Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct 27th, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise NV
Network: CBS
Writer: Michael James
Hey gang, Michael James here filling in for Marco this week. Today we’re looking at the Las Vegas Raiders hosting their division rivals and trying to hand the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season. This looks to be a potentially low-scoring game as the Chiefs like to control the tempo while the Raiders are, well, the Raiders, so hopefully we can still see some points for our fantasy players!
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Start, QB2
Slow and steady wins the race, but Patrick Mahomes is really testing fantasy managers’ patience now. Now outside the top 20 on the season for fantasy, he has consistently brought on average 15 fantasy points every game. Marco has Mahomes listed as his QB9 however I will need to see it first to believe it. It’s becoming the old saying, if you need 10 points to get you through the week, he will get you 15 points. If you need more than 20 to out-duel your opponent, he will get you 15 points. Las Vegas’s defense sits just outside the bottom ten in points allowed to the quarterback position. In the best-case scenario, this will be the game that he breaks forth and throws a multiple-touchdown game that he hasn’t had since week three. Worst case scenario, the game gets out of hand quickly in the Chiefs’ favor and it’s even lower than the reliable floor of 14.5 fantasy points. Fun fact, Mahomes now has more interceptions thrown than he has touchdowns thrown this season. Okay, perhaps that fact wasn’t so fun for Mahomes’ managers.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt: Start, RB1
Everyone else: Sit
Las Vegas is the 7th-worst team in fantasy points allowed to the running back position and Kareem Hunt has now had back-to-back RB1 fantasy performances. He has become the workhorse in that backfield with two games in a row of 20+ carries. I think this trend continues to make it three in a row and it appears Marco does as well with him coming in at RB10 in his rankings. The question looming is the impact of the return from Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He has already returned to practices last week and could suit up for this game. I am guessing if we see him, it will just be competing with the change-of-pace role that Semaje Perine and Carson Steele currently occupy. Even with the possibility of junk time, in the only game where the Chiefs beat their opponent by more than 10 points, Hunt still got most of the work and the second leading in that game was Mahomes.
Wide Receiver
Xavier Worthy: Start, WR3
DeAndre Hopkins: Start, WR3
Justin Watson: Sit
Xavier Worthy has either gone big or gone home with his performances this season with two performances with more than 15 fantasy points, but three with less than 6 points. Lately, his target count is trending up but his receptions and yards have trended down. The Raiders have given up the 8th fewest points to the WR position this season. That could be attributed to opponents getting up big early on in the game and opting to not throw it, but that is what the oddsmakers think will happen here as well. Worthy comes in at WR29 on Marco’s list this week which reflects a risky start. With JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out, that puts Justin Watson up with the next-highest snap count in the receiver’s room, however, I am not expecting much from him in fantasy. But that is not why you’re reading this far into the paragraph. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury resulted in the trade for DeAndre Hopkins — so, what is he going to do? 150 yards? 3 touchdowns? In the first half alone?
You could look at his stats so far for this season, but those don’t exactly jump off the page at you. He has over a decade of seasons played in the league already. He has missed a game for injury once already this season and his last game saw his second-highest snap count for the season only to manage less than a single fantasy point. But that was with the Titans, this is the Chiefs — even though he has less than a week to settle into the offense, this is DeAndre freaking Hopkins, for crying out loud! You saw what Smith-Schuster did in week 5, right? Well, lucky for you, I’ve got an insider who is my go-to for all things up in the air with a very wide range of potential outcomes like this. My magic 8-ball says “Reply hazy, try again.” So, there you have it, I hope that gives you the inside edge for week 8.
