Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 2nd, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Odds: PIT -2.5, O/U 37 via OddsShark
Network: Prime Video
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Will Levis (Start, Low-QB2), Ryan Tannehill (Out)
Will Levis fell to the early second round before the Titans made their move, trading up nine spots to secure a player they hoped would be their quarterback of the future. In his first-ever game, the (arguably) most polarizing prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft put up the best debut in recent memory, with 238 passing yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His arm strength was on display early and often, connecting with DeAndre Hopkins on a 47-yard touchdown on just his seventh NFL pass, and again on a 61-yarder later in the game.
With Ryan Tannehill still not cleared for contact, we can expect to see Levis again on Thursday night. While I am rooting for Levis to succeed, Vegas apparently is not. Despite going up against a Steelers secondary who will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Titans come into the short week with the fourth-lowest team-implied point total (17). With four teams on bye and lots of QB injuries, you could probably do worse than streaming Levis, who has tremendous upside any given week. However, despite last week’s heroics, I’m expecting a run-heavy game plan from the Titans and better defensive strategy from Mike Tomlin than the one Arthur Smith had. The health of Hopkins, who missed practice on Wednesday, will be important to monitor; even if he’s available, Levis grades out as a low-floor, high-upside QB2 this week.
VINTAGE DEANDRE HOPKINS
THREE TDS TODAY
pic.twitter.com/9Fz7Qk9tQ1— PFF (@PFF) October 29, 2023
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Tyjae Spears (Start, FLEX)
The Derrick Henry explosion games have been few and far between this season, but his consistency has been on point, with at least 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. Last week, against a Top 5 Atlanta Falcons rush defense, Henry turned 26 touches into 122 all-purpose yards, finishing as RB12 on the week. What was most encouraging from this performance was his usage in the passing game, with four receptions on four targets, including several designed screens specifically for him. Henry is averaging 19.8 touches/game the past four weeks, and this week, he takes on a Steelers defense ranked in the Bottom 6 in PPG (points-per-game) allowed to fantasy RBs. I expect a run-heavy game plan for the Titans, so fire up Henry with RB1 upside in a great matchup.
Tyjae Spears has been electric in limited opportunity and is currently ranked as PFF’s No. 8 overall RB on the year, despite his limited role behind Henry. Despite persistent, swirling rumors about Henry being traded, the Titans seem to have changed their tune after last week’s victory and were not sellers at Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline. Even with Henry as the unquestioned lead back, Spears has still averaged 7.5 touches and 9.9 (PPR) PPG in his last four weeks. This keeps him in reasonable FLEX territory in a solid matchup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeAndre Hopkins (Start, High-WR3), Treylon Burks (Sit), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Chig Okonkwo (Sit)
Nobody is happier about the emergence of Will Levis than DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins managed his first three touchdowns of the entire season in Levis’s debut, and with the Titans holding steady at the trade deadline, he will remain the No. 1 target in Tennessee for the remainder of the season. His WR2 overall finish last week was buoyed by three touchdowns on four receptions (including a missed offensive PI call on his 47-yard touchdown). Hopkins has excellent matchups against slot CB Chandon Sullivan (PFF’s 109th-ranked CB) and Patrick Peterson (PFF’s 90th-ranked CB), but I’m expecting this reception-touchdown ratio to come crashing back down to Earth in an expected low-scoring game. Hopkins (toe) was a DNP on Wednesday after being limited on Monday and Tuesday; assuming he’s available on gameday, his low expected volume keeps him in low-WR2, high-WR3 territory this week.
After missing the previous three games with a knee injury, Treylon Burks returned last week to the tune of zero receptions on two targets despite taking the field for 51 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. It’s worth noting that one of his missed opportunities was a 30-yard reception that was just slightly overthrown, but Burks’ name was rarely called upon in the win. It is very possible the team was easing him back into action, but with six receptions on the season, he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups quite yet. With that being said, I am happy to stash the former first-round pick. If Levis can continue this momentum and Burks can stay healthy, these two could have a very bright future ahead.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was on the receiving end of Levis’s fourth touchdown pass last week, but the 33-yarder was his only catch of the day, and once again, I am not buying into this outlier. Averaging just four targets per game this season, Westbrook-Ikhine cannot be trusted as more than a desperation FLEX, simply due to his low reception total (17) so far this year.
