, RB2), Chase Edmonds (Sit)
What’s the value of an unquestioned RB1 in an offense that doesn’t use one more than 15 times a game? That’s the question you’d probably be crying yourself to sleep over weekly, holding a crumpled-up poster of Rachaad White to your chest. I say “probably” because thankfully, Tampa and Rachaad have figured out he doesn’t need to always be doing all that running to make himself your fantasy friend these days! In the past two outings, while our pal Mr. White has only rushed for 34 and 39 yards respectively, he has loaded his plate up with nourishing receiving stats, which in a way are more filling in your typical PPR leagues. To wit, Rachaad put up 65 yards on 6-for-6 receiving (with a long of 22) against the Falcons two weeks back, and then backed that up against the Buffalo Bills last week with 70 more air yards, going 7 out of 7 (with a long of 20). As running backs on Tampa go, Chase Edmonds got an additional three carries and two catches last week, but his contributions are minimal, as are Ke’Shawn Vaughn‘s, for that matter). Rachaad is the only one of value for your fantasy squad, and that value continues to increase; if you were patient, good work.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR3), Trey Palmer/Deven Thompkins (Sit), Cade Otton (Sit)
As with most weeks, it’s a horse apiece whether Mike Evans or Chris Godwin might have the edge over the other. Both have average cornerback matchups this week, per the Pro Football Focus matchup calculator, and neither has had a ‘real big week’ for over a month. They continue to see similar target shares. One may yield a couple of extra looks to the other on any given week, but it’s not a chasm of separation there. Both are solid players, but to this point, Evans has seen the end zone a lot more often than Godwin.
To point, Evans has scored in five of Tampa’s seven outings this far; that’s half of Baker Mayfield’s entire passing touchdown total this season. Godwin finally got past the paywall last week, but one week does not a shift in trending make, so until there’s more consistent success in scoring situations, I recommend bracing yourself to be content with the yards and catches on the journey, and accept Evans is the one that is going to actually be “getting there.” Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins both see under half of the targets of Mike and Chris, and neither has put together over 125 total yards through Week 8, so I wouldn’t look at either, even in a desperation play.
Cade Otton‘s two best games this year consisted of going 6-for-6 for 41 yards in Week 2 against the Bears, and then 5-for-6 for 43 yards two weeks ago against the Atlanta Falcons. He has one touchdown for the season in a game where he otherwise contributed 13 yards and 3 catches. In a league loaded with forgettable tight ends all over the place, he may very well be the least interesting. I tire of even thinking of him now; I’d honestly rather talk about Tyler Conklin or Irv Smith, Jr.
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C. J. Stroud (Start, QB2)
After a heck of a start to his career, C. J. Stroud has floated back to the planet a bit over the past couple of weeks. That’s to be expected, really: he’s still Year One. His low numbers back in Week 6 came against New Orleans, who is running one of the top 3 passing defenses in the league this year, and then last week he ran headfirst into the living buzzsaw that is….uh, the Carolina Panthers? Okay, so let’s maybe chalk that week up to a little ring rust after the bye. But it is worth noting that in both those games, Stroud’s attempts per game dropped below 30.
Lack of sustained success on a couple of drives would certainly be a factor, but rushing attempts in both games pushed over 30 – aside from an anomaly game against the Steelers in which they ran 38 times, Houston has hovered around the 25 attempts per game arena for most of the rest of the season. Which, as we’ll note in further anger below, is a terrible trend for these Texans to pursue further, as their run game is a fiery, gasoline-soaked diaper while their passing game has been competent. As DeMeco Ryans is a sharp guy by all reports and observations, I would expect that run/pass combo to revert to favoring Stroud’s arm a little more this week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are no slouches, ranking tenth in total yards allowed BUT tied at next to last in touchdowns allowed, giving up 29 so far. I would look for Stroud to see increased success here in what should be a fun game between two scrappers: think mid-to-high 200 for yards and 1-2 touchdowns, but I’m tempering the QB1 talk until C. J. is back performing at that level.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Sit), Devin Singletary (Sit)
As a long-time Dameon Pierce shareholder going way back to the 2022 NFL Draft, it gives me no pleasure to deliver this news: Dameon Pierce is an awful, awful fantasy option. Just a cloud of sadness. He has one touchdown this year, hasn’t had one game where he’s averaged over 3.8 yards per carry – and he’s played a couple of duds in there – and his longest run has been 16 yards. To get him off your roster, a direct cut would be the most efficient method, and hopefully (probably) somebody else in your league will immediately scarf him up because “he’s gotta break through sometime, right?”
Wrong. Don’t be that guy.
Somehow, despite the opportunity laid at his feet for the taking against a terrible Carolina Panthers run defense ranked as the league’s worst by PFF, Devin Singletary came up even smaller. This is a guy who held off several comers for his job in Buffalo for a couple of years, and now the question arises: how? These guys are now splitting carries almost right down the middle and still can’t break a hundred yards combined. In a year with a ton of injuries to running backs, and backups young and old showing flashes of value, it takes a commendable commitment to failure to render as completely unusable TWO younger guys who were at least partially relevant as recently as ten months ago. Great job, Houston!
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, WR3), Tank Dell (Start, Flex), Noah Brown (Sit) Robert Woods (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Sit, TE2)
Let’s start by noting the Carolina game was bad for everybody on this squad; sometimes, you just eat it. Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell have good projected matchups against the Tampa Bay secondary, with Collins’s matchup advantage at 84.6 (per PFF) looking terrific, as far as projected advantages go. My biggest concern with the Texans’ wide receiving corps is that the ball gets spread around a lot; nobody sticks out with a dominating target share, and none consistently pull enough looks to ease the nerves. For example, in the first month of the season, Collins saw target totals of 11, 9, 3, and 9…but in the past three games, we’re looking at 4, 6, and 6.
In total, thirteen different players have caught balls for the Texans this year (fourteen, if you count that first throw of the year that came back to Stroud). While the big chunks have gone to Collins (48), Bob Woods (43) Dalton Schultz (39) and Dell (32), there’s enough variety and options in this offense to take a little off the top for any of the fantasy impact players in a given week. I guess what I’m saying as a Green Bay Packers fan is that it must be nice to be able to watch C. J. Stroud go through his reads. Perhaps it’s a bit of a reach to work a Jordan Love slam into a Bucs/Texans preview, but sometimes you gotta do little things for yourself.
Back on track, it’s a good matchup for Collins and Dell, but with the distribution being vast, it affects my view a little. While I want to put Nico at a WR2 based on talent and matchup opportunity, the fact that other weapons are being regularly used on a team that’s watching its passing volume decrease is the driving factor in dropping Collins into WR3 range this week. Similarly, the Tank of the future might be a crusher, but 4.5 targets a week keeps him at a Flex for now.
Robert Woods sat last week, managed only one grab on three targets the game before, and is still working through an injured foot, so I can’t consider him this week even if he does play. With Woods out, Noah Brown has seen five targets a week in his stead, and led the team in yards in the abysmal Panthers effort. He also added 37 yards in the Saints game, but unless I see him supplant Woods once he’s back healthy, I don’t see that usage as sustainable. Until last week, Dalton Schultz was on a tear…as far as that goes for middling TEs drafted late or plucked off the wire. He scored touchdowns in three previous games and went over 60 yards in two of them. He’s a pretty safe play at TE; he doesn’t offer a very high ceiling but has a decent enough floor to fill the spot without hurting your team.