Tight End
Travis Kelce: Start, TE1
Turns out the Raiders are inside the top 10 for points allowed to the tight end. But that never paints a full picture when it comes to someone of Travis Kelce’s caliber at tight end. Let us look at his past four-game average against the Raiders: 6 receptions for 49.5 yards and 4 touchdowns. A touchdown per game sounds pretty good. Except if you remember, all four touchdowns came in their first game against the Raiders in 2022 and he has caught 0 against them since then. Valuable lessons about averages aside, if you have Kelce it’s not like you probably have other options to roll the dice on that bring his high target floor to the position. Kelce has yet to score a touchdown this season and still has multiple games of double-digit fantasy points. Marco has him as his TE3 and I agree — this will be the week he breaks through for a TD celebration.
D/ST
Chiefs: Start
You got this site’s Defense guy filling in for this week, so I thought I’d throw a bonus at the oft-overlooked side of fantasy. Kansas City has delivered three decent D/ST performances in a row now with four interceptions over their last two games and less than 20 points allowed in each game for the past four in a row. Add that to them going against a Raiders’ offense that has turned the ball over 10 times through their last three games, this should be a great option to consider this week that will carry over for the next couple of weeks on top of that.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew: Sit
Despite making a bet that he could throw a football over the mountains, Gardner Minshew just barely ranks inside the top 30 at the position. With Aidan O’Connell landing on IR, the Raiders signed Desmond Ridder, but it is probably still too soon to see him take a snap in this offense. I will just list this stat: Minshew has not scored more than double-digit fantasy points since week three. He’s just not the same world-beater quarterback that defeated the mighty Ravens in Baltimore back in week two.
Running Back
Alexander Mattison: FLEX, RB3
Zamir White: Sit
This year’s Alexander Mattison Award winner looks to be Zamir White. It’s just poetry that the running back to do it to him is the namesake himself, too. What seemed like a sure bet to some in the last few weeks of the ’23 season has appeared to now completely cede the role over entirely to Mattison. There is an argument to be made that it was just White’s first game back from injury last week. I would argue that it doesn’t matter, the Chiefs are the #1 rushing defense in fantasy and the #3 rushing defense in the NFL. Still, Mattison has done more in the two games that White missed and when he did return last week, he received even more touches to make it three games in a row of double-digit fantasy points. However, I can’t deny it would be a total Raiders thing to completely reverse it now.
Wide Receiver
Jakobi Meyers: Start, WR3* (Questionable)
Tre Tucker: FLEX, WR4
DJ Turner: Sit
Kansas City has the highest QB knockdown rate and the third-highest overall pressure rating in the league. I feel there is not going to be a lot of time for the quarterback to progress through his reads. It does bode well that Jakobi Meyers is finally practicing again after missing two weeks without practicing at all. It bears monitoring to keep an eye on his status through the week as when he has been on the field, he’s been on the field for an average near 95% snap count. He commanded 28 targets spread evenly over his last three games before missing time due to injury. Those targets moved to Tre Tucker and DJ Turner in his absence, but not much was made of it. The passing attack overall has been sputtering, starting with the quarterback play.
Tight End
Brock Bowers: Start, TE1
It makes complete sense that the Chiefs are the worst defense in fantasy against the tight end position as I imagine it is hard for them to find a high caliber of talent at the position for them to practice against. All sarcasm aside, if there’s one aspect of this Raiders offense I’m pushing my chips in on, it’s Brock Bowers. Kansas City has been repeatedly gashed by this position all year long and now they will have to defend against the #1 TE in fantasy this season with the Raiders rookie. Bowers has seen double-digit targets in each of the last three games for a total of 36 over that span. He is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game despite only finding the end zone once all season long.
D/ST
Raiders: Sit
The Raiders’ third-highest blitz rate in the league helps explain the sixth-lowest air yards allowed per reception in the league. Kansas City’s offensive line will have their hands full with Maxx Crosby and his sixth-highest sack count in the league, registering at least half of a sack in nearly every game he’s started this season. However, with all that said, this Chiefs’ offense is still potentially explosive and isn’t any less dangerous to go up against just because it has yet to go off this season. You can find better options on the waiver wire.