Oh, Chig Okonkwo. How we miss thee. Last year’s rookie sensation has been almost invisible so far this season, entering the week as TE31 on the year and not finishing a single game with more than 35 receiving yards. Unless he can build a new rapport with Levis, Okonkwo can be left on waivers in standard leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett (Sit, QB2), Mitch Trubisky (Sit, QB2)
Kenny Pickett left last week’s contest with a rib injury in the first half and was unable to return for the rest of the game. On a short week, Pickett has already stated that he expects to start, but this is a situation that will need to be monitored until game time. Even before his injury, the Steelers offense was as pitiful as imaginable. They entered last week leading the league in 3-and-outs (45%) and only helped this statistic by somehow “gaining” nine yards on their first 12 plays. The Titans are currently ranked 11th in PPG to opposing QBs, and I expect their defensive line to wreak havoc on the injured Pickett (or Mitch Trubisky), who currently ranks QB35 in PPG. With a team-implied point total of 19.5, I have no interest in starting either of these options this week outside of QB-needy superflex leagues.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Sit, FLEX), Jaylen Warren (Start, FLEX)
We’ve unfortunately reached the point that I cannot in good conscience recommend Najee Harris as more than a FLEX option. Najee was able to salvage his day last week with several late receptions, where the team curiously used him over the more explosive Jaylen Warren in the two-minute drill at the end of the game, but we can’t bank on that again this week. The Steelers offensive line creates almost no running room for its backs, leaving Najee with just 1.7 YPC last week against a talented Jaguars defensive line. Although the Titans are middle-of-the-pack (14th) against opposing fantasy RBs, they have a similarly talented line, and I don’t like this matchup one bit for Najee. Despite seemingly being hit in the backfield on every play, Najee is still averaging 8.5 PPG in PPR, which is good enough to keep him in low-end FLEX conversation, but it can’t possibly feel good to start him with just one touchdown to his credit so far this year.
Jaylen Warren has become more of the 1B in this backfield, playing 47 percent of snaps the past four weeks while recording at least three receptions in six of seven games this season. According to our scoring system, he is about as safe of a FLEX as they come, with a low week of 6.8 and high of 12.6. If you’re looking for a consistent floor, he is perfect. If you’re looking for upside, I’d look elsewhere.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Diontae Johnson (Start, Low-WR2), George Pickens (Start, WR3), Calvin Austin (Sit), Allen Robinson (Sit), Connor Heyward (Sit)
Welcome back, Diontae Johnson. In his second game since returning from IR, Diontae dominated the Steelers with a 33 percent target share, turning eight receptions into 85 yards. Outside of one play, he was the only player who could provide any spark to this lifeless offense for most of the game. In historical fashion, it was George Pickens who scored the touchdown on his lone reception, but that’s how life goes for Diontae Johnson. His performance last week was good enough for WR20 on the week, and had Kenny Pickett not missed him while wide open in the end zone, Johnson would have finished as the WR11. Diontae is an elite separator when healthy and will be a mismatch no matter where he lines up on the field this week. His volume and target share will keep him in WR2 territory every week, with upside for more if he can ever find the end zone. His practice status will need to be monitored after being helped to the medical tent in the third quarter even though he was able to return and finish the game shortly after.
The expanded role for Diontae was bad news for George Pickens last week. Pickens was targeted just four times as opposed to Johnson’s 14, but in true Pickens style, turned his one reception into an acrobatic touchdown. He almost brought down another beautiful sideline back shoulder pass but was unable to get his second toe down in bounds. Pickens always offers high upside due to his incredible playmaking ability, but he also has a low floor as the WR2 in this low-volume pass offense. Although CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (PFF’s 27th-ranked CB) may make life tough for him on one side of the field, he does have a very favorable matchup with Kristian Fulton (PFF’s 94th ranked CB) on the other. Pittsburgh is always willing to take a few deep shots to Pickens, making him a low-floor, high-ceiling WR3 this week.
George Pickens‼️ pic.twitter.com/JQre78bicJ
— UGA Football Live (@UGAfootballLive) October 29, 2023
The Steelers and OC Matt Canada are doing everything in their power to create splash plays, and that has recently included second-year pro Calvin Austin. Austin was on the receiving end of a jet sweep, a reverse, and a few deep looks last week, which combined to offer a sliver of high upside if he’s able to break one open, like his 76-yard touchdown reception earlier this year. However, with 2.7 touches per game, his floor is nearly zero, a risk I’m not willing to take. Austin is a reasonable stash in Dynasty leagues, but he can stay on waivers in redraft leagues.
Allen Robinson played 69 percent of snaps last week, but has caught one or fewer targets in each of his past four games. No, thank you. Meanwhile, Connor Heyward got the start at TE in the absence of Pat Freiermuth, playing 73 percent of snaps and converting five receptions into 24 yards. Nothing to see here.
– Nick Beaudoin