Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 5th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting Odds: NO -7.5, 41 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, Low-QB1)
Derek Carr has been on cruise control the last two weeks with consecutive 18-point finishes. This week he has a great chance to make it three straight weeks of QB1 performance, the Bears allow the fourth-highest points per game to opposing signal callers (22.25). I consider Carr an excellent spot start if you’re someone who lost Kirk Cousins or have your QB on bye, e.g. Trevor Lawernce.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Start, Sit)
Since returning in Week 4, Alvin Kamara has 44 targets, tied with Michael Pittman Jr. for 13th-most in the league. Kamara has 15(!) more targets than Josh Jacobs, the second most targetted running back. Those targets in combination with Kamara’s average of 18.75 carries over the last four weeks means his oozing with opportunities. Kamara is an easy set-and-forget RB1 going forward and with Christain McCaffrey on bye this week, he has a strong argument to be the number-one RB this week.
Jammal Williams on the other hand continues to be nothing more than a handcuff. He’s not seeing nearly enough opportunities to be fantasy-relevant.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, High-WR2), Michael Thomas (Start, Low-WR2), Rashid Shaheed (Start, High-WR3), Taysom Hill (Start, Low-TE1), Juwan Johnson (Sit, Stash)
Bad game last week for Chris Olave, in fact, his WR50 finish was his second-lowest this year. It had the main thing you like to see though, nine targets. He even managed to bring in five of them, but 46 yards on those catches led to the low performance. Olave otherwise has four finishes as WR25 or better, with three of those finishes in the top 18. I’m considering last week an outlier and confidently keeping Olave in the lineups this week.
Michael Thomas averages 7.625 targets per game (t/g). Here are some names with fewer t/g: Christian Kirk, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, DeVonta Smith, DJ Moore, and Tee Higgins. Thomas has more targets than some very talented WR2s and even some WR1s. The lack of touchdowns is the main thing holding him back, with only a single trip to the end zone this year. Thomas is worth a roster spot for the volume he gets alone, but his 11 points per game is what keeps me hesitant about starting him most weeks.
Rashid Shaheed had three targets last week, his second-fewest targets to date. That ultimately led to his best weekly finish of the season as WR8 with 24.3 points. That’s fantasy football. Shaheed is someone often mentioned in the Waiver Wire Podcast. He’s only rostered in 18% of ESPN leagues and 38% of Yahoo leagues. Shaheed is a great WR3 with upside and someone who should absolutely be started in any league with three wide receiver spots.
Who was the Saints’ rushing leader last week? You guessed it, Taysom Hill. Hill ran nine times for 63 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught his only target for 14 yards. Hill now has three consecutive top-six finishes as a tight end. In the first five weeks of the season, Hill had zero finishes in the top 16 and four finishes as TE33 or lower. That’s the Taysom Hill experience. If you’re deep in the tight-end wasteland or your usual starter is on bye (George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram) this is the Hill I die on.
Juwan Johnson came back last week after missing the last four games with a calf injury. In his return, he caught one of two targets for five yards. He’s someone I keep a close eye on and consider a great stash if you have the bench spot.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Tyson Bagent (Sit)
It’s been confirmed we’re getting another week of Tyson Bagent and by extension another week of sad Bears offense. Bagent has improved his passing yards in each of his last three games, with 232 passing yards last week. Unfortunately, last week also featured two interceptions and zero passing touchdowns, it was only saved by a rushing touchdown, and saved is generous. The Saints also allow the ninth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks (16). Even with the recent injuries and four teams on bye this week, I’m looking elsewhere for quarterbacks.
Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman (Start, Flex), Roschon Johnson (Start, Flex)
Last week both Bears running backs came crashing down to Earth. The game script was much less favorable since the Bears fell behind early. I expect another unfavorable game script (currently the line is NO -7.5) to hurt both D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. I’m lowering expectations for both backs, giving a slight bump to Johnson. Johnson saw three more snaps than Foreman last week. Last week it appeared that Johnson was getting eased back into the game, considering he had just missed the previous two games being in the concussion protocol. Last week featured Tyson Bagent rushing in for a touchdown, also hurting both backs’ value. I have low expectations for both backs and would not consider either above a flex-level performance.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Sit, Low-Flex), Tyler Scott (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, High-TE2/Low-TE1)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Chicago Bears offense operates through DJ Moore. And I give credit to the Chicago Bears for trying, Tyson Bagent had 37 pass attempts last week. For context that’s more than Joe Burrow (Week 8’s QB4) and Dak Prescott (QB3) had last week. While my expectations for Moore continue to be tapered so long as Justin Fields is out, the amount of passes the Bears coaching staff is letting Bagent throw is a good sign. Moore is 20th in targets among all wide receivers entering Week 9. This is the first week with Bagent in that I’m optimistic about Moore.
Darnell Mooney caught only one of his four targets last week, but it was a 41-yard bomb. He also had a rushing attempt for three yards. Mooney has flashes of a player you’d want in your lineup, but they’re too infrequent and too far apart for me to consider starting him in any situation.
Tyler Scott was targeted exactly three times in the last two games. He finished as WR61 and WR101 in those two games. There’s no fantasy value in the Bears WR3.
Cole Kmet went from zero targets in the win against the Raiders to 10(!) targets in the loss against the Chargers. In fact, Kmet was the most targeted player on the Bears last week. If the Bears are down, and I expect them to be this week, I’m hopeful Kmet can see a steady stream of targets again.