Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 5th, 12:00 PM CDT
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Betting Odds: NE -2.5, 39.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Washington Commanders
Quarterback
Sam Howell (Start, QB1)
It may be an understatement to say Sam Howell is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football. Despite averaging 18.6 PPG, Howell is currently only rostered in 47 percent of Sleeper leagues. The Washington Commanders are 4th in pass attempts per game, and Howell has some rushing upside as well. This combination makes Howell a low-end QB1 every single week.
Now, Howell doesn’t have the best matchup in the world, as the New England Patriots have only allowed 13.41 PPG to quarterbacks, and the over/under is 39.5 points. That said, the Commanders are 2.5-point underdogs, which means they’ll likely be playing from behind. Howell thrives in this situation and should be ranked around the QB7-QB8 range this week.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. (Sit, FLEX), Antonio Gibson (Sit)
Brian Robinson had a scorching hot start to the season but has taken a steep fall recently. The last time Robinson scored over 10 points was in Week 6 when he was saved by a touchdown. Robinson is not utilized when the Commanders are playing catch-up; this week, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites. He’s best left on benches but can fill in as a FLEX, if needed.
Even though Antonio Gibson is on the field more when the Commanders are trailing, he almost never carries the ball anymore. In eight games this year, Gibson has 20 total rushing attempts. Gibson could still be fantasy-relevant as a pass catcher, but he only has 20 catches on 24 targets. This isn’t a bad ratio, but it’s certainly not enough to compensate for his extremely low number of carries and inconsistent target volume.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin (Start, WR2), Jahan Dotson (Start, WR3), Curtis Samuel (Sit, Flex*), Jameson Crowder (Sit, Flex*), Logan Thomas (Start, TE2)
After dealing with a toe injury to start the year, Terry McLaurin has had an excellent three-game stretch. Since Week 6, McLaurin is averaging 15.5 PPG, good for a WR12 finish. Even better for these Commanders wide receivers, the Patriots have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers (34.97 PPG). Howell should have a ton of pass attempts if the Commanders fall behind, and McLaurin stands to be the prime beneficiary.
In Week 8, the Jahan Dotson breakout finally came! Prior to last week, Dotson averaged 6.6 PPG but he turned things around with a 10-108-1 performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. Dotson has talent, so I’m willing to ride with the hot hand in a pretty good Week 9 matchup.
Curtis Samuel had a good start to the year, but he lost a ton of snaps last week to Jameson Crowder and Dyami Brown and did not practice today due to a toe injury. Brown did nothing of significance on the field, but Crowder came out of nowhere to haul in 7 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, making his case for fantasy relevance. Behind McLaurin, it’s hard to see more than one other member of this Commanders wide receiving corps becoming a factor. Overall, I believe Dotson is the superior talent, which makes him the best start of the bunch this week. Let’s wait and see how things shake out with Samuel and his toe*, but it’s possible that he or Crowder could put up low-end FLEX numbers.
Logan Thomas has plenty of upside in this offense, but he needs to score a touchdown to finish as a TE1 on the week. In every single game that Thomas scored over 10 points, he had a touchdown. In games with no scores, Thomas finished with fewer than 10 points every time. The Commanders only have an implied team total of 19, so I wouldn’t be betting on Thomas to cross the stripe this week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Start, QB2)
On a week-to-week basis, Mac Jones should be viewed as a low-end QB2. Despite having a 20-point game against the Buffalo Bills, Jones fell right back down to earth in Week 8, scoring 12.2 points. The Patriots are expected to win this game, albeit in a close matchup. This should ideally result in a handful of fewer dropbacks for Jones. However, the Commanders have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 21.23 PPG, and just lost their two best pass rushers via trade this week. With that in mind, Jones should be ranked higher than usual, but expecting much more than 15-point performance would be a stretch.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, FLEX), Ezekiel Elliott (Sit)
It looked like Rhamondre Stevenson was starting to pick it up in Weeks 6 and 7, where he scored 18 and 14.5 points. Unfortunately, in Week 8, Stevenson’s production fell right back down as he only scored seven points. We have to drop Stevenson down to a flex play this week due to his poor performance and the fact that the Commanders have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs with 12.7 PPG.
Even though Stevenson has been bad, Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t been good, either. Elliott has one game over ten fantasy points, and that’s because he had a touchdown. There’s no reason you should be starting Elliott without a Stevenson injury.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Sit), Demario Douglas (Start, FLEX), Jalen Reagor (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit)
On paper, DeVante Parker is the Patriots wide receiver one after Kendrick Bourne’s injury. The bottom line is that almost none of these receivers have enough volume or talent to truly become fantasy-relevant. The Commanders have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers this year with 37.97 PPG, but I’m still not starting Parker, who’s averaging 4.4 PPG this season and is battling injury issues, as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t love Demario Douglas as a prospect, but someone has to draw targets in this offense. Following Bourne’s injury, Douglas finished Week 8 with seven targets. Douglas therefore looks to be the wide receiver who stands to benefit most from the loss of Bourne. I don’t love it, but if absolutely necessary, Douglas makes for a respectable low-end flex play this week.
Right now, Jalen Reagor is projected as the WR3 for the Patriots. There isn’t much to talk about with Reagor, who hasn’t done anything before despite plenty of opportunity in both Philadelphia and Minnesota. Reagor is averaging 0.4 PPG this year, and he’s in a bad situation. Please don’t play Reagor this week…or ever.
Hunter Henry has had a massive fall-off since Week 2. Henry scored 5.8 points last week, which was his best game since Week 5. It’s possible that the Patriots run more two tight end sets with Bourne out for the season, giving Henry more opportunity than he’s had in recent weeks. It’s also worth noting that the Commanders have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this year with 19.6 PPG. Based on how absent Henry has been, it’s hard to recommend starting him as a TE1, but this there’s enough here to make him a solid TE2 this week.
You can’t start Mike Gesicki with how bad he’s been this year as well. Gesicki is averaging 5.1 PPG and hasn’t scored above 10 points this year. This is obviously very concerning, and you can’t trust Gesicki in your starting lineup, even if the Patriots do decide to run more two tight end sets.