Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 5, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: GB -2.5 O/U 39.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
*Note: This matchup has the potential to be one of the worst games you ever did see. Plan alternate routes.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Matt Stafford? (Start, QB2) Brett Rypien? (Sit) Door Number 3? (Sit)
This could have been the set-up for the beginning, and potentially the immediate end, of the Stetson Bennett era in Los Angeles. However, he’s been off the bench block since mid-September with the always intriguing ‘non-football-related-illness’, so we’re going to have to put that storyline on the shelf. Anyway, long-time Green Bay tourist Matt Stafford sprained his thumb last week; he’s squarely in the stage of his career that the Rams should have an actual contingency plan for him. That guy has a LOT of road miles on him, and most of those were piled on in Detroit, which in the Stafford era was the equivalent of taking a Mini-Cooper off-roading in the Devil’s Punch Bowl. It happens pretty frequently now, so the Rams MIGHT want to throw a guy on that bench that they trust to start five or six games a year. All of that said, I’ve watched Mattford play through a lot over the years, and if he somehow ends up taking the field, he’s a low-end QB2 against a Packers’ secondary that is currently Rasul Douglas (welp, forget that one), overachiever Rudy Ford, and a fat bag of promises made in the locker room and swiftly broken on the field in Jaire Alexander.
I do not, however, feel any confidence in recommending Brett Rypien, who, if called upon, will be participating in only his tenth game in the fourth year of his career. Heir to the mighty Rypien legacy, Brett has not quite seen the success that Uncle Mark did, but who knows? Maybe he’s just waiting for the right moment. Regardless, his best effort so far in his career was a 242-yard performance featuring two touchdowns during his rookie year with Denver; he’s been chasing the dragon ever since.
Of course, there’s always the chance they go with the new guy….more below.
Running Backs
Darrell Henderson (Start, RB2), Royce Freeman (Start, Flex)
We’re looking at an incredibly small sample size for both of these guys, who are legitimately only playing because Kyren Williams got hurt and Cam Akers got shipped out. Yet, they’re both being used substantially: in a two-week span, Darrell Henderson notched 18 and 12 carries, respectively, while Royce Freeman saw 12 and 9. Total yards are close enough (92 for Henderson, 110 for Freeman), but I tip the cap slightly in favor of Henderson, who contributed 54 yards in the receiving end last week against Dallas; in two weeks of action (again, small sample size), Royce has seen no action there. Regardless, the Packers are awful against the run, and it doesn’t seem to matter much who is running; they are letting folks roll over them to the tune of 5.0 yards a carry, fourth worst in the league, and are seventh overall in most total yardage given up. Might as well get some use out of these two before Kyren returns and both are cast off into the dark, deep waters of Lake Remembering Their Names Wrong If Remembered at All In Ten Years, as is the near-certain destiny for both. But for this glorious week, smoke ’em if you got ’em.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Cooper Kupp (Start, WR3), Puka Nacua (Start, WR2), Tutu Atwell (Sit), Tyler Higbee (Start, TE2)
So this is kind of a rough one, as a lot depends on what happens with Stafford here. Strictly conjecture, but the Rams didn’t trade for anybody of note, and aside from losing out on a ‘bidding war’ for John Wolford (they remembered they had him last year, right?) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they’ve signed an undrafted camp free agent to the practice squad. His name is Dresser Winn, which is either a grocery store chain in Kentucky or a legal firm that would like you to join their random class-action suit against the manufacturer of a kitchen utensil you bought three years ago for the office holiday gift swap. I take those developments as indications that they think Matthew will be okay-to-fine. If that’s the case, and Stafford is cleared to even throw with four fingers and a splint, here’s the next thing I want to point out:
- CB1: Jaire Alexander
- CB2: Carrington Valentine
- Slot CB: Keisean Nixon
Jaire isn’t very scary this year. The last two weeks have been straight garbagetown for Cooper Kupp but the 2023 Green Bay Packers are here to make things right. Even if they slapped Alexander on Kupp exclusively, he can be had. However, I still can’t go all in on Coop because back-to-back performances of 29 and 21 yards mean he has to earn that trust back. There’s a good chance of that: Carrington Valentine, despite the amount of field he’s seen this year, is not ready to be a starting cornerback in the NFL, let alone the number two, and Keisean is…well…a hell of a kick returner when playing cornerback. Between Cooper and Puka Nacua, there should be plenty of opportunity for points against the Packers. Puka gets the edge here simply because he’s maintained a pretty consistent output all year. Last week against Dallas was trash for all the Rams receivers, and he did have a hiccup against the Cardinals, but assuming Kupp does pull more of Jaire’s attention (as should be the case), rolling with Nacua will pay off for his fantasy owners.
BUT IN CASE OF NO STAFFORD: nobody has seen enough of Brett Rypien to know for sure, and WHO ARE WE TO JUDGE A MAN?!? That aside, what we DO know about him is enough to make the controversial call to downgrade both guys a full slot, with Kupp at Flex and Puka WR3 (NOTE: I’d apply a sarcasm font to the words “controversial call” here if I could).
Tutu Atwell has mostly dropped off the planet since Week 2, and with Kupp and Nacua not missing games, there’s no reason to put him out there. Over the last three outings, Atwell has received a total of 7 targets and converted those into 30, 31 and 21 yards receiving. There was a touchdown against Pittsburgh in there, but the scarcity of looks in general tells me to stay away. As for the previously referenced Tyler Higbee, he’s a guy. If you’re down a tight end, he might be an okay spot start, but don’t expect a gamebreaker: his high outputs for this year were 64 and 71-yard games the first month, and he hasn’t visited the endzone yet. I’d rather take a flier on somebody else.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Sit, QB2)
This little paragraph is going to be less focused directly on Jordan Love, and more on the entire fantasy value of the 2023 Green Bay Packers because we need to talk about something: this team is terrible. Week in and week out, it’s become abundantly clear that they aren’t missing one piece of a puzzle, they only have about three of them in total that fit together. Love is erratic at this stage in his development, cannot seem to even get to his second read on most plays (unless it’s a broken one), and the over/under on his overthrows/underthrows feels like it should be somewhere between 6 and 12.
That said, Love is also getting murdered by horrifying offensive line play, and I saw at least four balls in the first half alone last week that were where they needed to be, and were just straight-up choke jobs by…well, ALL of their receivers seemed to contribute in that department. I’m not doom-and-gloom here about the long term, but there are so many things that need to be fixed, from the top down, that it’s going to be a long road to gain confidence in most of these players for fantasy.
But back to the man at hand: Love completed 24 of 41 passes for 229 yards, one touchdown, and one pick (for balance) against the Vikings. He also helmed two failed second-half gimmes in the red zone. It was certainly a group effort of majestic failure, but make no mistake, Love didn’t help matters. This was always going to be a long year, and I’m not giving up on the guy this early in (see: a million links about how Rodgers, Peyton, etc. sucked all of the eggs their first season), but there is so much not working on this team that I’m tapped out on almost all of them.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Sit), AJ Dillon (Sit, Flex)
In a press situation, I’m continuing my recent about-face and recommending AJ Dillon if you absolutely, positively, have to get 6-8 points from your Flex position this week. He has been the better performing back two weeks straight, and in what seems unfathomable anywhere but this year on this team, continues to get goal-line opportunities weekly, despite not once showing any hope of converting one. Dillon has looked more effective – when anybody on this team has looked more effective, granted – over the past two weeks.
Neither guy can brag about any notable running last week against Minnesota, but Dillon contributed 41 yards on five receptions to his partner’s 17 and continues to be the only running back who seems to be considered an end zone alternative to the otherwise typical cadence of “terrible screen pass/screaming rocket to the fifth row,/ground ball behind Jayden Reed,/broken scramble for three yards short” that the Packers have used as their go-to in the red zone this year. Every third drive down there, Dillon gets another chance at the goal line. One day, he might move forward on one!
To the other guy: I’m honestly shocked Green Bay didn’t deal Aaron Jones this week, because that’s the only explanation I could have accepted for the continued misuse of the one ‘surefire’ thing this offense was supposed to have this year. Traditionally, Jones has always been a guy that gets better the more touches he gets. Also traditionally, Green Bay just ignores that. Regardless, since that Bears game, Aaron hasn’t seen the end zone and had a high point of 57 combined yards against Denver, who, lest we forget because of last week’s miracle, is still not a great defense. I can’t trust Aaron Jones anymore; of everyone in Green Bay, he might be suffering the most from the team’s offensive ineptitude. Fantasy wins don’t come from what should happen, only from what actually does.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Sit), Romeo Doubs (Start, Flex), Jayden Reed (Start, WR3), Luke Musgrave (Sit)
WR/CB Matchup projections from Pro Football Focus both categorize the matchups for Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs as “Good,” while Christian Watson stares at an “Average” upcoming duel. Great data for a lot of decisions, but the Packers’ whole receiving corps should come with an asterisk that notes ‘projections based upon capacity to grasp the ball in hands on the occasions ball is within two or three feet of the target‘. Between the three of these fellas, Reed has grabbed 75 percent of his targets in consecutive weeks, which is a heck of an accomplishment, all things considered. Snark aside, Reed is the most explosive-looking of the options Green Bay has running week-to-week, and I expect they’ll keep increasing his targets to see more of what they might have here, as the season is already a wash.
Reed’s matchup advantage this week sits at 72.4; if somebody on this team can make something exciting happen, Reed has certainly looked like he’s had that spark all year. I also would run Doubs out in a FLEX, almost exclusively because he seems to be the most frequent recipient of successful end zone strikes. He has scored in four of Green Bay’s seven games to this point, and while he can disappear from Matt LaFleur’s plans at any moment, those touchdowns count for something.
As for Watson, he went 3-for-8 last week for 33 yards on the heels of a 27-yard showing against Denver in which he caught three of five passes thrown his way. Those were his first two games back from a hamstring injury, but he still looks the part of the “unique athletic skillset guy.” No one outside of Aaron Jones has suffered more from the ineptitude of the Green Bay game plans than Watson. Unfortunately, potential doesn’t punch playoff tickets in fantasy football.
Speaking of the perils of potential: have we gotten all of the early preseason and September hype surrounding Luke Musgrave washed away yet in the raging rapids of tears spilling out of Lambeau? I hope so! One day down the line, this could be different (a refrain I could sing for almost every one of the players in this half of the article), but Musgrave isn’t worth holding, let alone starting, at this point in fantasy.